Korean Job Discussion Forums

[endo]

I was watching CNN this morning and they mentioned that the South Korean spy agency stated that Kim Jong-il is actually fine and still fit to govern.


I simply don't believe it and here's why. Currently there is no publically stated plan in regards to who would take control over North Korea once the "Dear Leader" dies.

As a result, I think there's is a major power struggle going on behind the scenes in Pyongyang. Who's going to take charge? Kim Jong-il's eldest son? His other son? His brother in law? The head of the military?

I may just be an alarmist, but the situation could be really serious right now. More than we (the public) are currently being led to know.




And as a result the South Korean government doesn't want to inform the public (at the moment) in fear that it could cause panic to the markets and other areas.

I think Kim-jong Il had a stroke and is unable to function in his daily duties. And I also think the South Korean government (as well as the American and North Korean government) is buying time untill a clear successor is put in place.


thoughts?

[itaewonguy]

the governments need a villain!

[Ya-ta Boy]

When Daddy Kim died in '94 there were no riots in the streets down here, there was no chaos, there was merely a hopeful mood that maybe things could move toward reunification.

Why would things be any different this time around?

[Yaya]

[Newbie]

[endo]

I'm not saying there will be riots here in the south or mass withdrawles from bank accounts or anything.

I'm just saying that the situation on North Korea may be more serious than we are currently being led to believe.


And the death of Kim Jong-il and Kim Il-sung has two major differences:


(1) Kim Il-sung had already publically stated that his son (Kim Jong-il) would be his successor.

As a result Kim Jong-il was given ample time to consolodate power.


(2) Kim Il-sung was generally liked and respected. Kim Jong-il is not. And the economic situation is far far worse now than it was when Kim Il-sung died.

The North Korean people have gone through two famines, food rations have been reduced, and the general public has much more contempt for Kim Jong-il.

[Otherside]

and 3. When Kim Sung-Il finally kicked the bucket, Kim Jong-Il was had actually been in charge (in function, if not in name) for quite some time.

Personally, I think the death of Kim Jr, is a good thing. The successor cant *beep* up NK any worse...and it opens the possibility of some serious reforms and progress up North. I'm of the belief that re-unification is the North's best (only?) shot at actually improving the lot of their people. If anything it would definitly achieve in years what would otherwise take decades. Now whether the South would actually want to re-unify is up for debate, but one thing's for certain, the longer it takes, the less likely the South will be.

[soviet_man]

My view on the succession is that we must look to historical precedent.

In China following Mao's death in 1976, two factions formed within the Chinese Communist Party.

Hua Guofeng led one, advocating continuing the revolution and another faction led by Deng Xiaoping advocated essentially a rabid version of capitalism.

The same factionalism would likely occur in the DPRK. Nobody quite knows what the internal dynamics are, other than it is all but *certain* that there will be a group who will advocate continuing the status quo.

The alternative grouping would obviously be fewer, more isolated politically and generally more difficult to quantify, other than presumably be persons holding a view to advocate a greater opening up of the DPRK to the outside world.

It is impossible to contemplate that Kim Jong Il would not be aware of this historical precedent.

Any assessment of KJI's chairmanship from 1994-2008 would have to conclude that the preservation of the relative status quo in the DPRK is paramount to him and the current party organization.

It is thus a safe bet that there would be a better than average chance that plans are in place for a succession that would essentially retain the current characteristics and framework of the DPRK state without significant change.

The curiosity of outsiders will be to see what happens at the margins of society.

[Yaya]

I think it's safe to say North Korea's example is different from China's. The main difference is the handing down of power to another Kim family member, but since there is no clear-cut heir, the military might act on its own. Like I said, not knowing who is in charge could be VERY dangerous.

The No. 2 man in North Korea, Kim Yong Nam, is 80 years old and won't be around much longer.

[MissSeoul]

[cdninkorea]

From what I read, few expected Kim Jong-Il to take the North Korean throne either- most Korea watchers argued either the military would emerge dominant after the dust settled from Kim Il-Sung's death, or the whole regime would collapse. Again, from what I read, there's evidence that Kim Jong-Il had a hard time amassing power.

It seems more than possible that Kim Jong-Il's favoured son (Jung Chul?) may be the next dictator.

[MissSeoul]

[cdninkorea]

[spliff]

Kim not showing up for a parade is not proof that he's ill, he's been know to do this in the past. Also, the reports that he "collapsed" are merely hearsay. He could be just fine and most probably is.

[nobbyken]

Yeah, I saw him on the telly last night.