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Your own idiosyncratic US election predictions
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On the other hand



Joined: 19 Apr 2003
Location: I walk along the avenue

PostPosted: Tue Oct 14, 2008 10:25 am    Post subject: Your own idiosyncratic US election predictions Reply with quote

I think that Obama will win, but this supposed turning of the tide in red states(see the link below) will by and large not pan out. I'm usually not one to second-guess polling trends reported by credible outfits, but I just don't see as many Republicans as are being predicted going over to the Democrats. I wouldn't neccessarily say it'll be the "Bradley Effect" at play, just that when push comes to shove, a lot of conservatives, disgruntled with McCain though they may be, are gonna get cold feet about supporting someone like Obama when they step into the ballot booth.

Sarah Palin will not sink into obscurity following the election, but will instead have a more-or-less respectable side career in media and/or politics, over and above her governership of Alaska. The public will actually warm up to her, once the prospect of her holding actual power in Washington is no longer a threat on the horizon.

http://tinyurl.com/4po5k7
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Adventurer



Joined: 28 Jan 2006

PostPosted: Tue Oct 14, 2008 10:36 am    Post subject: Re: Your own idiosyncratic US election predictions Reply with quote

On the other hand wrote:
I think that Obama will win, but this supposed turning of the tide in red states(see the link below) will by and large not pan out. I'm usually not one to second-guess polling trends reported by credible outfits, but I just don't see as many Republicans as are being predicted going over to the Democrats. I wouldn't neccessarily say it'll be the "Bradley Effect" at play, just that when push comes to shove, a lot of conservatives, disgruntled with McCain though they may be, are gonna get cold feet about supporting someone like Obama when they step into the ballot booth.

Sarah Palin will not sink into obscurity following the election, but will instead have a more-or-less respectable side career in media and/or politics, over and above her governership of Alaska. The public will actually warm up to her, once the prospect of her holding actual power in Washington is no longer a threat on the horizon.

http://tinyurl.com/4po5k7


I would predicat that Obama would win. McCain will take most of the South and much of the West. However, Obama will take a few Southern states and a few states from the West, the entire West Coast, and much of the Northeast if not all of it. That's more than enough to win the popular vote and electoral college. I think Obama has a good chance of winning Ohio, and he may be able to secure North Carolina and Florida when it comes to the South. You don't so many people from the GOP to vote for Obama to make a huge difference in some states. A small shift in some states would make a world of difference. So even if some get cold feet, others won't get cold feet, and those who don't get cold feet will make a difference.
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mises



Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired

PostPosted: Tue Oct 14, 2008 10:44 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I believe McCain will win. I'm 70% on this and not being contrarian for the sake of being contrarian.

I think they could pull the anti-immigration card with 12 hours to go and win. Among others. And they'll prolly steal it, anyhow.
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On the other hand



Joined: 19 Apr 2003
Location: I walk along the avenue

PostPosted: Tue Oct 14, 2008 10:51 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
I think they could pull the anti-immigration card with 12 hours to go and win.


Do you mean anti-immigration in general, or is there some specific issue or angle you think they'd play?

Quote:
And they'll prolly steal it, anyhow.


Are you thinking Diebold here, or some sort of legal machinations?

I'm not someone who claims fraud every time my preferred candidate loses. But from what I've heard about electronic voting, there is no way in hell I would want that method in place anywhere I was a voter.
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mises



Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired

PostPosted: Tue Oct 14, 2008 10:56 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think McCain could say "forgot my last opinion. Elect me and the Mexicans go home" and he would win. If he actually enforced this, he would win again.

About stealing, I figure several million blacks and poor people will show up in important districts in Ohio, Penn, Florida etc and find themselves unable to vote. Like the last two elections that were jacked. If it ain't broke, don't fix it.

This blog follows the problems:

http://www.bradblog.com
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On the other hand



Joined: 19 Apr 2003
Location: I walk along the avenue

PostPosted: Tue Oct 14, 2008 11:02 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
I think McCain could say "forgot my last opinion. Elect me and the Mexicans go home" and he would win. If he actually enforced this, he would win again.


I think the idea that you could immediately expel all illegal Mexicans, without causing some major disruptions to many peoples' quality of life, is something that would seem plausible only to someone already commited to voting Republican.
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Adventurer



Joined: 28 Jan 2006

PostPosted: Tue Oct 14, 2008 11:32 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

One thing you all should remember that if Obama wins the states Kerry carried in 2004 and also takes Iowa as he is predicted to do and carries Ohio or Florida on top of that, then McCain is finished. The Jewish vote is beginning to swing toward Obama in Florida. That's not good for McCain. Bush barely won New Mexico, and it is doubtful McCain will be able to carry it when Bush barely did and the GOP is less popular. At the moment, Missouri is a toss up state. It was rather close in the last election. McCain is vulnerable in many areas, because the person who is handing him the baton, so to speak, is George Bush, and it's viewed as tainted by so many. He can't escape that fact anymore than Gore could escape Bill Clinton handed him a tainted baton. I am going with Obama, but McCain can turn things around, but he is fighting an uphill battle, and it is not his fault. He is a good candidate, but the timing is wrong for him.
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Kuros



Joined: 27 Apr 2004

PostPosted: Tue Oct 14, 2008 11:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The 2004 election was stolen? What a load of crap.
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Gopher



Joined: 04 Jun 2005

PostPosted: Tue Oct 14, 2008 11:44 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Why did the Republicans decline to or fail to steal in 2006?

I find the entire "stolen election" charge nonsense. Some people do not know how to lose.
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Ya-ta Boy



Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994

PostPosted: Tue Oct 14, 2008 1:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Barring a huge stumble on Obama's part, he's going to win. Probably win big. It looks to me like he'll be over 350 in the Electoral College. I suspect that he's going to have pretty long coattails, too. I think Republican turnout may be smaller than expected in many solid Obama states because people will say, "What's the use?" I say that because of a comment by Gov. Crist of Florida speaking of McCain when he cancelled a joint appearance at a McCain rally in favor of going to Disney World: "When I have time to help, I�ll try to do that."

Palin will return to obscurity. She hasn't shown that she has the stuff to remain on the national stage.
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Kuros



Joined: 27 Apr 2004

PostPosted: Tue Oct 14, 2008 2:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ya-ta Boy wrote:

Palin will return to obscurity. She hasn't shown that she has the stuff to remain on the national stage.


You've taken your wish and made it into prophecy. She has undeniable political skills which she uses to disguise her almost complete lack of understanding. Given time and study, she can become more knowledgable. We haven't seen the last of her.

Gopher wrote:
I find the entire "stolen election" charge nonsense. Some people do not know how to lose.


QFT.
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Gopher



Joined: 04 Jun 2005

PostPosted: Tue Oct 14, 2008 4:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Precisely. Also, I support McCain-Palin. But please do not confuse with with a McCain-Palin, and especially not with a Palin, partisan. There is a difference.

I sense what is coming from the far right, given B. Obama's, at this time, probable electoral victory. And I disagree with it just as strongly as I disagree with the far left's treatment of W. Bush these last eight years.
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Adventurer



Joined: 28 Jan 2006

PostPosted: Tue Oct 14, 2008 6:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Gopher wrote:
Precisely. Also, I support McCain-Palin. But please do not confuse with with a McCain-Palin, and especially not with a Palin, partisan. There is a difference.

.



Your writing is not clear, Gopher. I know what you mean, but it's not clear. Very Happy It almost sounds like something Bill Clinton would say: "It depends on what your definition of is is".
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Adventurer



Joined: 28 Jan 2006

PostPosted: Tue Oct 14, 2008 7:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

As far as stealing elections, we haven't had any proof of that. I used to think that was simply a conspiracy theory, but I have read many reports
of such fraud. Are the stories all simply untrue.

Is it true that thousands of democrats didn't have enough polling stations in Ohio? Is it true as the news reported that some Republican connected organization shredded thousands of ballots? If that occured, that's certainly fraud.

There were so many reports of fraud mostly emanating from the GOP. Now, the GOP isn't the first party to engage in massive voter fraud. LBJ engaged in it in the old days. It just seems quite possible that the GOP in 2004 made LBJ look like a cub scout. The polls showed that Kerry won the election, and the results were diametrically different from the polls by a significant margin, and there is no real rational reason for such a discrepancy. So, it is not simply a wild, conspiracy theory. Also, disproportionately it seems blacks were taking off the voting rolls.

vhttp://www.rollingstone.com/news/story/10432334/was_the_2004_election_stolen

http://whatreallyhappened.com/WRHARTICLES/2004votefraud_ohio.html?q=2004votefraud_ohio.html

Ohio's Secretary of State announced [on December 14, 2007] that a $1.9 million official study shows that "critical security failures" are embedded throughout the voting systems in the state that decided the 2004 election. Those failures, she says, "could impact the integrity of elections in the Buckeye State." They have rendered Ohio's vote counts "vulnerable" to manipulation and theft by "fairly simple techniques."
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Ya-ta Boy



Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994

PostPosted: Tue Oct 14, 2008 8:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
You've taken your wish and made it into prophecy. She has undeniable political skills


Possibly, but I don't think so because I don't see her political skills as undeniable. In fact, I do deny them. I think there are far more capable politicians on the right with views similar to hers. I was far more impressed with Huckabee than I have been with Palin. In a head-to-head battle between the two of them for the 2012 nomination, I think Huckabee would wipe the floor with her. He is just a far more well-spoken person than she is.

I will give you that her 'excitement quotient' is very high--that is undeniable. But I don't think that will last much longer than the campaign. It could be that I am discounting her gender more than I should. And maybe I'm underestimating her; maybe she can be brought along, given time.

It could be I'm being influenced too much by McCain's obvious discomfort with her. She has clearly not been brought on board for the campaign strategy sessions. My conclusion is that they have seen her up close and personal in ways we haven't and didn't like what they saw.
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