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catman
Joined: 18 Jul 2004
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 Posted: Thu Sep 11, 2008 6:46 pm Post subject: The Russians aren't coming |
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An oft-repeated refrain heard in the past month across the Western world is straight out of the Cold War: The Russians are coming, the Russians are coming! On the face of things, such alarm seems justified. Since their inexcusable invasion of Georgia, Russia's leaders have directly threatened Poland, grunted aggressively toward Ukraine and announced naval deployments to the Middle East and Caribbean.
Moscow has plenty of capacity for mischief. But it is wrong to conclude that events since August signal the resurrection of the Russian bear and a return to Cold War-style confrontation.
Despite the Kremlin's chest-thumping, Russia is a fundamentally poor, weak country. Its economy is a shambles beyond the energy sector, which accounts for at least 40 per cent of government revenue. Even within the oil and gas industries, Russian companies have an embarrassing record of developing resources independently of Western capital and expertise, and depend on markets in Europe. If energy prices continue their recent slide, President Dmitri Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin may have to lose some of their swagger.
The country's foreign-policy fundamentals are even less encouraging. Although its invading troops may have looked fearsome in Georgia, Russia's conventional military is no match for NATO � or China, for that matter. Much of the navy is rusting on piers in Murmansk. Their backup, a large nuclear arsenal, is unlikely to factor into future conflicts.
Moscow can also claim few allies worth having. While it does enjoy the amity of a few tin-pot rulers, such as Venezuela's Hugo Chavez, efforts at cultivating a partnership with China have largely failed. Beijing's leaders, it turns out, are less than sympathetic to the pieties of ethnic self-determination that swaddled the Georgian campaign.
In other words, Russia does not represent the strategic threat to Western interests claimed by some. Defiant statements aside, the Kremlin simply cannot afford to excessively antagonize the international community in the long term, as the Georgia war made clear. Bankers estimate that $20-billion in foreign money has been pulled out of Russia since the start of that conflict, and the Moscow bourse has dropped to its lowest level in years as a result. Capitalism requires Russia's leadership to behave.
An appreciation for Russia's obvious weakness should inform Western responses to its continued intransigence in two ways.
First, the international community has no reason to pretend it is treading on eggshells when dealing with Moscow. Russia is nothing like the Soviet Union. It can create nuisances, it's not likely to start a world war.
Second, Russian dependence on Western markets and investment should be used as both carrot and stick. Russia needs the West much more than the West needs Russia, and its leaders ignore that fact only at their peril.
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catman
Joined: 18 Jul 2004
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| Posted: Thu Sep 11, 2008 7:00 pm Post subject: |
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Palin said she would like Georgia to become a member of NATO even if it means war with Russia.  |
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Paddycakes
Joined: 05 May 2003
Location: Seoul
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| Posted: Thu Sep 11, 2008 8:40 pm Post subject: |
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| Palin said she would like Georgia to become a member of NATO even if it means war with Russia. |
She's probably made Bristol's hockey goon hubby her chief foreign policy advisor: "You f*ck with me, and f*ck'n kick your ass.... cause I'm a badass Redneck..." |
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sojusucks
Joined: 31 May 2008
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| Posted: Fri Sep 12, 2008 2:58 am Post subject: |
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I guess no one read this article:
http://story.northkoreatimes.com/index.php/ct/9/cid/b8de8e630faf3631/id/404861/cs/1/:
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Russian strategic bombers land in Venezuela
North Korea Times
Wednesday 10th September, 2008
(IANS)
Moscow, Sep 11 (RIA Novosti) Two Russian Tu-160 Blackjack strategic bombers have landed at a military airfield in Venezuela, Russia's defence ministry said Wednesday.
The Tu-160 Blackjack is a supersonic, variable-geometry heavy bomber, designed to strike strategic targets with nuclear and conventional weapons deep inside enemy territory.
The bombers will conduct training flights over neutral waters in the next few days and later return to their home base in Russia, the ministry said in a statement.
The planes landed at Venezuela's Libertador airfield and during the flight to the South American country were accompanied by NATO fighters.
'The flight itinerary extended over neutral waters in the Arctic and Atlantic oceans. The Russian bombers were accompanied by NATO fighters,' the statement said.
Russia earlier announced it would send a naval task force from the Northern Fleet in the Atlantic Ocean to participate in joint exercises with the Venezuelan navy.
Earlier on Sep 1, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez said: 'If the Russian Navy arrives in the Caribbean or the Atlantic it may certainly visit Venezuela, we have no problems with that and would warmly welcome it.' |
or this one (http://www.odt.co.nz/news/world/21836/russian-bombers-venezuela-raise-tensions):
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Russian bombers in Venezuela raise tensions
Home � News � World
Thu, 11 Sep 2008
News: World
Two Russian strategic bombers landed in Venezuela today as part of military manoeuvre - an unprecedented deployment to the new ally's territory amid increasingly tense relations with the United States.
The Russian Defence Ministry said the two Tu-160 bombers flew to Venezuela on a training mission and will conduct training flights over neutral waters in the next few days before returning to Russia, according to a statement carried by Russian news wires.
Ministry spokesman Alexander Drobyshevsky refused to say how long the deployment would last or whether the planes were carrying any weapons.
Nato fighters escorted the two Russian bombers on their way to Venezuela, the Russian military said.
Russia had said this week it would send a naval squadron and long-range patrol planes to Venezuela in November for a joint military exercise in the Caribbean.
The planes' deployment on Wednesday was certain to anger Washington. Relations between the US and Russia have been badly strained the war short last month between Russia and US-allied Georgia.
The deployment appeared to be a retaliatory move after the US sent warships to deliver aid to the former Soviet nation of Georgia, barely a month after Russian armor and aircraft crushed the Georgian military in a five-day war. |
This one also seemed to have slipped by (http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/20080911/venezuelas-chavez-says-us-ambassador-must-leave.htm):
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Venezuela's Chavez says US ambassador must leave
By CHRISTOPHER TOOTHAKER, AP
11 September 2008 @ 09:36 pm ESTNext Politics & Policy Article
CARACAS, Venezuela - President Hugo Chavez ordered the U.S. ambassador to leave Venezuela in 72 hours and said he was immediately withdrawing his ambassador from Washington.
In this Oct. 29, 2007 file photo released by Miraflores Press Office, Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez, left, speaks with the US ambassador to Venezuela, Patrick Duddy, in Caracas. Chavez said on Thursday, Sept. 11, 2008 that the U.S. ambassador has 72 hours to leave Venezuela and he's calling back his ambassador from Washington. (AP Photo/Miraflores Press Office)
1 of 1 Full Size
E-mail: Chavez said Thursday night that U.S. Ambassador Patrick Duddy is no longer welcome, just as his close ally Bolivia expelled the American envoy from La Paz a day earlier.
"They're trying to do here what they were doing in Bolivia," Chavez said, accusing Washington of trying to oust him.
"That's enough ... from you, Yankees," he said during a televised rally, using an expletive.
The socialist leader said Venezuela's ambassador to Washington, Bernardo Alvarez, would return to the U.S. "when there's a new government in the United States."
The move by Chavez brings relations with Washington to a new low and raises questions about whether the diplomatic clash could hurt trade. Venezuela is the fourth-largest oil supplier to the United States, and Chavez threatened on Thursday to cut off crude shipments "if there's any aggression against Venezuela."
He has made similar threats in the past, but the United States is his No. 1 oil client and taking such an action would debilitate his government financially.
Chavez, long at odds with Washington, appeared to leave open the door for restoring full relations once President George W. Bush's successor is in the White House.
"Hopefully, sooner than later, (the U.S.) will have a government that respects the peoples and the governments of Latin America," Chavez said.
Chavez warned last month that Duddy could soon be "packing his bags" after the diplomat lamented that U.S. and Venezuelan officials have not been cooperating in the war on drugs.
Venezuela's Chavez says US ambassador must leave
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By CHRISTOPHER TOOTHAKER, AP
11 September 2008 @ 09:36 pm ESTNext Politics & Policy Article
CARACAS, Venezuela - President Hugo Chavez ordered the U.S. ambassador to leave Venezuela in 72 hours and said he was immediately withdrawing his ambassador from Washington.
In this Oct. 29, 2007 file photo released by Miraflores Press Office, Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez, left, speaks with the US ambassador to Venezuela, Patrick Duddy, in Caracas. Chavez said on Thursday, Sept. 11, 2008 that the U.S. ambassador has 72 hours to leave Venezuela and he's calling back his ambassador from Washington. (AP Photo/Miraflores Press Office)
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E-mail: Chavez said Thursday night that U.S. Ambassador Patrick Duddy is no longer welcome, just as his close ally Bolivia expelled the American envoy from La Paz a day earlier.
"They're trying to do here what they were doing in Bolivia," Chavez said, accusing Washington of trying to oust him.
"That's enough ... from you, Yankees," he said during a televised rally, using an expletive.
The socialist leader said Venezuela's ambassador to Washington, Bernardo Alvarez, would return to the U.S. "when there's a new government in the United States."
The move by Chavez brings relations with Washington to a new low and raises questions about whether the diplomatic clash could hurt trade. Venezuela is the fourth-largest oil supplier to the United States, and Chavez threatened on Thursday to cut off crude shipments "if there's any aggression against Venezuela."
He has made similar threats in the past, but the United States is his No. 1 oil client and taking such an action would debilitate his government financially.
Chavez, long at odds with Washington, appeared to leave open the door for restoring full relations once President George W. Bush's successor is in the White House.
"Hopefully, sooner than later, (the U.S.) will have a government that respects the peoples and the governments of Latin America," Chavez said.
Chavez warned last month that Duddy could soon be "packing his bags" after the diplomat lamented that U.S. and Venezuelan officials have not been cooperating in the war on drugs.
Venezuela's Chavez says US ambassador must leave
Comments 0 Rating Unrated (0) EMAIL PRINT RSS SHARE TEXT SIZE: A A A
By CHRISTOPHER TOOTHAKER, AP
11 September 2008 @ 09:36 pm ESTNext Politics & Policy Article
CARACAS, Venezuela - President Hugo Chavez ordered the U.S. ambassador to leave Venezuela in 72 hours and said he was immediately withdrawing his ambassador from Washington.
In this Oct. 29, 2007 file photo released by Miraflores Press Office, Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez, left, speaks with the US ambassador to Venezuela, Patrick Duddy, in Caracas. Chavez said on Thursday, Sept. 11, 2008 that the U.S. ambassador has 72 hours to leave Venezuela and he's calling back his ambassador from Washington. (AP Photo/Miraflores Press Office)
1 of 1 Full Size
Related Topic
Get stories by e-mail on this topic.
BOL | RSS
RUS | RSS
USA | RSS
VEN | RSS
Venezuela | RSS
US | RSS
E-mail: Chavez said Thursday night that U.S. Ambassador Patrick Duddy is no longer welcome, just as his close ally Bolivia expelled the American envoy from La Paz a day earlier.
"They're trying to do here what they were doing in Bolivia," Chavez said, accusing Washington of trying to oust him.
"That's enough ... from you, Yankees," he said during a televised rally, using an expletive.
The socialist leader said Venezuela's ambassador to Washington, Bernardo Alvarez, would return to the U.S. "when there's a new government in the United States."
The move by Chavez brings relations with Washington to a new low and raises questions about whether the diplomatic clash could hurt trade. Venezuela is the fourth-largest oil supplier to the United States, and Chavez threatened on Thursday to cut off crude shipments "if there's any aggression against Venezuela."
He has made similar threats in the past, but the United States is his No. 1 oil client and taking such an action would debilitate his government financially.
Chavez, long at odds with Washington, appeared to leave open the door for restoring full relations once President George W. Bush's successor is in the White House.
"Hopefully, sooner than later, (the U.S.) will have a government that respects the peoples and the governments of Latin America," Chavez said.
Chavez warned last month that Duddy could soon be "packing his bags" after the diplomat lamented that U.S. and Venezuelan officials have not been cooperating in the war on drugs.
Duddy has said that deteriorating diplomatic relations between Caracas and Washington were giving drug smugglers the upper hand.
Chavez announced the decision to oust Duddy hours after saying his government had detained a group of alleged conspirators in a plot to overthrow him. He accused the group of current and former military officers of trying to assassinate him with backing from the United States.
U.S. officials have repeatedly denied Chavez's accusations of backing plots against him.
Asked about Chavez's remarks, U.S. Embassy spokeswoman Jennifer Rahimi said: "We saw the speech and we're investigating, but we haven't seen anything official."
Tensions between Venezuela and the U.S. grew this week after two Russian strategic bombers were deployed to the country at Chavez's invitation.
"The presence of those Russian planes in Venezuela is a warning," Chavez said. "There's nothing better to keep yourself from being attacked than to dissuade."
The president said that behind the conspiracy to overthrow him were "the same coup-plotters" who masterminded a failed 2002 coup--which he also blamed on the Bush administration.
Chavez ordered an investigation of the alleged plot, which he said involved an active vice admiral and other former military officers. He said his intelligence services had been "following this for some time."
Military prosecutors were questioning several officers about their alleged involvement, Defense Minister Gen. Gustavo Rangel Briceno said.
Chavez ally Mario Silva, who hosts a program on state television, first played recordings of the purported coup plotters' phone conversations late Wednesday. It was unclear when they were recorded.
Duddy has said that deteriorating diplomatic relations between Caracas and Washington were giving drug smugglers the upper hand.
Chavez announced the decision to oust Duddy hours after saying his government had detained a group of alleged conspirators in a plot to overthrow him. He accused the group of current and former military officers of trying to assassinate him with backing from the United States.
U.S. officials have repeatedly denied Chavez's accusations of backing plots against him.
Asked about Chavez's remarks, U.S. Embassy spokeswoman Jennifer Rahimi said: "We saw the speech and we're investigating, but we haven't seen anything official."
Tensions between Venezuela and the U.S. grew this week after two Russian strategic bombers were deployed to the country at Chavez's invitation.
"The presence of those Russian planes in Venezuela is a warning," Chavez said. "There's nothing better to keep yourself from being attacked than to dissuade."
The president said that behind the conspiracy to overthrow him were "the same coup-plotters" who masterminded a failed 2002 coup--which he also blamed on the Bush administration.
Chavez ordered an investigation of the alleged plot, which he said involved an active vice admiral and other former military officers. He said his intelligence services had been "following this for some time."
Military prosecutors were questioning several officers about their alleged involvement, Defense Minister Gen. Gustavo Rangel Briceno said.
Chavez ally Mario Silva, who hosts a program on state television, first played recordings of the purported coup plotters' phone conversations late Wednesday. It was unclear when they were recorded.
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I like Chavez's quote: "The presence of those Russian planes in Venezuela is a warning," Chavez said. "There's nothing better to keep yourself from being attacked than to dissuade."
I guess no one told them that Russia doesn't have any real political/military power these days as mentioned in the op. |
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catman
Joined: 18 Jul 2004
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| Posted: Fri Sep 12, 2008 7:25 am Post subject: |
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| Russia is not a threat to the West. |
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Kuros
Joined: 27 Apr 2004
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| Posted: Fri Sep 12, 2008 7:30 am Post subject: |
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| Second, Russian dependence on Western markets and investment should be used as both carrot and stick. Russia needs the West much more than the West needs Russia, and its leaders ignore that fact only at their peril. |
This is what's being done. |
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ReeseDog
Joined: 05 Apr 2008
Location: Classified
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| Posted: Fri Sep 12, 2008 7:19 pm Post subject: |
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| The US isn't going to war with Russia. Russia can barely keep her own shit togethter, let alone engage in a conflict with anyone larger than Georgia. |
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Ya-ta Boy
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994
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| Posted: Fri Sep 12, 2008 8:04 pm Post subject: |
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The Ruskies were only coming during the Cold War because it suited the paranoid Right to say so. The present incumbent did not invent the Politics of Fear. The Russians are even less of a threat than the Soviets.
Wasn't it just last week, or was it the week before, when the lights went out in Caracas or wherever. Hugo can't keep the lights on, kicks out our ambassador and now has invited Russian planes in. He wants/needs low level confrontation to distract the people at home.
Perhaps the best strategy for dealing with both Chavez and the Russians in Venezuela would be to hire Jon Stewart and Steven Colbert's scriptwriters to pillory their pretensions. |
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catman
Joined: 18 Jul 2004
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| Posted: Sun Sep 14, 2008 8:46 am Post subject: |
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| My worry is that the hawks will now try harder to get Georgia and Ukraine into NATO. This would not benefit the West in the least. It would only serve to antagonize Russia. |
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Joo Rip Gwa Rhhee
Joined: 25 May 2003
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| Posted: Sun Sep 14, 2008 6:21 pm Post subject: |
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| Ya-ta Boy wrote: |
The Ruskies were only coming during the Cold War because it suited the paranoid Right to say so. The present incumbent did not invent the Politics of Fear. The Russians are even less of a threat than the Soviets.
Wasn't it just last week, or was it the week before, when the lights went out in Caracas or wherever. Hugo can't keep the lights on, kicks out our ambassador and now has invited Russian planes in. He wants/needs low level confrontation to distract the people at home.
Perhaps the best strategy for dealing with both Chavez and the Russians in Venezuela would be to hire Jon Stewart and Steven Colbert's scriptwriters to pillory their pretensions. |
Yata the Russians were indeed coming during the cold war.
http://www.missilethreat.com/missilesoftheworld/id.136/missile_detail.asp
http://kr.youtube.com/watch?v=PnUiG9Nb1lI
The only use of the SS-18 was for a first strike. The Soviets tried very, very hard to obtain a first strike capability.
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| The SS-18 Mod 4 is an extremely powerful strategic weapon. It carries Multiple Independent Reentry Vehicle (MIRV) warheads, each with a nuclear yield greater than that of many contemporary missiles. It had range such that all major targets within the continental United States could be attacked. The SS-18 Mod 3 sacrifices the significantly more powerful MIRV warheads of the Mod 1 in exchange for the ability to strike an extra two targets and the Mod 4 is simply an upgraded version. The reported capabilities of the Mod 3 are insufficient for an effective anti-silo system, but the reported upgrades for the Mod 4 compensate for this difference. A SS-18 Mod 4 warhead has a decent chance at destroying a US silo and the probability of a successful strike can be significantly increased by doubling up on the silos. The SS-18, while not a perfect silo killer, definitely has some capacity in that area. The MIRV warheads could also be used to destroy population centers, making the SS-18 Mod 4 a viable asset for counter-value targets |
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mises
Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired
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| Posted: Sun Sep 14, 2008 7:15 pm Post subject: |
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Yeah, a couple Russian bombers in Venezuela. Oh my, the terror.
The day that those bombers do anything to an American city I will eat all the shoes of all the eslcafe posters. |
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Leslie Cheswyck
Joined: 31 May 2003
Location: University of Western Chile
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| Posted: Sun Sep 14, 2008 8:35 pm Post subject: |
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They may not be coming, but they are breathing heavy.  |
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soviet_man
Joined: 23 Apr 2005
Location: Seoul
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| Posted: Mon Sep 15, 2008 12:49 am Post subject: |
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I couldn't be bothered reading the thread.
But re: Russia, let me say, there is nothing new here. |
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mises
Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired
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| Posted: Mon Sep 15, 2008 6:01 am Post subject: |
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Hey, just awesome point SM.
Maybe there are cultural, ethnic and linguistic reasons for the bombers eh? I |
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