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| Who won? |
| McCain |
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29% |
[ 11 ] |
| Obama |
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48% |
[ 18 ] |
| Tie |
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21% |
[ 8 ] |
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| Total Votes : 37 |
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Message |
mithridates
Joined: 03 Mar 2003
Location: President's office, Korean Space Agency
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 Posted: Sat Sep 27, 2008 2:21 am Post subject: |
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| Ya-ta Boy wrote: |
Mith posted some really interesting numbers above. Compare them to the votes on this poll:
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Thirty-nine percent of uncommitted voters who watched the debate tonight thought Barack Obama was the winner. Twenty-four percent thought John McCain won. Thirty-seven percent saw it as a draw.
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(With 19 people polled so far)
42% Obama to 39% in the CBS poll
26% McCain to 24% in the CBS poll
31% Tie to 37% in the CBS poll
Even though the CBS poll was taken with uncommitted people, the results are almost the same.
The killer statistic is that 66% think Obama will be better on the economy and that issue is the one on everyone's mind.
RCP is reporting changes in the Electoral Vote count with a change in the totals for the first time this month. It doesn't look to me like people thought McCain did anything in the debate to halt the drift toward Obama. |
I was thinking pretty much along the same lines as this post after I saw the debate so it's good Ben Smith wrote it all out for me:
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0908/The_reporters_and_the_polls.html#comments
Basically that we spend so much time paying attention to the campaign that we often forget that Obama's still a new face to a lot of people and that they were probably expecting just some dude that talked about hope and little else, and were pleasantly surprised at his performance. |
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ytuque
Joined: 29 Jan 2008
Location: I drink therefore I am!
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| Posted: Sat Sep 27, 2008 5:28 am Post subject: |
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The Drudge Report with over 250k responses has McCain beating Obama by approximately 2:1
{{{{DRUDGE POLL}}}} WHO WON THE FIRST PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE?...
MCCAIN
67% 173,513
OBAMA
31% 79,516
NEITHER
2% 5,915 |
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VanIslander
Joined: 18 Aug 2003
Location: Geoje, Hadong, Tongyeong,... now in a small coastal island town outside Gyeongsangnamdo!
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| Posted: Sat Sep 27, 2008 5:47 am Post subject: |
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*beep* the Drudge
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the Drudge Report a "conservative bullhorn".
During the 2008 US Presidential campaign, the Drudge Report showed bias against Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama, while supporting the Republican candidate John McCain |
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drudge_Report |
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ytuque
Joined: 29 Jan 2008
Location: I drink therefore I am!
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| Posted: Sat Sep 27, 2008 6:44 am Post subject: |
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| VanIslander wrote: |
*beep* the Drudge
| Quote: |
the Drudge Report a "conservative bullhorn".
During the 2008 US Presidential campaign, the Drudge Report showed bias against Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama, while supporting the Republican candidate John McCain |
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drudge_Report |
Interesting that you picked the quote from wikipedia which suits your political view. Here is the entire paragraph.
| Quote: |
Charges of bias
UCLA political scientist Tim Groseclose and Jeff Milyo, Associate Professor, Department of Economics and the Harry S Truman School of Public Affairs at the University of Missouri, published a paper on media bias in December 2004[20] which concluded�based on a comparison of articles linked to by Drudge with Congressional voting records�that the Drudge Report leans "left and sometimes right" of center, compared to the average American voter."[21] The authors ascribe this seemingly anomalous result to the study's design, based as it is on links to other news sources, rather than the handful of news stories written by Drudge himself. Mark Liberman, Professor of Computer Science and the Director of the Linguistic Data Consortium at the University of Pennsylvania,[22] contends that the results were based on a flawed methodology;[23][24] according to Media Matters for America, a liberal political action group dedicated to "correcting conservative misinformation in the U.S. media",[25] �Groseclose and Milyo are former fellows of conservative organizations [and] the study employed a measure of �bias� so problematic that its findings are next to useless.�[26]
More recently Richard Siklos, an editor of Fortune magazine, called the Drudge Report a "conservative bullhorn".[27]
During the 2008 US Presidential campaign, the Drudge Report showed bias against Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama, while supporting the Republican candidate John McCain.[28]
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Kuros
Joined: 27 Apr 2004
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| Posted: Sat Sep 27, 2008 7:07 am Post subject: |
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| ytuque wrote: |
The Drudge Report with over 250k responses has McCain beating Obama by approximately 2:1
{{{{DRUDGE POLL}}}} WHO WON THE FIRST PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE?...
MCCAIN
67% 173,513
OBAMA
31% 79,516
NEITHER
2% 5,915 |
Internet polls are generally meaningless.
Here's a better digested read of the debate.
| Nate Silver wrote: |
My other annoyance with the punditry is that they seem to weight all segments of the debate equally. There were eight segments in this debate: bailout, economy, spending, Iraq, Afghanistan, Iran, Russia, terrorism. The pundit consensus seems to be that Obama won the segments on the bailout, the economy, and Iraq, drew the segment on Afghanistan, and lost the other four. So, McCain wins 4-3, right? Except that, voters don�t weight these issues anywhere near evenly. In Peter Hart�s recent poll for NBC, 43 percent of voters listed the economy or the financial crisis as their top priority, 12 percent Iraq, and 13 percent terrorism or other foreign policy issues. What happens if we give Obama two out of three economic voters (corresponding to the fact that he won two out of the three segments on the economy), and the Iraq voters, but give McCain all the �other foreign policy� voters?
Issue Priority Obama McCainEconomy 43 --> 29 14Iraq 12 --> 12 0Foreign Policy 13 --> 0 13==========================================Total 41 27
By this measure, Obama �won� by 14 points, which almost exactly his margin in the CNN poll.
McCain�s essential problem is that his fundamental strength � his experience -- is specifically not viewed by voters as carrying over to the economy. And the economy is pretty much all that voters care about these days.
EDIT: The CBS poll of undecideds has more confirmatory detail. Obama went from a +18 on "understanding your needs and problems" before the debate to a +56 (!) afterward. And he went from a -9 on "prepared to be president" to a +21. |
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VanIslander
Joined: 18 Aug 2003
Location: Geoje, Hadong, Tongyeong,... now in a small coastal island town outside Gyeongsangnamdo!
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| Posted: Sat Sep 27, 2008 7:51 am Post subject: |
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| ytuque wrote: |
| Interesting that you picked the quote from wikipedia which suits your political view. |
not at all bud.
ANY biased source is croc when it comes to polls
even those trying hard to be objective have polling biases
any poll run by people with a track record slanted one way or another is garbage. that's my point. full stop. |
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Kuros
Joined: 27 Apr 2004
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| Posted: Sat Sep 27, 2008 8:01 am Post subject: |
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Here's Fred Kaplan from Slate.
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It was odd that McCain put so much emphasis on Iraq. Yes, he supported the surge, which has played a major�but far from the only�role in reducing the violence in Iraq. But Obama could boast that he was against going into Iraq in the first place�which speaks more to the next president's judgment about getting lassoed into future conflicts. And Obama was correct that the surge was always, even on its own terms, a means to an end�a way to reduce the violence so that the Iraqi leaders could form a unified government. It was in this sense that Obama meant that the surge was tactics while the political goal was strategy. McCain overshot when he kept saying that the surge "has succeeded," that the troops will come home with "victory"�a word that McCain's demigod, Gen. David Petraeus, has many times explicitly declined to invoke, for good reason.
Obama also did well in countering McCain's proposal for a League of Democracy�a group of democratic nations that would confront Iran when the U.N. Security Council can't because of Russia's and China's veto power. The problem with this idea, as Obama noted, is that sanctions wouldn't be very effective without the cooperation of Russia or China. The issue at stake�keeping Iran from building a nuclear bomb�has nothing to do with democracy and everything to do with common security interests. Russia can't be coddled on the matter, but cutting them off through a new Cold War is a counterproductive idea. Besides, the other democracies�mainly Germany, France, and England�don't like the idea, so it's a nonstarter. It's a fantasy on every level . . .
My guess (and it's just a guess) is that by talking sensibly and coherently about issues of war and peace, arguing with McCain at his own level or higher�simply by holding his own�Obama may have effectively rebutted the charge and made McCain's condescension seem prickly. One could ask: If McCain has had all this experience, how did he get snookered on invading Iraq in the first place? If Obama's so naive (the tag that McCain threw at him several times), how did he see through it?
And does McCain really want to put such a high premium on the experience card right now? Next week, after all, Sarah Palin debates Joe Biden. |
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Ya-ta Boy
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994
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| Posted: Sat Sep 27, 2008 8:10 am Post subject: |
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Grading the First Presidential Debate
ADVERTISEMENT
John McCain
Substance: His arguments were hard to follow at the beginning, but he found his voice as the debate progressed, although he never seemed fully in control of his message. He had plenty to say about the economy, Iraq, Afghanistan, and Russia, but often bogged down his own answers when trying to unfurl quips and soundbites. Stuck with bumper sticker slogans on the economy, and while he got a bit more detailed on foreign policy, he stayed at his usual level of abstraction. If he truly knows more about the world than Obama, he didn't show it in this debate.
Grade: B-
Style C-
Offense C+
Defense B-
http://news.yahoo.com/s/time/gradingthefirstpresidentialdebate;_ylt=As.LSsdHcHYI6O9V3BKvutK2GL8C |
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Ya-ta Boy
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994
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| Posted: Sat Sep 27, 2008 8:16 am Post subject: |
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| Quote: |
Internet polls are generally meaningless.
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You're not dissing the poll on this thread, are you? |
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bucheon bum
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
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| Posted: Sat Sep 27, 2008 4:49 pm Post subject: |
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| mises wrote: |
| Sorry, three. I guess Leslie Cheswick is bummin around. |
I do believe the man has expressed his respect for Obama.
Personally I voted it was a tie, although the immediate reaction indicates Obama benefited more. |
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ytuque
Joined: 29 Jan 2008
Location: I drink therefore I am!
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| Posted: Sat Sep 27, 2008 5:02 pm Post subject: |
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I did my own informal poll among my friends. Everyone thinks their guy won. The few like me who aren't committed thinking it was pretty much a draw with Obama winning the economics discussion while McCain took foreign policy.
As my first amateurish attempt at polling, I don't see this debate having a significant effect on the polls.
Now that I think about it, perhaps McCain won. I don't ever recall a debate where one debater told the other that he was correct so many times. Obama must have said this at least 6-7 times. |
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Gopher
Joined: 04 Jun 2005
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| Posted: Sat Sep 27, 2008 5:59 pm Post subject: |
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I watched a worthless CNN segment on this this morning. They made a very detailed presentation on a specific audience that they knew watched the debates and then expressed their views on it. Who projected better on the economy? on Iraq and national security? etc., etc. They tended to favor B. Obama over J. McCain, sometimes by a lot, sometimes by a little.
Then the reporter disclaimed that this audience mostly consisted of Democratic partisans.
So the story was this: Democratic partisans who watched and then commented on the debate tended to favor B. Obama on the issues. Imagine that. |
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agentX
Joined: 12 Oct 2007
Location: Jeolla province
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| Posted: Sun Sep 28, 2008 6:37 am Post subject: |
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The key part to remember here isn't whether the partisans on either side thought Sen. Obama or McShithead won. The key here is whether or not independents and/or undecided voters thought Sen. Obama or McLobbyist won.
Let's check those polls, shall we.
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/09/27/opinion/polls/main4482119.shtml
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Nearly half of those uncommitted voters who watched the debate said that their image of Obama changed for the better as a result. Just eight percent say their opinion of Obama got worse, and 46 percent reported no change in their opinions.
McCain saw less improvement in his image. Thirty-two percent have improved their image of McCain as a result of the debate, but 21 percent said their views of him are now worse than before.
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But while eight in 10 uncommitted voters who watched the debate think McCain is prepared to be president, six in 10 now think Obama is prepared as well - a significant improvement from his standing among these same voters before the debate. The percentage of watchers who think Obama understands their needs and problems has also increased by 21 points, while a majority still say McCain does not.
Uncommitted voters include those who say they have a preference, but also say they could still change their minds. Before the debate, 36 percent favored Obama and 34 percent favored McCain. Obama now leads by 12 points among uncommitted debate watchers - 41 percent to 29 percent -- in their choice for president in November. But nearly three in 10 remain undecided, and most of those with a choice now say their minds could still change. |
The debates are one of the key opportunities to secure uncommitted voters. Whomever impresses them the most will win enough of them to carry the swing states---assuming the GOP doesn't steal/block votes again. |
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TexasPete
Joined: 24 May 2006
Location: Koreatown
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| Posted: Sun Sep 28, 2008 4:55 pm Post subject: |
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I'm going to say it's nearly a tie and give McCain a slight edge (and I want Obama to win). I think that after the tumultuous week McCain had, everyone expected him to royally eff up. That he didn't and seemed to hold his own will give his supporters a boost as they will see it as a testament to his strength to be able to bounce back like that.
Though i think Obama has a better grasp of the foreign relations nuances and details, i don't think he sells it right. He has to show the American people he has a backbone and there were a couple of moments during the debate where he could have really gone after McCain and didn't. I do believe Obama beat McCain on the economy though (McCain suggesting we suspend spending on everything except national defense, veterans affairs and something else i forget? Come, on...).
What i would like to see Obama do is go after McCain on the Surge and say something like: "Nothing the current administration had tried the previous 4 years had worked and there was no reason to think another idea hatched by Bush would work either." Though, Obama going after McCain by saying McCain likes to pretend the war only started after the Surge was a pretty good dig i thought.
McCain's name dropping was interesting. I'm not sure if that reinforces the meme that he's OLD or reminds people of his experience.
Clearly, neither emerged a star in the debate which makes the next one all the more interesting to watch.
The VP debate will be interesting too. All Palin has to do is not embarrass herself...and how telling is that? |
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