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[Ya-ta Boy]

That's the title of a decent piece of political analysis I ran across. The first part is a brief summary of what everyone has been saying about the changes in demographics, then goes on to ask 5 questions about whether the demographics will produce a new 'permanent' Democratic governing coalition.

I think it's worth reading. Here's the subtitle and first paragraph, plus the 5 questions but without the discussion that goes with them:


For a decade or more, we've been promised an electoral transformation: Younger voters, minorities, and women will prevail over the older, conservative majority. Is this the year the predictions come true?

For a decade, Democrats have heard promises that a durable electoral majority was just around the corner. It's easy to construct such a majority on paper: Racial minorities and young voters (those born after 1978) turn out at record levels, working-class whites suppress their socially conservative leanings to vote their pocketbooks, and suburban professionals and their spouses vote together as unified blue households. Such a coalition could obliterate the aging, white, male, socially conservative Republican base that has dominated American politics for most of the past three decades.

1) Can democrats do (even) better among women?
2) Or will unmarried women drift right?
3) Are today's young voters locked in?
4) Is the GOP drive for Hispanic voters over?
5) How many conservative evangelicals are there, really?

***
http://www.prospect.org/cs/articles?article=five_questions_about_the_new_electorate

[Ya-ta Boy]

(I'm assuming Obama will be elected)

In my opinion, the coalition that Obama has put together will only last if he does a good job. The big mass of people in the middle of the US electorate is not particularly ideological. They are 'swayable' and right now they are particularly open to solutions. The governing party has first call on media time and that is a powerful tool. I watched it happen when Reagan was first elected. During his first term, I swear you could feel the ground beneath your feet lurching to the right.

If Obama can 1) present himself as president in a way that inspires confidence that things will get better and 2) that the way forward is to work as a community, not as self-centered individuals, emphasizing traditional values like hard work, toleration, progress toward the ideals in the founding documents, innovation etc. his governing coalition will control things for the next 30-40 years.

[aka Dave]

One take.
Chait's a smart guy.
http://www.tnr.com/politics/story.html?id=ee519051-33b9-4f93-98f9-05c0e33ab41e

[On the other hand]

I think that, when all is said and done, an Obama presidency will be put in power more-or-less by the same people who kept Bill Clinton in power. Probably there will be an increased black turnout, and maybe an increased college-educated youth turnout, but that wont represent a substantial incursion into GOP territory, since those groups already tended to be Democratic anyway.

Even if Obama does make some headway with disaffected Republicans, I think that support will pretty much have dissipated by the time the next election rolls around. After four years, people will have forgotten why they were so ticked off at the Republicans, and Obama will be viewed as just another politician, popular with his own party, not so much with the others.

[Ya-ta Boy]

[On the other hand]

[Ya-ta Boy]