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mises
Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired
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 Posted: Fri Oct 10, 2008 5:46 am Post subject: Dow 7,000 Likely 'Sometime Next Year' |
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Roubini: Rate Cuts Reduce Crash Risk, But Dow 7,000 Likely 'Sometime Next Year'
Today's global rate cuts have reduced the risk of a market crash, but won't resolve the underlying crisis, says NYU economist Nouriel Roubini of RGE Monitor.
But the financial market crisis has unfolded even quicker than Roubini expected (which is saying something), and the economist now thinks the Dow and S&P will suffer 50% declines from last October's peak vs. 40% previously.
In other words, the Dow is going to 7,000, but over the course of months vs. days if Roubini is right, as -- unfortunately for bulls -- he mostly has been for the past two years.
"The policy response is going to become more aggressive [but] a steady flow of bad financial and macro economic news is going to push down equity markets," he says, forecasting a real bottom won't be hit until "sometime next year."
Because of growing slack in the global economy, Roubini says deflation is going to become a much bigger threat in the next six months vs. inflation. In such an environment, cash, Treasuries and gold are the only safe bets he says -- provided your holdings are within the FDIC's new $250,000 insurance cap. |
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/91357/Roubini-Rate-Cuts-Reduce-Crash-Risk-But-Dow-7000-Likely-%27Sometime-Next-Year%27?tickers=^DJI,^GSPC,^IXIC,SPX,DIA
That will be a serious reduction in wealth and financial security. What are all these almost retiring baby boomers going to do? |
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ontheway
Joined: 24 Aug 2005
Location: Somewhere under the rainbow...
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| Posted: Fri Oct 10, 2008 6:02 am Post subject: |
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This is the financial meltdown.
The socialist Federal Reserve system's fiat money meltdown.
Coming closely behind will be the entitlements meltdown. The $70 trillion and rapidly growing current Federal debt that can never be paid.
So, the socialist house of cards will collapse.
Most of the baby boomers will have to work until they die.
After we get on a 100% gold standard, young workers will have time to save and invest for their own retirements. Hopefully no one will be foolish enough to fall for the socialists' lies about the government providing for your health or retirement. It should be obvious to all by now; and after this collapse and the entitlements collapse, there will be few whose religious faith in socialism will not have died.
Everything done by government is socialism.
Socialism always fails. |
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bacasper
Joined: 26 Mar 2007
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| Posted: Fri Oct 10, 2008 6:14 am Post subject: |
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So I may as well stop paying into social security now?
Does anyone have any idea of how it will be affected by this collapse? |
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ontheway
Joined: 24 Aug 2005
Location: Somewhere under the rainbow...
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| Posted: Fri Oct 10, 2008 6:44 am Post subject: |
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Without the current collapse, Social Security would likely have to be abandoned before 2030.
Looks like it'll be gone sooner than that.
RE: the op:
7000 on the Dow could be here by election day.
It was below 7900 earlier this morning.
So far, today:
| Quote: |
| The Dow fell 210.50, or 2.45 percent, to 8,368.60 after dropping 696 in the first minutes of the session. The Standard & Poor's 500 index was off 20.56, or 2.26 percent, at 889.36, while the Nasdaq composite index fell 19.98, or 1.21 percent, 1,625.14. |
Right Now:
Dow Jones Industrial Average(DJI: ^DJI)
Index Value: 8,331.08
Trade Time: 10:39AM ET
Change: -248.11 (2.89%)
Prev Close: 8,579.19
Open: 8,568.67
Day's Range: 7888.48 - 8664.81
52wk Range: 8,523.27 - 14,280.00 |
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huffdaddy
Joined: 25 Nov 2005
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| Posted: Fri Oct 10, 2008 7:20 am Post subject: |
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| bacasper wrote: |
So I may as well stop paying into social security now?
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You live in Korea and pay social security? Why? |
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mises
Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired
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| Posted: Fri Oct 10, 2008 8:02 am Post subject: |
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Dow is already down more than 5% today. It looks like it could be in the 7,000's today, though I suspect it would bounce back over 8k by the end of the trading day.
Things are moving fast. |
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bacasper
Joined: 26 Mar 2007
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| Posted: Fri Oct 10, 2008 8:04 am Post subject: |
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| huffdaddy wrote: |
| bacasper wrote: |
So I may as well stop paying into social security now?
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You live in Korea and pay social security? Why? |
You can collect it even if overseas. I have to pay for two more years before I qualify, so I want to know if I should even bother.
Are we just going to wake up one day (soon) and find out that the government says, "Sorry, people, but you know that money you were expecting to live on in your retirement? I'm afraid you are out of luck. We're broke."
People will go nuts when they hear that. No wonder the army is being deployed on US streets already. |
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mises
Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired
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| Posted: Fri Oct 10, 2008 8:39 am Post subject: |
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From a headline on, ugh, Drudge:
| Quote: |
| Italian Prime Minister Berlusconi said political leaders discussing idea of closing world's financial markets while they 'rewrite the rules of international finance'... |
First, this is really amazing. Second, America will not be writing those rules with herself in mind this time. |
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ontheway
Joined: 24 Aug 2005
Location: Somewhere under the rainbow...
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| Posted: Fri Oct 10, 2008 9:39 am Post subject: |
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Dow Jones Industrial Average(DJI: ^DJI)
Index Value: 8,167.49
Trade Time: 1:34PM ET
Change: 411.70 (4.80%)
Prev Close: 8,579.19
Open: 8,568.67
Day's Range: 7882.51 - 8687.11
52wk Range: 8,523.27 - 14,280.00
$3 trillion spent or promised by the Fed, so far, to reinflate the bubble. $830 billion bailout package. Over $1 trillion by other nations.
They cannot reinflate this bubble.
The Socialist Fiat money bubble is collapsing.
The Fed has failed. The government has failed. Socialism has failed.
Keynesian socialism lies dead and the stink is blowing around the globe. |
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ontheway
Joined: 24 Aug 2005
Location: Somewhere under the rainbow...
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| Posted: Fri Oct 10, 2008 9:55 am Post subject: |
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Testing new lows before the weekend. This will be a LONG worrying weekend. Where will we reopen on Monday? Worried investers are thinking, maybe they should just get out before the weekend. Others think its too late, and they'll just wait. But, a few more down days and they'll run just to salvage what they can.
Dow Jones Industrial Average(DJI: ^DJI)
Index Value: 8,084.89
Trade Time: 1:46PM ET
Change: 494.30 (5.76%)
Prev Close: 8,579.19
Open: 8,568.67
Day's Range: 7882.51 - 8687.11
52wk Range: 8,523.27 - 14,280.00
Index Value: 8,012.57
Trade Time: 1:51PM ET
Change: 566.62 (6.60%)
Prev Close: 8,579.19
Open: 8,568.67
Day's Range: 7882.51 - 8687.11
52wk Range: 8,523.27 - 14,280.00
zig zag zig zag but still downward ... |
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mises
Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired
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| Posted: Fri Oct 10, 2008 9:57 am Post subject: |
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| Good. Get his bandaid off as fast as possible. Nothing can stop the falls. |
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Kuros
Joined: 27 Apr 2004
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| Posted: Fri Oct 10, 2008 10:53 am Post subject: |
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7,000? Wasn't the Dow at 7,000 in 1995?
I'm starting to believe this is all a great, great opportunity. Flush those bad investments out and start over with investments in green technology and construction in urban areas.
My personal and amateur investment advice is looking into stocks for innovations that may seem like a good idea. Buy them now. They may stay low for a little while but eventually this train is going to ride back up. |
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mindmetoo
Joined: 02 Feb 2004
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| Posted: Sat Oct 11, 2008 3:49 am Post subject: |
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I was listening to NPR Money podcast and it was suggested a better metric is watching the 3 month bond rate. This is how much the US government is paying to borrow money short term. This is also the safest investment on the planet. The US can basically print money if it needs to honor its bond. Note the current rate at .11. Basically people are happy to throw their money at the treasury so simply get their money back 3 months from now without a loss. If that number goes down ever more, that's a bad bad sign. People aren't lending money out to business but rather lending it to the government. If that number goes up, that's an indication people are feeling safer about lending money.
http://finance.yahoo.com/bonds |
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gangpae
Joined: 03 Sep 2007
Location: Busan
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| Posted: Sat Oct 11, 2008 4:56 am Post subject: |
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| ontheway wrote: |
Dow Jones Industrial Average(DJI: ^DJI)
Index Value: 8,167.49
Trade Time: 1:34PM ET
Change: 411.70 (4.80%)
Prev Close: 8,579.19
Open: 8,568.67
Day's Range: 7882.51 - 8687.11
52wk Range: 8,523.27 - 14,280.00
$3 trillion spent or promised by the Fed, so far, to reinflate the bubble. $830 billion bailout package. Over $1 trillion by other nations.
They cannot reinflate this bubble.
The Socialist Fiat money bubble is collapsing.
The Fed has failed. The government has failed. Socialism has failed.
Keynesian socialism lies dead and the stink is blowing around the globe. |
Congratulations! Your infinitesimally minute understanding of economics is just enough to make you sound like a complete idiot. |
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mindmetoo
Joined: 02 Feb 2004
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| Posted: Sat Oct 11, 2008 7:13 am Post subject: |
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| gangpae wrote: |
| ontheway wrote: |
Dow Jones Industrial Average(DJI: ^DJI)
Index Value: 8,167.49
Trade Time: 1:34PM ET
Change: 411.70 (4.80%)
Prev Close: 8,579.19
Open: 8,568.67
Day's Range: 7882.51 - 8687.11
52wk Range: 8,523.27 - 14,280.00
$3 trillion spent or promised by the Fed, so far, to reinflate the bubble. $830 billion bailout package. Over $1 trillion by other nations.
They cannot reinflate this bubble.
The Socialist Fiat money bubble is collapsing.
The Fed has failed. The government has failed. Socialism has failed.
Keynesian socialism lies dead and the stink is blowing around the globe. |
Congratulations! Your infinitesimally minute understanding of economics is just enough to make you sound like a complete idiot. |
As your infinitesimally minute understanding of virology makes you seem like a complete idiot. |
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