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aka Dave · Joined: 02 May 2008 Location: Down by the river

This site is fairly rigorous in poll analysis.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

Ya-ta Boy · Joined: 16 Jan 2003 Location: Established in 1994

Here's a different map, from NPR that calls it 210 Obama - 200 McCain.

http://www.npr.org/news/specials/election2008/2008-election-map.html#/president-nprOvM/

Kuros · Joined: 27 Apr 2004

ontheway · Posted: Sun Sep 07, 2008 1:04 pm Post subject:

If Ron Paul stays on the ballot in Montana and Louisiana, those states are unlikely to stay in the shaky McCain column.

There are reports that Ron Paul has not been removed from the Virginia ballot, and he could still be added in other states.

Further, there is the possibility that Ron Paul will throw his support to Chuck Baldwin later this week would be another blow to McCain's chances.

The wild cards that will determine the outcome of this election are Poulin and Paul.

Kuros · Joined: 27 Apr 2004

Ya-ta Boy · Joined: 16 Jan 2003 Location: Established in 1994

Kuros · Joined: 27 Apr 2004

Ya-ta Boy · Joined: 16 Jan 2003 Location: Established in 1994

I'm skeptical of some of the Electoral College stuff, especially on Political Dashboard. For days they have said there is 'no information' on places like DC so don't list them for either candidate. WTF is that about? I'm getting the feeling that some manipulation of information is going on to get maps that show things closer than they really are, to jack up excitement.

Jandar · Joined: 11 Jun 2008

If you want more people to vote then raising the excitement is one way to do that.

Ya-ta Boy · Joined: 16 Jan 2003 Location: Established in 1994

Up-date on Real Clear Politics' Electoral College calls:

There has been movement in 4 states, all of it in Obama's favor:

Indiana has been moved into the Battleground category from a Toss Up state because McCain has slid to +4.7 (from +6.7)

Obama has also edged closer in Ohio: McCain +0.6 (down from +1.2)

Obama has widened his lead in Minnesota: Obama +7 (up from +4.5)
Obama has widened his lead in Iowa: Obama +9 (up from 5.3)

There is some math work to do, but not tonight.

contrarian · Joined: 20 Jan 2007 Location: Nearly in NK

Ya Ta you are using old stats. McCain is now ahead.

Ya-ta Boy · Joined: 16 Jan 2003 Location: Established in 1994

No, I'm using RCP's newest numbers, just out today.

They average a group of polls, not relying on just one. It goes some way in discounting jumps in individual polls and variations among polls. If McCain/Palin have moved into the lead, it will begin to show up in several polls. No need to shout from the rooftops over just one poll.

Ya-ta Boy · Joined: 16 Jan 2003 Location: Established in 1994

Here's another projection posted by agentx on another thread and stolen by me. It is a Democratic site and has Obama up by even more than most of the others.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=103x382137

Ya-ta Boy · Joined: 16 Jan 2003 Location: Established in 1994

September 10

According to the numbers from Real Clear Politics, the race has tightened up, although they still say it would be Obama 273 to McCain 265 if the battleground states went the way the highly questionable poll numbers are right now.

Need to win: 270 of the 538 total (435 Representatives, 100 Senators +3 for DC)

Obama has 157 electoral votes that are Solid (margins of over 10%)
McCain has 145 Solid electoral votes.

There was movement among the LEANING states since the last time:
RCP considers a state to be leaning if the poll margin is between 5% and 10%. Last time there were only 7 states in this group. Now there are 11:

Iowa (7) has gone from +5.3 for Obama to 9.0 for Obama.
Missouri (11) has not changed from +7.0 for McCain.
Wisconsin (10) has gone from +7.2 to +5.3 for Obama.
Oregon (7) no change from +7.0 for Obama.
Georgia (15) no change from +6.3 for McCain.
Minnesota (10) from 4.5 to +7.0 for Obama. (Was a Battleground state.)
North Carolina (15) from +4.2 to +7.4 for McCain. (Was a Battleground state.)
Montana (3) has gone down to +9.0 for McCain. (Was Solid for McCain)
New Jersey (15) down to +8.7 for Obama. (Was Solid for Obama)
Washington (11) down to +9.7 for Obama. (Was Solid for Obama)

Electoral votes LEANING to Obama: 60
McCain: 44

Obama: 157 Solid + 60 Leaning = 217 (Needs 53 more)
McCain: 145 + 44 Leaning = 185 (Needs 85 more)

BATTLEGROUND states

There were 10 battleground states last time and there are still 10, but with 2 changes (Indiana and Pennsylvania) (RCP defines a battleground state as one where the margin is +5 or less.

Colorado (9): Obama has increased his lead from +.4 to +1.0
Nevada (5): No change from McCain +1.0
Michigan (17): Obama has slid from +4.3 to +2.8
Ohio (20): McCain has gone up from +1.2 to +1.3
Florida (27): McCain has gone down from +3.1 to +3.0
Virginia (13): McCain has gone up to +0.7 from a tie.
New Mexico (5): No change from Obama +4.3
New Hampshire (4) No change from Obama +0.3
Indiana (11): McCain has slid from +6.7 to +4.7 (leaning to battleground)
Pennsylvania (21): Obama down from +5.0 to +4.7 (leaning to battleground)

Kuros · Joined: 27 Apr 2004

NC was never a battleground. McCain will win it.

What's surprising is how Michigan is moving towards McCain. Obama's going to have to fight for that one.

McCain's still within margins of error for FL, OH, VA, and NV. Given that this is after his bump, and doesn't consider 3rd parties, this is bad news for him.