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| Relax |
| No! I'm angry! |
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25% |
[ 4 ] |
| No! I'm scared . . . and you should be, too! |
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6% |
[ 1 ] |
| Sure, in the long run we will be okay |
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56% |
[ 9 ] |
| Sure, I am relaxed, but you're still too calm |
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12% |
[ 2 ] |
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| Total Votes : 16 |
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Kuros
Joined: 27 Apr 2004
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 Posted: Mon Oct 06, 2008 2:15 pm Post subject: Relax |
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Take a step back. Calm down. Put less salt in your diet. Take the long view.
Its an expectations correction. Irrational exuberance is not best ameliorated by emotional hyperventilation. |
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Gopher
Joined: 04 Jun 2005
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| Posted: Mon Oct 06, 2008 3:11 pm Post subject: |
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I voted the third option. And I do take the long view, F. Nietzsche's long view: at the end of the day, we remain transient biological life on a speck of dust orbiting a sun that will soon, in geological time, burn out, leaving behind nothing at all in an indifferent universe. If anyone were listening, all of us, from the best of us to the worst of us will be able to say little more than this: I occurred.
What is the point of all of this fear and hyperbolic expression, then? |
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Kuros
Joined: 27 Apr 2004
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| Posted: Mon Oct 06, 2008 3:25 pm Post subject: |
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| Gopher wrote: |
| F. Nietzsche's long view: at the end of the day, we remain transient biological life on a speck of dust orbiting a sun that will soon, in geological time, burn out, leaving behind nothing at all in an indifferent universe. |
I didn't read that Nietzsche work. I thought of him as pretty irrationally exuberant, actually. |
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Big_Bird
Joined: 31 Jan 2003
Location: Sometimes here sometimes there...
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| Posted: Mon Oct 06, 2008 3:26 pm Post subject: |
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I picked the 4th option. Life has got to be enjoyed, and one shouldn't waste it stressing. But, neither should one become apathetic and do nothing to avert problems or looming disaster.
Edit: OK, I wrote that before checking the link. In the context of that, I choose number 3. I'm not going to waste my time caring - and just make the best of whatever comes.
Last edited by Big_Bird on Mon Oct 06, 2008 3:29 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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On the other hand
Joined: 19 Apr 2003
Location: I walk along the avenue
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| Posted: Mon Oct 06, 2008 3:27 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: |
| And I do take the long view, F. Nietzsche's long view: at the end of the day, we remain transient biological life on a speck of dust orbiting a sun that will soon, in geological time, burn out, leaving behind nothing at all in an indifferent universe. If anyone were listening, all of us, from the best of us to the worst of us will be able to say little more than this: I occurred. |
I notice the doctrine of Eternal Return is absent from your enunciation of Nietzshe's thought. |
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On the other hand
Joined: 19 Apr 2003
Location: I walk along the avenue
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| Posted: Mon Oct 06, 2008 3:37 pm Post subject: |
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As for the poll, well, like Gopher I am basically a materialist as far as the here-and-now-goes. But I do tend to focus on my own immediate well-being, irrespective of how things work out in the long run. If what I have heard about the Great Depression is true, then I don't think I would want to live through even a few years of that. Especially given that my life is such that a disruption of that order would probably have longer-term consequences.
So yes. You can put me down as a little bit worried. I do take some heart from the fact that only a few weeks ago, doomsayers were confidently predicting that we were right on the verge of 200.00 a barrel oil. |
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Gopher
Joined: 04 Jun 2005
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| Posted: Mon Oct 06, 2008 3:49 pm Post subject: |
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Yes, Big_Bird: the long-term view has its own vantage point, above the screaming cacophony of the immediate moment.
| On the other hand wrote: |
| I notice the doctrine of Eternal Return is absent from your enunciation of Nietzshe's thought. |
Nietzsche's thinking is no doubt larger than that which I or you have sampled and internalized, On the Other Hand. I assure you that what I cite above is indeed Nietzsche.
Last edited by Gopher on Mon Oct 06, 2008 10:46 pm; edited 3 times in total |
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Joo Rip Gwa Rhhee
Joined: 25 May 2003
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| Posted: Mon Oct 06, 2008 5:06 pm Post subject: |
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| As of yet the US isn't even technically in a recession. |
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Ya-ta Boy
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994
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| Posted: Mon Oct 06, 2008 6:10 pm Post subject: |
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| The US average growth rate of real per capita incomes over the last 190 years has been 1.8% a year, and the same rate over the last 10 years has been�. 1.8% a year. |
I'll be sure to tell that to the first homeless couple on the street who don't know where the food for their kids is coming from. I'm sure it will make them feel so much better.
There's another thread around where a poster said he (?) has been working here to save up for grad school next year. The Won has dropped another W71 so far today. The money to pay for grad school is beginning to look iffy.
Alcohol abuse, domestic violence and crime all increase when money becomes a problem. Families split up.
Saying, "Relax, things will be OK" reminds me of that scene in Catch 22... What was the name of the guy with his guts spilling out and all Yossarian can say is, "There, there"?
I can't choose just one emotion. I'm angry. I'm worried. I'm a little bit scared. I'm also a fairly optimistic person, so I know things will get better later. The trouble is, I'm not living 'later'. I'm living now and am concerned with how bad it might get and how I will get through it. I'm concerned that at 59 it's getting pretty late in the game to start over again. |
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mises
Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired
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| Posted: Tue Oct 07, 2008 10:08 am Post subject: |
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Should just be a severe recession but could be turned into a horrible situation where prices are inflating and assets are deflating. A double whammy that will just get worse.
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| Official says pension funds are down $2 trillion |
WASHINGTON (AP) - The top congressional budget analyst says pension plans have lost as much as $2 trillion in the past 15 months.
Peter Orszag told a House panel on Tuesday that the losses are likely to force many workers to hold off on major purchases and delay their retirements.
The panel was investigating how the housing, credit and financial troubles battering the economy have affected retirement savings.
More than half the people surveyed in a recent Associated Press-GfK poll said they worry that they will have to work longer because the value of their retirement savings has declined. |
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D93LQ3I00&show_article=1
The DOW will hit 8k or maybe 7500 and the Rogers commodity TRACKER 15-18. That is the bottom and going to be tough. By the time America crawls out of this the governmental entitlements crises may be starting to set in.
Dunno. I assume it will all be ok. If you are an under-30 with a good education, it is probably best to prepare for a career abroad. |
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Kuros
Joined: 27 Apr 2004
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| Posted: Mon Oct 27, 2008 4:44 pm Post subject: |
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Alright, here's an antidote to some of those derivatives debt numbers nonsense.
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Much Ado About Nothing
So what is the big deal about these credit default swaps? Surely, there must be something terrifying and new about them that justifies all this media attention? Actually, there really isn�t. That said, all derivatives allow risk to be magnified (which I plan to discuss in a separate article). But risk magnification isn�t particular to credit default swaps. In fact, considering the sheer volume of spectacular defaults over the last year, the CDS market has done a damn good job of coping. Despite wild speculation of impending calamity by the press, the end results have been a yawn . So how is that Reuters went from initially reporting a sensational $365 billion in losses to reporting (12 days later) only $5.2 billion in actual payments? There�s a very simple explanation: netting, and the fact that they just don�t understand it. As discussed here, the CDS market is a swap market, and as such, the big players in that market aren�t interested in taking positions where their capital is at risk. They are interested in making money by creating a market for swaps and pocketing the difference between the prices at which they buy and sell. They are classic middlemen and essentially run an auction house. |
Thus, the $62 trillion derivative figure is misleading, because that debt is spread among many parties who are gaining money from the same transaction. Thus, the net loss may be only several trillion.
ROFL, only several trillion. What? I'm not denying its a crash, people! |
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canuckistan
Mod Team
Joined: 17 Jun 2003
Location: Training future GS competitors.....
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| Posted: Mon Oct 27, 2008 5:18 pm Post subject: |
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Kuros that's all very nice but I've got a mum who lives off retirement income.
Her property taxes and cost to the run the house alone have risen dramatically these last years...she's always short the last quarter. And that's when the market has been good.
It's not even remotely comforting for people like her to "take the long view." |
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mises
Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired
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| Posted: Mon Oct 27, 2008 7:53 pm Post subject: |
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| We haven't even touched credit cards yet, and they are almost all subprime, and have all been securitized. In all seriousness, nobody has any idea how bad this will get. Robuini is now forecasting that the gov will be forced to shut the NYSE for a full week. |
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canuckistan
Mod Team
Joined: 17 Jun 2003
Location: Training future GS competitors.....
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| Posted: Mon Oct 27, 2008 8:20 pm Post subject: |
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Access to credit makes our world go 'round. It grows economies and companies and expansions and creates jobs.
Credit markets are frozen.
The loss of jobs will continue, defaults will continue, and consumer spending will continue--to drop.
At least we'll have cheaper oil for a while.
Merry Christmas! |
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Jandar
Joined: 11 Jun 2008
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| Posted: Mon Oct 27, 2008 11:13 pm Post subject: |
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In my life I have seen double digit inflation compiled with double digit interest rates and double digit unemployment, all this while the government in it's internal wisdom attempted to regulate the economy by enforcing a wage and price freeze policy.
Believe me this is not yet a recession.
However I have no doubt that one is coming and the policies that will be attempted to try to fix it will be just as stupid as they were in the 70s. |
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