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Will the won keep falling?
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Oliver



Joined: 19 Apr 2008
Location: Seoul, Korea

PostPosted: Wed Oct 08, 2008 1:07 am    Post subject: Will the won keep falling? Reply with quote

I am crapping myself. For 2.1 million won you are making 860 UK pounds a month. I am due to fly in a few hours and don't want to go...

Oliver
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Tobias



Joined: 02 Jun 2008

PostPosted: Wed Oct 08, 2008 1:10 am    Post subject: Don't come Reply with quote

If you're thinking this way and you've not even left your home country yet, it's time to cash in the ticket and stay put.

If you really want to do this, then come on. Having second and even third thoughts from the get-go? Then stay home for now. Wait until you feel more comfortable. You owe it to your future students to be on top of your game attitude-wise.
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esetters21



Joined: 30 Apr 2006
Location: Seoul

PostPosted: Wed Oct 08, 2008 1:22 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yes it will. Tobias gives good advice here. Don't come if that is your main concern. Good luck in your decision.
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ttompatz



Joined: 05 Sep 2005
Location: Kwangju, South Korea

PostPosted: Wed Oct 08, 2008 1:26 am    Post subject: Re: Will the won keep falling? Reply with quote

Oliver wrote:
I am crapping myself. For 2.1 million won you are making 860 UK pounds a month. I am due to fly in a few hours and don't want to go...

Oliver


no, it won't keep falling.

Short and not really specific enough for those economists out there but:

The economy here is based on value added manufacturing and is more diversified than just the US as a destination market. The cost of imports will be valued in dollars. The exports will be valued in dollars BUT the local expenses (the Value added part of the equation) are still denominated in won.

The weak won makes EXPORTS from Korea VERY ATTRACTIVE even in places in the US where the economy has tanked. People will find it hard to not buy a 52" LCD TV from Korea when the price is substantially less than the cost of a comparable brand from the US, Taiwan, Japan and very favorable against products from places like China.

As exports begin to flow again foreign importers will need won to pay for those purchases or the exporters here will need won to pay their staff and operational expenses.

This will put upward pressure back on the won and it will begin to climb again.

Short term - don't be selling too fast unless you are stuck between a rock and a hard place (and I honestly pity you if you are). The good news is that there is no significant change in the local economy and the inflationary pressures on domestic or Chinese produced goods is not that great (as compared to imports from the west).

Longer term - it will probably equalize again around the 1200/$1 range.

.
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esetters21



Joined: 30 Apr 2006
Location: Seoul

PostPosted: Wed Oct 08, 2008 1:37 am    Post subject: Re: Will the won keep falling? Reply with quote

ttompatz wrote:
Oliver wrote:
I am crapping myself. For 2.1 million won you are making 860 UK pounds a month. I am due to fly in a few hours and don't want to go...

Oliver


no, it won't keep falling.

Short and not really specific enough for those economists out there but:

The economy here is based on value added manufacturing and is more diversified than just the US as a destination market. The cost of imports will be valued in dollars. The exports will be valued in dollars BUT the local expenses (the Value added part of the equation) are still denominated in won.

The weak won makes EXPORTS from Korea VERY ATTRACTIVE even in places in the US where the economy has tanked. People will find it hard to not buy a 52" LCD TV from Korea when the price is substantially less than the cost of a comparable brand from the US, Taiwan, Japan and very favorable against products from places like China.

As exports begin to flow again foreign importers will need won to pay for those purchases or the exporters here will need won to pay their staff and operational expenses.

This will put upward pressure back on the won and it will begin to climb again.

Short term - don't be selling too fast unless you are stuck between a rock and a hard place (and I honestly pity you if you are). The good news is that there is no significant change in the local economy and the inflationary pressures on domestic or Chinese produced goods is not that great (as compared to imports from the west).

Longer term - it will probably equalize again around the 1200/$1 range.

.


I hope that this is the case. When do you propose this upward swing will happen? It has been falling since late last year and has fallen considerably in the last few weeks. It is projected to continue this way for some time. I'm not an economist but have an economics degree and am a realist

No significant change in the local economy? Where do you live and what do you shop for?
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hari seldon



Joined: 05 Dec 2004
Location: Incheon

PostPosted: Wed Oct 08, 2008 1:47 am    Post subject: Re: Will the won keep falling? Reply with quote

Oliver wrote:
I am crapping myself. For 2.1 million won you are making 860 UK pounds a month. I am due to fly in a few hours and don't want to go...

Oliver
The won will be hovering around 1400/$1 for the next 6 months. (Today it closed at 1393.9.)

The Korean economy won't recover until the American economy recovers and that's not going to happen overnight.
http://www.forbes.com/afxnewslimited/feeds/afx/2008/10/06/afx5511342.html

If you were taking a job at a private school, I'd advise you to ask for a higher salary.
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esetters21



Joined: 30 Apr 2006
Location: Seoul

PostPosted: Wed Oct 08, 2008 1:54 am    Post subject: Re: Will the won keep falling? Reply with quote

hari seldon wrote:
Oliver wrote:
I am crapping myself. For 2.1 million won you are making 860 UK pounds a month. I am due to fly in a few hours and don't want to go...

Oliver
The won will be hovering around 1400/$1 for the next 6 months. (Today it closed at 1393.9.)

The Korean economy won't recover until the American economy recovers and that's not going to happen overnight.
http://www.forbes.com/afxnewslimited/feeds/afx/2008/10/06/afx5511342.html


Good point hari. I didn't realize what it had closed at today. I think those projections are on track and as you said the Korean economy follows the US economy (I don't care what the naysayers believe about that).
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nuthatch



Joined: 21 Feb 2008

PostPosted: Wed Oct 08, 2008 2:12 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Oliver:

Quote:
I am crapping myself. For 2.1 million won you are making 860 UK pounds a month. I am due to fly in a few hours and don't want to go...

Oliver


Putting this out to Oliver and any others who are thinking of coming here, if you sense the slightest that it is not something you should do ...DON'T DO IT!!! Trust your instincts.

From day one, for many reasons, the whole thing has not been worth the money, and ESPECIALLY NOW, IT IS NOT WORTH THE MONEY! My net salary has dropped to around $1600, previoulsy it was over $2000. It is also expensive purchasing things in stores here...much more than in the U.S. ... though some people on this forum like you to think that it is cheap living here. Not so.

Also on this forum, many like to say that it will change back, but according to the economists I have listened to, and whose articles I have read, it would be one of the last places to come back. The U.S. and other European economies will return in possibly two years. It would be far, far, down the road for Korea because they do not have an innovative mindset/economy.

It sounds to me like many people who have been here a long time, and who have savings and investments here, are in denial.
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esetters21



Joined: 30 Apr 2006
Location: Seoul

PostPosted: Wed Oct 08, 2008 2:19 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I had this very discussion today with my kgf. Korea is going to be the first and hardest hit economy in Asia and will be one of the last to recover. Those were her words and I do not disagree with them.
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hari seldon



Joined: 05 Dec 2004
Location: Incheon

PostPosted: Wed Oct 08, 2008 2:20 am    Post subject: Re: Will the won keep falling? Reply with quote

esetters21 wrote:
hari seldon wrote:
Oliver wrote:
I am crapping myself. For 2.1 million won you are making 860 UK pounds a month. I am due to fly in a few hours and don't want to go...

Oliver
The won will be hovering around 1400/$1 for the next 6 months. (Today it closed at 1393.9.)

The Korean economy won't recover until the American economy recovers and that's not going to happen overnight.
http://www.forbes.com/afxnewslimited/feeds/afx/2008/10/06/afx5511342.html


Good point hari. I didn't realize what it had closed at today. I think those projections are on track and as you said the Korean economy follows the US economy (I don't care what the naysayers believe about that).
I actually believe it closed at 1395.
http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2008/10/08/business/AS-SKorea-Won-Woes.php
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bassexpander



Joined: 13 Sep 2007
Location: Someplace you'd rather be.

PostPosted: Wed Oct 08, 2008 2:25 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

S. Korean won drops almost 5 pct against dollar

SEOUL, Oct. 8 (Yonhap) -- The South Korean won plunged almost 5 percent to a near 10-year low against the U.S. dollar Wednesday on concerns that local banks and importers face an acute shortage of dollar liquidity.

The local currency closed at 1,395.00 won against the greenback, down 66.90 won from the previous session's close and the weakest level since September 1998. At one point, it fell as low as 1,399.00 won. It was the fourth consecutive session of decline.
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nuthatch



Joined: 21 Feb 2008

PostPosted: Wed Oct 08, 2008 2:27 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

another thing to consider and a good reason NOT to come:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/09/world/asia/09korea.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

October 9, 2008
North Korea Reportedly Tests Short-Range Missiles
By CHOE SANG-HUN
SEOUL, South Korea -- North Korea fired short-range missiles off the country�s western coast this week amid tensions raised by its moves to reassemble its nuclear weapons program, South Korean media reported on Wednesday.

North Korea, launched two missiles on Tuesday toward international waters between the North and China, South Korea�s Yonhap news agency reported, quoting an unnamed government source.

North Korea launched the missiles from a naval base in Chodo, an island about 60 miles southwest of Pyongyang, said Chosun Ilbo, a mass-circulation daily in Seoul, which also quoted an unnamed government source.

Chosun Ilbo said the number of rockets fired was unknownbut that they were either KN-01 land-to-sea missiles or Styx ship-to-ship missiles.

North Korea has deployed more missiles around the island and declared it a no-sail zone, meaning that it may launch more missiles to mark the Oct. 10 anniversary of the ruling Workers Party of Korea, the newspaper quoted the government source as saying.

But another mass-circulation newspaper, JoongAng Ilbo, said the two missiles fired on Tuesday were air-to-ship missiles launched from an IL-28 North Korean bomber.

�We cannot confirm these reports because it�s an intelligence matter,� said a spokesman at the South Korean military�s Office of Joint Chiefs of Staff, who spoke on customary condition of anonymity.

Attention is focused on whether North Korea�s leader, Kim Jong-il, reportedly ill after suffering a stroke, will attend the party anniversary on Friday. Over the weekend, the North�s state-run media reported that Mr. Kim watched a soccer match in his first public appearance since mid-August, but they did not carry his photo or video footage.

South Korea usually dismisses short-range missile tests by the North as part of routine military exercise. But analysts say that the North tests its missiles when it seeks to bolster its bargaining power by escalating tensions.

In March, North Korea test-fired a barrage of short-range missiles off its western coast, while threatening to slow down the disablement of its nuclear weapons facilities in Yongbyon, north of Pyongyang. North Korea stopped disabling the Yongbyon complex in August, angry that the United States did not remove it from its list of state sponsors of terrorism.

Last month, it began reassembling the facilities, which the North had used to produce weapons-grade plutonium. Christopher R. Hill, the senior American envoy for North Korea, visited Pyongyang last week to try to find a way to salvage the nuclear disarmament deal.

North Korea conducted its only known nuclear test in October 2006. It is unknown whether the North has the technology to arm its missiles with nuclear warheads.

North Korea has a large arsenal of missiles, including ballistic weapons that can hit all of South Korea and Japan. Missile experts say that the North is also developing a long-range Taepodong missile series capable, when fully developed, of reaching parts of North America.
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Mr. Pink



Joined: 21 Oct 2003
Location: China

PostPosted: Wed Oct 08, 2008 2:52 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

You have to realize that economies are tanking in North America. When people keep selling off massive amounts of shares, that means the demand for dollars increases, thus its value increases.

Canada lost 3 cents to the US dollar in one day...yes ONE day. I know its normal for the Korean won to go up and down crazy amounts like that in a day, but not in Canada. The reason? The TSE lost like 1/3 of its value in the past 4 days of trading.


Thinking of coming home cause the exchange rate sucks: news flash, jobs are going to start being lost if this economic trend continues.
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broken76



Joined: 27 Jan 2008

PostPosted: Wed Oct 08, 2008 2:54 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

If you need to send home money on a monthly basis it's not a good time to come. If you can save your money here and exchange it later on it's fine. It may drop a bit more but it will go back to the usually rates after a few months.
For those that don't have expenses back home it really shouldn't affect their daily lives too much except for higher inflation which would pretty much be in affect worldwide.
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sojourner1



Joined: 17 Apr 2007
Location: Where meggi swim and 2 wheeled tractors go sput put chug alugg pug pug

PostPosted: Wed Oct 08, 2008 3:35 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Come on and see the world. Who knows, you might get very lucky in life.
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