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Lostone7
Joined: 08 Jun 2006
Location: SE Asia
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 Posted: Tue Oct 07, 2008 7:47 pm Post subject: |
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| Voyeur wrote: |
| Do you think a possible recession makes public school jobs more attractive since they will feekl less pressure and are less likely to suddenly go snakey on the teachers if the school starts losing money? |
Are you sure about that?
Stripped vacation!
jacking the way flights are paid (lost $450) on mine!
More free teaching
More watchful eyes and blame the waygookin
housing sub lowered - even talk about making u pay rent- other countries do right
New pay ideas (how to subtract cash from your pay)
and thats if you are just a teacher
if you work at the office..........look out! |
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riley
Joined: 08 Feb 2003
Location: where creditors can find me
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| Posted: Tue Oct 07, 2008 7:51 pm Post subject: |
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I'm a little distrustful of the OP's reason behind the questions considering his posts on this forum here are generally some form of selling the wonders of CDI. Are you honestly asking, or is there some other motivation, especially considering this.
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Voyeur wrote:
Should we work a little harder to stay in the good graces of our boss? |
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Juregen
Joined: 30 May 2006
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| Posted: Tue Oct 07, 2008 9:02 pm Post subject: |
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| ontheway wrote: |
This would mean a reduction in government revenues and where would they cut back first? A good guess would be foreign teachers. Send them home and keep the money for the homies.
This would also mean a significant reduction in the hogwan business, and while English would fare better than the piano and art hogwans, there would be cuts everywhere.
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Not quite. If public education reduces FT's, parents would be more inclined to send them to hagwons in order to keep the competitive edge.
Economics is never a straight line, you always have to take into account how different products influence each other.
Public education is different from Private, and serves different purposes. |
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marlow
Joined: 06 Feb 2005
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| Posted: Tue Oct 07, 2008 9:21 pm Post subject: |
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| Juregen wrote: |
| Not quite. If public education reduces FT's, parents would be more inclined to send them to hagwons in order to keep the competitive edge. |
Yes, someone has to lose, and long-term it won't be the FTs. Ultimately none of us have to be here, but Korea needs English. It's Korea's currency, we just get paid in it. |
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ontheway
Joined: 24 Aug 2005
Location: Somewhere under the rainbow...
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| Posted: Tue Oct 07, 2008 9:36 pm Post subject: |
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| Juregen wrote: |
| ontheway wrote: |
This would mean a reduction in government revenues and where would they cut back first? A good guess would be foreign teachers. Send them home and keep the money for the homies.
This would also mean a significant reduction in the hogwan business, and while English would fare better than the piano and art hogwans, there would be cuts everywhere.
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Not quite. If public education reduces FT's, parents would be more inclined to send them to hagwons in order to keep the competitive edge.
Economics is never a straight line, you always have to take into account how different products influence each other.
Public education is different from Private, and serves different purposes. |
I would agree with you if I was expecting only a mild recession.
But, based on a predicted 30% failure rate for small business, unemployment over 10%, and the won falling to 1500/dollar or worse, I would anticipate the possibility of nearly all public school foreign teacher jobs ending, and a massive decline in private sector English jobs.
At the same time, unemployment over 10% in many of the 7 English home countries will make the supply of available teachers much higher. Of course, they won't all want to work for the reduced real wage levels, but since real wage levels should decline precipitously worldwide, there will be a surplus of teachers available for Korea.
This is, of course, a very pessimistic outlook. Let's hope the economy does not turn out to be so gloomy. Actually, though, I expect things to be even worse. |
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hari seldon
Joined: 05 Dec 2004
Location: Incheon
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| Posted: Tue Oct 07, 2008 9:55 pm Post subject: |
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| ontheway wrote: |
What will happen in Korea depends on how bad the economic situation gets, and noone can predict that with certainty.
One of my Korean business friends says that economic forecasts for Korea show a significant recession coming with 30% of small businesses failing over the next two years or so. |
30% of small businesses failing would be comparable to the Great Depression. That isn't going to happen.
| ontheway wrote: |
This would mean a reduction in government revenues and where would they cut back first? A good guess would be foreign teachers. Send them home and keep the money for the homies. |
Just because government revenues fall during a recession doesn't mean the government spends less. In fact, it will probably spend more.
The government isn't going to cut spending on English education because an educated workforce is key to Korea's ability to compete internationally.
The government has already made English education a national priority.
Since most of the Korean English teachers are incompetent, it wouldn't make any sense to ship the NETs home.
| ontheway wrote: |
This would also mean a significant reduction in the hogwan business, and while English would fare better than the piano and art hogwans, there would be cuts everywhere. |
The government won't reduce its spending on English education, but if it did, the demand for English education at hagwons would in fact increase to offset it.
| ontheway wrote: |
At the same time, unemployment around the world will be rising, perhaps over 10% in much of the English speaking world, so teachers will become more plentiful at the same time that jobs are getting more scarce. |
Rising unemployment in the English speaking world would seem to have the effect of increasing the numbers of teachers interested in teaching in Korea, but the exchange rate and red tape will make the job less attractive.
| ontheway wrote: |
The demand for foreign teachers is likely to fall in every teaching market as this global recession gets rolling... |
The demand for English education in Korea is relatively inelastic. That means that Korean parents are reluctant to economize with their children's education.
| ontheway wrote: |
All currencies will be falling, but the won is likely to remain depressed versus the dollar, so salaries will be lower due to unfavorable currency translation,... |
The won has been the weakest major currency in Asia of late and will likely fall to 1400/$1. This makes the prospect of teaching in Korea less attractive to NETs.
| ontheway wrote: |
If you can get a good job and keep it, maintain your nominal salary in the local currency without cuts and only face losses due to deteriorating currency translation effects, you will be doing better than most. |
It doesn't make any sense to come to Korea to teach if you won't earn enough money in real terms (after currency exchange) to pay off tuition loans or other obligations denominated in dollars, pounds, euros or rand. So, if you're thinking of coming to Korea, jump on the currency convertor at http://www.xe.com/ucc/ and make sure you'll earn enough to pay your bills and save. |
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marlow
Joined: 06 Feb 2005
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| Posted: Tue Oct 07, 2008 10:44 pm Post subject: |
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| hari seldon wrote: |
| ontheway wrote: |
At the same time, unemployment around the world will be rising, perhaps over 10% in much of the English speaking world, so teachers will become more plentiful at the same time that jobs are getting more scarce. |
Rising unemployment in the English speaking world would seem to have the effect of increasing the numbers of teachers interested in teaching in Korea, but the exchange rate and red tape will make the job less attractive.
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A large portion of the unemployed aren't going to be people with 4 year degrees. Sure there's always the TALK program, but is $1000 a month and a home stay really attractive? Living with my parents and working at a grocery store would be more fun. |
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ontheway
Joined: 24 Aug 2005
Location: Somewhere under the rainbow...
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| Posted: Tue Oct 07, 2008 10:47 pm Post subject: |
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Hari,
Let's hope your optimistic hopes are realized.
But, despite the Fed dumping trillions of dollars so far into the economy to try to reinflate the collapsing, the bubble continues to collapse.
The Federal Reserve has created a giant bubble. It has popped. It is the same as the First Great Depression.
The Second Great Depression has now begun the same way. You should get the best possible job and try to hang on to it.
Yesterday, global stocks continued to collapse despite the central banks of the world dumping trillions of dollars into the markets. This is a replay of the Hoover years when the Fed tried and failed to reinflate the economy.
Then FDR made things worse and kept the Depression going till 1942. We can expect the same from Obama (or McCain, but he's got no chance.) |
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marlow
Joined: 06 Feb 2005
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| Posted: Tue Oct 07, 2008 10:51 pm Post subject: |
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| ontheway wrote: |
| You should get the best possible job and try to hang on to it. |
We need a new thread: What to Buy Your Boss During a Financial Crisis |
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hari seldon
Joined: 05 Dec 2004
Location: Incheon
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| Posted: Tue Oct 07, 2008 11:07 pm Post subject: |
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| ontheway wrote: |
Hari,
Let's hope your optimistic hopes are realized.
But, despite the Fed dumping trillions of dollars so far into the economy to try to reinflate the collapsing, the bubble continues to collapse.
The Federal Reserve has created a giant bubble. It has popped. It is the same as the First Great Depression.
The Second Great Depression has now begun the same way. You should get the best possible job and try to hang on to it.
Yesterday, global stocks continued to collapse despite the central banks of the world dumping trillions of dollars into the markets. This is a replay of the Hoover years when the Fed tried and failed to reinflate the economy.
Then FDR made things worse and kept the Depression going till 1942. We can expect the same from Obama (or McCain, but he's got no chance.) |
There won't be another Great Depression because the government will never respond to what's happening the way it responded in 1929. The government isn't going to shrink the money supply and raise tariffs.
Recession? Yes. Great Depression? No.
BTW, the average Korean probably believes that Korea's situation is comparable to the IMF Crisis of 1997. It isn't:
http://english.hani.co.kr/arti/english_edition/e_business/314708.html |
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ontheway
Joined: 24 Aug 2005
Location: Somewhere under the rainbow...
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| Posted: Tue Oct 07, 2008 11:31 pm Post subject: |
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In 1929, the Fed tried to expand the money supply, just as it's doing now. It just didn't work, and so far, it isn't working this time either. They haven't learned to follow basic economics yet at the Fed.
But, hopefully, you're right and the world has learned its lesson about trade barriers.
We'll see.
You only expect a recession. I expect a major recession, certainly the worst since the Depression, but more likely to be worse than the Depression. It can't be stopped unless we go back on a gold standard and shrink the government. |
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hari seldon
Joined: 05 Dec 2004
Location: Incheon
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| Posted: Tue Oct 07, 2008 11:52 pm Post subject: |
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| ontheway wrote: |
| In 1929, the Fed tried to expand the money supply, just as it's doing now. It just didn't work,... |
The FED is much more powerful today than it was in 1929. Between 1929 and 1932 the money supply shrank 30%. That won't happen again. It's also unlikely that another Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act will be passed.
Another Great Depression won't happen. |
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