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Ya-ta Boy
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994
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 Posted: Tue Sep 23, 2008 1:28 pm Post subject: |
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 That's a great pic of Obama with his dog and Lincoln. Something tells me the concept was hatched by a high school sophomore in the bottom half of his class. |
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Czarjorge
Joined: 01 May 2007
Location: I now have the same moustache, and it is glorious.
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| Posted: Tue Sep 23, 2008 5:47 pm Post subject: |
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Gatsby, are you trying to create cognitive dissonance in those of us with alternate political leanings? You keep repeating "It's over" as if it were true. Have you been brainwashed or are you attempting to brainwash us?
Or perhaps you are a true believer to such a degree that reality need not invade your world view? Does Rove post on Dave's Korea forum? |
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mithridates
Joined: 03 Mar 2003
Location: President's office, Korean Space Agency
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| Posted: Tue Sep 23, 2008 9:04 pm Post subject: |
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Two weeks ago it was 49 McCain, 47 Obama. Now it's Obama 52, McCain 43.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/09/23/AR2008092303667.html?hpid=topnews
Also:
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| Over the past two weeks, the percentage of independents with favorable views of Palin dropped from 60 percent to 48 percent. Among independent women, the decline was particularly sharp, going from 65 percent to 43 percent. Her favorable rating among whites without college degrees remained largely steady, but among those with college degrees, it dropped nearly 20 percentage points. |
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Czarjorge
Joined: 01 May 2007
Location: I now have the same moustache, and it is glorious.
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| Posted: Tue Sep 23, 2008 10:54 pm Post subject: |
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| I wonder why that is, Mith. Maybe indys are tuned into the news enough this time around that the McCain campaign's refusal to allow Palin to be interview honestly is turning them off. I think it probably has more to do with disgusst with the current administration's handling of the economy, and the realization that Palin is more of the same. |
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blade
Joined: 30 Jun 2007
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| Posted: Wed Sep 24, 2008 3:34 am Post subject: |
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Things are starting to look bad for McCain.
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Obama opens up 9-point poll lead
US Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama has opened a 9-point lead over Republican John McCain in the latest opinion poll amid turmoil in the financial system and growing pessimism about the economy.
According to a Washington Post-ABC News national opinion poll released today, Mr Obama now leads Mr McCain by 52 per cent to 43 per cent. Two weeks ago the race was essentially even, with John McCain at 49 per cent and Barack Obama at 47 per cent, the Post reported.
The financial crisis brought on the collapse of the credit market has become the No. 1 issue leading up to the Nov. 4 presidential election.
Fifty-two per cent of those polled said they believe the economy has moved into a serious long-term decline.
Eighty per cent said they are concerned about the overall direction of the economy, nearly three-quarters worry about the shocks to the stock market, and six in 10 are apprehensive about their own family finances, the newspaper said.
Half of the respondents called the economy and jobs the single most important issue that will determine their vote, up from 37 percent two weeks ago.
The poll found that more voters trust Mr Obama to deal with the economy, and he has a big edge as the candidate who is more in tune with the economic problems Americans now face, the Post said.
The Illinois senator also has a double-digit advantage on handling the current problems on Wall Street, and as a result, there has been a rise in his overall support, the report said.
Neither Mr Obama nor Mr McCain, an Arizona senator, has said he would oppose the Bush administration's financial industry bailout plan being negotiated with Congress, although both have been critical of it.
But the $700 billion price tag would almost certainly restrict the agenda and limit the number of costly programs advocated by whoever becomes the next president.
[url]
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2008/0924/breaking3.htm[/url] |
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Gatsby
Joined: 09 Feb 2007
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| Posted: Wed Sep 24, 2008 3:46 am Post subject: |
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Jeez, talk about winning the hard way.
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Economic Fears Give Obama Clear Lead Over McCain in Poll
By Dan Balz and Jon Cohen
Washington Post Staff Writers
Wednesday, September 24, 2008; A01
Turmoil in the financial industry and growing pessimism about the economy have altered the shape of the presidential race, giving Democratic nominee Barack Obama the first clear lead of the general-election campaign over Republican John McCain, according to the latest Washington Post-ABC News national poll.
Just 9 percent of those surveyed rated the economy as good or excellent, the first time that number has been in single digits since the days just before the 1992 election. Just 14 percent said the country is heading in the right direction, equaling the record low on that question in polls dating back to 1973.
More voters trust Obama to deal with the economy, and he currently has a big edge as the candidate who is more in tune with the economic problems Americans now face. He also has a double-digit advantage on handling the current problems on Wall Street, and as a result, there has been a rise in his overall support. The poll found that, among likely voters, Obama now leads McCain by 52 percent to 43 percent. Two weeks ago, in the days immediately following the Republican National Convention, the race was essentially even, with McCain at 49 percent and Obama at 47 percent.
As a point of comparison, neither of the last two Democratic nominees -- John F. Kerry in 2004 or Al Gore in 2000 -- recorded support above 50 percent in a pre-election poll by the Post and ABC News.
Last week's near-meltdown in the financial markets and the subsequent debate in Washington over a proposed government bailout of troubled financial institutions have made the economy even more important in the minds of voters. Fully 50 percent called the economy and jobs the single most important issue that will determine their vote, up from 37 percent two weeks ago. In contrast, just 9 percent cited the Iraq war as their most important issue, its lowest of the campaign. |
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/09/23/AR2008092303667.html?hpid=topnews
What does it take get through the noggins of these voters? A near meltdown. Well, if we get a complete meltdown, will Obama gain another 2 points? How about if Texas got hit by an asteroid? Is that worth 3 points?
McCain shouldn't be polling above 10 percent. If he wins more than two or three states starting with the letter A, it will be a sad commentary on the American voter.
I still say Obama is going to need an unusually big lead in the polls to win. Look at what happened to Kerry and Gore. This year the polls simply are not trustworthy.
Here's something, courtesy of Mith., that might be even more effective than a killer asteroid:
http://ie.youtube.com/watch?v=sSNkloIFTQ0 |
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mises
Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired
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| Posted: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:35 am Post subject: |
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Intrade has Obama over McCain by almost 10% now.
Barack Obama to win 2008 US Presidential Election 54.1%
John McCain to win 2008 US Presidential Election 44.9%
I'm wondering.. I hear about this so-called Bradley effect whereby whites exaggerate their willingness to vote for a black dude. But what about Chinese, Korean, Mexican, Latin and other non-white/black Americans? Do we know how much a non-white will inspire them to vote? How much of the Bradley effect can be wiped out by other ethnic voting participation? |
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Ya-ta Boy
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994
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| Posted: Wed Sep 24, 2008 1:37 pm Post subject: |
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There is no certainty that the Bradley-Wilder Effect is even real. After all, why wouldn't a raving racist just simply tell a pollster that his vote was going to the opponent because he likes his policy of planting more flowers in the park?
Very little is known about how people choose to cast their ballot. The fewer the facts, the more small 't' theories there are (in any area). |
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Kuros
Joined: 27 Apr 2004
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| Posted: Wed Sep 24, 2008 2:56 pm Post subject: |
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| mises wrote: |
| But what about Chinese, Korean, Mexican, Latin and other non-white/black Americans? Do we know how much a non-white will inspire them to vote? How much of the Bradley effect can be wiped out by other ethnic voting participation? |
Why do you assume these ethnicities will vote for a black over a white? I would wager to the contrary. Look at Obama's poor performance among Asians in California and Hispanics in Nevada during the primaries. |
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mises
Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired
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| Posted: Wed Sep 24, 2008 3:04 pm Post subject: |
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| Kuros wrote: |
| mises wrote: |
| But what about Chinese, Korean, Mexican, Latin and other non-white/black Americans? Do we know how much a non-white will inspire them to vote? How much of the Bradley effect can be wiped out by other ethnic voting participation? |
Why do you assume these ethnicities will vote for a black over a white? I would wager to the contrary. Look at Obama's poor performance among Asians in California and Hispanics in Nevada during the primaries. |
Well just from personal experiences. I have oodles of Chinese American friends and a fair number of white Latinos too and virtually every one is going Obama. Only the Miami Cubans I know are consistently with Mac. |
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Kuros
Joined: 27 Apr 2004
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| Posted: Wed Sep 24, 2008 3:16 pm Post subject: |
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| mises wrote: |
| Kuros wrote: |
| mises wrote: |
| But what about Chinese, Korean, Mexican, Latin and other non-white/black Americans? Do we know how much a non-white will inspire them to vote? How much of the Bradley effect can be wiped out by other ethnic voting participation? |
Why do you assume these ethnicities will vote for a black over a white? I would wager to the contrary. Look at Obama's poor performance among Asians in California and Hispanics in Nevada during the primaries. |
Well just from personal experiences. I have oodles of Chinese American friends and a fair number of white Latinos too and virtually every one is going Obama. Only the Miami Cubans I know are consistently with Mac. |
My guess (but I have no real clue) would be that your friends are educated.
Racism is kind of an ignorance thing, not at all confined to any one race. There was a sad moment in NV when primary voters were being asked questions, and a Hispanic voter says, "There's no way my fellow union workers (the union had formally endorsed Obama) will vote for Obama. No way." And a black woman looked up and retorted, "And why not?"
Oh, man. Great TV but bad moment for race relations. |
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blade
Joined: 30 Jun 2007
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| Posted: Wed Sep 24, 2008 4:12 pm Post subject: |
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| Why do people keep referring to Obama as being black? He's not; he's actually from a mix background and should if anything be referred to as being colored i.e. he has a black father and a white mother. |
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Kuros
Joined: 27 Apr 2004
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| Posted: Wed Sep 24, 2008 4:36 pm Post subject: |
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| blade wrote: |
| Why do people keep referring to Obama as being black? He's not; he's actually from a mix background and should if anything be referred to as being colored i.e. he has a black father and a white mother. |
Yes, he's black or African-American. The idea is that he looks black, so he's treated black, and thus subject to all the discrimination any other African-American might experience. Yes, African-Americans often do have white ancestry, and in Obama's case its quite strong. |
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Ya-ta Boy
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994
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| Posted: Wed Sep 24, 2008 7:05 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: |
| Why do people keep referring to Obama as being black? He's not; he's actually from a mix background and should if anything be referred to as being colored i.e. he has a black father and a white mother. |
To add to what Kuros said, 'colored' is not a very acceptable term any more, in spite of the name of one of the leading organizations--NAACP (National Association for the Advancement of Colored People). |
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mises
Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired
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| Posted: Thu Sep 25, 2008 6:46 am Post subject: |
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| Kuros wrote: |
| mises wrote: |
| Kuros wrote: |
| mises wrote: |
| But what about Chinese, Korean, Mexican, Latin and other non-white/black Americans? Do we know how much a non-white will inspire them to vote? How much of the Bradley effect can be wiped out by other ethnic voting participation? |
Why do you assume these ethnicities will vote for a black over a white? I would wager to the contrary. Look at Obama's poor performance among Asians in California and Hispanics in Nevada during the primaries. |
Well just from personal experiences. I have oodles of Chinese American friends and a fair number of white Latinos too and virtually every one is going Obama. Only the Miami Cubans I know are consistently with Mac. |
My guess (but I have no real clue) would be that your friends are educated.
Racism is kind of an ignorance thing, not at all confined to any one race. There was a sad moment in NV when primary voters were being asked questions, and a Hispanic voter says, "There's no way my fellow union workers (the union had formally endorsed Obama) will vote for Obama. No way." And a black woman looked up and retorted, "And why not?"
Oh, man. Great TV but bad moment for race relations. |
Yeah, they are educated to the undergrad level at least. But they tell it like every Chinese American is out for the dems. I have no idea. The Cubans are so far gone down the trail it is insane.
Anyhoo, Intrade is looking good:
Barack Obama to win 2008 US Presidential Election 57.0%
John McCain to win 2008 US Presidential Election 43.0% |
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