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aka Dave · Joined: 02 May 2008 Location: Down by the river

Polls are snapshots, but right now Obama is a 2-1 favorite to win the election. The apocalypse will not be televised (I hope).

http://blogs.tnr.com/tnr/blogs/the_plank/archive/2008/09/19/today-s-polls-obama-now-better-than-2-1-favorite.aspx

Gatsby · Joined: 09 Feb 2007

I'm afraid I don't buy it. The margin of error I believe is greatly increased in this race. There are at least two reasons: Race and the evangelicals.

A lot of people will not fess up to pollsters about their racial prejudices, which makes for error when you have a black candidate. This is well established.

Every evangelical in the U.S. is going to vote. Can the polls factor this in? Can the pollsters even reach people like this who homeschool their kids, who don't read newspapers because they are a corrupting influence? Will they even talk to pollsters?

Offsetting this somewhat, you have more young people who might vote. And there will be an increased black voter turnout, if the Republicans can't find semi-legal ways to scare them off from voting, like they did in 2000.

So it is a complicated picture. Without an 8 to 10 point lead for Obama, I would call it at least a toss up for McCain. And at this point, I would say it looks like McCain-Palin have it sewn up. Why? Republicans and evangelicals do not read newspapers or watch the news, beyond their own Christian stations or right wing broadcasts. So nothing Obama can say will reach them, but everything McCain says will reach them, without the fact checking contradictions that follow so many of McCain's remarks, over and over and over.

It's over.

Ya-ta Boy · Joined: 16 Jan 2003 Location: Established in 1994

In the last few days this week there has been a shift in the way people talk about Obama. I suspect it's the same at home. There is now anger at the administration. You can sense it in the posts. This is good news for Obama.

There had been quite a few pro-Obama posters, but now there are passionate pro-Obama people. The collapse has stirred the anti-admin people up at least as much as Palin did.

Things are looking much better for Obama.

mithridates · Posted: Sat Sep 20, 2008 6:02 am Post subject:

newteacher · Joined: 31 May 2007

I think that in addition you could say that the Palin honeymoon is over. The initial infatuation is gone and more independents are realizing that she's not even remotely capable of taking over the office if she should ever need to. Running a small city into debt and unsuccessfully trying to sell and airplane on ebay don't count as executive experience, and looking at Russia doesn't count as foreign policy experience. Aside from the experience issues people are also realizing that many of her views are pretty extreme even for evangelicals. The more exposure Palin gets the better the chances are for the Obama/Biden ticket, which is why other than the fluff interviews with Gibson and Hannity she's been hiding from the media.

Gatsby · Joined: 09 Feb 2007

newteacher wrote:

VanIslander · Posted: Sat Sep 20, 2008 8:20 pm Post subject:

as has been said numerous times

if the election is about the economy, the Democrats will win

if the election is about security, the Republicans will win

(I expect Bush to pull another international incident since Georgia isn't doing it)

Gatsby · Joined: 09 Feb 2007

Sorry, this election is about abortion.

Period.

Every evangelical in the country is going to vote.

How many people do you know are going to vote?

Will your next door neighbor who drinks a six pack a day vote?

Will the 30 year old high school dropout who takes your money at the Quikkee Mart vote?

Will the 25 year old recent college grad vote?

And, if they do vote, will they have read a single news article about the election?

Here's part of the answer:

http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0781453.html

http://www.civicyouth.org/?page_id=241

When most people don't vote, the groups that do can easily dominate an election.

Older conservative people vote more than young people. And in this election, right wing evangelicals are going to turn out in droves. Their churches will probably bus them to the polls.

It's over.

mises · Joined: 05 Nov 2007 Location: retired

Milwaukiedave · Joined: 02 Oct 2004 Location: Goseong

mithridates · Posted: Mon Sep 22, 2008 7:48 pm Post subject:

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/09/22/republicans-blamed-obama-gains-over-financial-crisis/

pkang0202 · Joined: 09 Mar 2007

Polls mean nothing until election day. John Kerry lead the polls leading up to the election.

Problem was, those democrats who answered the phones for the poll never got off their lazy ass to go vote.

Ya-ta Boy · Joined: 16 Jan 2003 Location: Established in 1994

mithridates · Posted: Tue Sep 23, 2008 3:45 am Post subject:

mithridates · Posted: Tue Sep 23, 2008 4:13 am Post subject: