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The Korean chickens are coming home to roost
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mises



Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired

PostPosted: Wed Oct 15, 2008 9:05 pm    Post subject: The Korean chickens are coming home to roost Reply with quote

Obama said:
Quote:
That's why I've focused on putting resources into solar, wind, biodiesel, geothermal. These have been priorities of mine since I got to the Senate, and it is absolutely critical that we develop a high fuel efficient car that's built not in Japan and not in South Korea, but built here in the United States of America.

...

And when it comes to South Korea, we've got a trade agreement up right now, they are sending hundreds of thousands of South Korean cars into the United States. That's all good. We can only get 4,000 to 5,000 into South Korea. That is not free trade. We've got to have a president who is going to be advocating on behalf of American businesses and American workers and I make no apology for that.


Well, if you all are right and Obama wins, then Korea is in for a rough ride. They are already in the early stages of a home-grown credit crises (household debt is 120% of GDP, which the FT notes is enough to make Americans blush), the treatment of Lone Star caused massive capital flight, banks and chaebol are massively leveraged and the economy is stuck between an inflexible political economy that doesn't spur innovation/entrepreneurship and the massive competition from China for low to medium skilled manufacturing jobs.

Short South Korea. If "fair trade" between them and the US is established, or even a relatively small and sustained contraction in exports to the USA, they are in very, very serious trouble. Korea is not prepared, preparing or able to prepare for such a dramatic change in their economy.

http://www.rjkoehler.com/2008/10/16/thats-not-free-trade/
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Gopher



Joined: 04 Jun 2005

PostPosted: Wed Oct 15, 2008 9:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

His position is good here, as are several of his positions. But this is campaign talk, specifically intended to influence population groups X, Y, and Z's vote. Also, the Clinton Administration went into office highly, highly committed to its agenda -- "investing in the American people," "universal healthcare," "gays in the military," among other things. Clinton pledged to focus on domestic issues and leave foreign adventuring out of governance. Clinton's people, including his highly motivated wife, could not pass these initiatives, even over the military, for example, where the President, in theory, simply issues executive orders from the top down. And foreign affairs have a way of coming to the United States, whether it wants them or not.

In any case, B. Obama's supporters are setting themselves up for massive disappointment once he, probably at this point, wins the election, enters office, and starts governing (which means, alliance-building and compromising, all geared, primarily, toward winning that second term in 2012).

Taking these campaign pledges and neat-sounding debate positions at face-value is a bad idea.
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mises



Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired

PostPosted: Wed Oct 15, 2008 9:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

While I have no doubt that Obama, like all politicians says things to get elected while assuming that he will not be able to deliver, I do see the FTA with the ROK as dead, dead, dead. This is I think guaranteed.

Beyond this, there is the possibility that he could use various tariff and non-tariff measures to slow the import of Korean cars and other finished manufactured goods. I suspect a renegotiation of the FTA would be attempted, but I seriously doubt that the Korean people would agree, or allow their leaders to agree (without the emotive and festive tearing half of Seoul apart) to an Obama - Korea FTA.

After the "tank" nonsense, the beef nonsense, the FTA madness.. I don't think the Koreans deserve the good will of Americans.
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mises



Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired

PostPosted: Wed Oct 15, 2008 9:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I found this link in Marmot's comment section:
Quote:

China Slaps Import Ban on Hyundai, Kia

The Chinese government has stopped importing cars made by Hyundai Motor and Kia Motors alleging violations of monopoly and oligopoly laws.
According to the automobile industry on Wednesday, the Chinese government accepted a complaint by an association of the Chinese automobile dealers and stopped issuing import licenses for Hyundai and Kia cars. The Chinese dealers argued that the two carmakers forcefully allocated excessive quotas for dealers.

�Export has not been completely halted as we still have import licenses we got in August,� a Hyundai-Kia spokesman said. The decision only applies to cars manufactured in Korea and exported to China, not those made by local subsidiaries in China. From January to September this year, Hyundai produced 219,000 cars in its Chinese plant and Kia 105,000.

If the companies fail to win more import licenses, it will affect sales of luxury sedans, all of which are produced in Korea. Hyundai and Kia export about 1,500 and 800 cars per month, and losses would be about W50 billion (US$1=W1,240) a month.

�The move by the Chinese government comes under monopoly and oligopoly laws that began to be fully enforced from July this year,� an industry insider said. �The aim is to protect China�s own industry and to tame major foreign carmakers doing business in China.�

Hyundai Motor expects the ban to be lifted within one or two months since it will badly affect Chinese Hyundai and Kia dealers. In June, China banned imports of Toyota�s Lexus luxury line, but imports resumed within two months.

http://english.chosun.com/w21data/html/news/200810/200810160017.html
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Ya-ta Boy



Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994

PostPosted: Wed Oct 15, 2008 9:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

That chicken is not the only chicken Koreans have to think about today. China just banned the import of cars made in Korea. Here's a link: http://english.chosun.com/w21data/html/news/200810/200810160017.html

What with Wall Street doing gyrations and now this Chinese ban, the KOSPI is down to 1223.91 (2pm) and the Won has plummeted 80 today. Shocked Just a year ago, the market was a hair over 2,000. It's getting uncomfortably close to having lost 50%.
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Gopher



Joined: 04 Jun 2005

PostPosted: Wed Oct 15, 2008 9:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

mises wrote:
I don't think the Koreans deserve the good will of Americans.


I agree with this as do, I would suspect, privately at least, many in or near the center of policymaking. The thing is this: South Korea per se means nothing and no one cares much about it. South Korea as a longstanding cornerstone of American security and economic policy in East Asia and the Pacific is something else. We are entangled there. And we cannot simply disentangle ourselves overnight.

For what it is worth, though, as I said above, I agree with the position B. Obama articulates here.


Last edited by Gopher on Wed Oct 15, 2008 9:39 pm; edited 3 times in total
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mises



Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired

PostPosted: Wed Oct 15, 2008 9:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Check out the Shanghai market. Lost 65%+ since Nov 07.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=000001.SS&t=2y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=


I really don't know how Korea is going to cope. Their unions will rip up the cities if serious reforms are attempted. The country is a bit of an exporting one trick pony. And IF Obama did find a way to enforce fair'ish trade, you can stick a fork in Korea for at least a decade.
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mises



Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired

PostPosted: Wed Oct 15, 2008 9:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Gopher wrote:


I agree with this as do, I would suspect, privately at least, many in or near the center of policymaking.


I once asked an expert in ROK-USA economic relations at a seminar on this subject why the US didn't change her general economic position to the ROK. His answer was "inertia". Well, few things will inspire change like a major economic crises.
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mindmetoo



Joined: 02 Feb 2004

PostPosted: Thu Oct 16, 2008 2:50 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Koreans send USA cars. Americans send dollars. Koreans send those dollars back (along with 20 year olds) and employ people in the university system.

Where's the problem?

And I think anyone who teaches ESL should not complain about this so called trade deficit. Where you do think Koreans get the money to pay your salary?
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mises



Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired

PostPosted: Thu Oct 16, 2008 4:27 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The problem is that the United States has been using favorable trade relationships with states like Korea to keep them in the United States ideological or strategic camp. The idea was that they could be on Team America provided America kept her economy open and tolerated the Korean one being closed. This only benefits the United States from a very narrowly defined strategic perspective, and not a wider economic one.

Normally, I wouldn't care. But the Korean government and many people have behaved so goddamed terrible, like excitable and overly emotional children in regards to the hand that feeds them, that I welcome the "perfect race" having to face a world that doesn't give it prosperity on a platter.

In addition, the United States is no longer economically healthy enough that "cheap shit" can be the number one, and only one, economic benefit of trade. Kia, Hyundia and whoever else can go ahead and manufacture those cars that they want to sell in the US, in the US.

Quote:
Koreans send USA cars. Americans send dollars. Koreans send those dollars back (along with 20 year olds) and employ people in the university system.


Simplify much?

The current account deficit in the United States is horrible. I know you like to listen to mainstream podcasts about economics, so answer me this: When the Koreans run even a small current account deficit the won comes under serious stress. When the United States runs a massive one for years and years and years, the dollar doesn't weaken to the same degree. Can you tell me why? And as a bonus question, can you tell me when this will change, and what the consequences of this change will be? Double bonus, to what extent does mainstream trade theory have to change in light of this global economic catastrophe?

Standard economics contains a great deal of snake oil. Looking back at my three parchments, I'd estimate that 80% was dogma passing as science, 10% was useful explanations of how the world works and 10% was useful and employment related maths. Read Black Swans for reasons why.
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mindmetoo



Joined: 02 Feb 2004

PostPosted: Thu Oct 16, 2008 4:43 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

mises wrote:
In addition, the United States is no longer economically healthy enough that "cheap shit" can be the number one, and only one, economic benefit of trade. Kia, Hyundia and whoever else can go ahead and manufacture those cars that they want to sell in the US, in the US.


Last time I checked, Korea was making some of the cheapest cars with the best quality, best gas, and best warranties. If Americans can cut down on gas imports and have extra money in their pockets (saving $2000 on a car, saving on gas) that is healthy for America. How isn't it?
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mises



Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired

PostPosted: Thu Oct 16, 2008 4:45 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

It isn't because it is another multi billion dollar addition to various American deficits.
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Neil



Joined: 02 Jan 2004
Location: Tokyo

PostPosted: Thu Oct 16, 2008 5:11 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Not being up to speed on US politics/demographics ect as most I must ask as there's a big online presence of gyopos who bang on about the wonders of Korea despite having never having visited the place, why isn't there a Korean-American voting bloc which can organise itself as the Cuban-Americans in Florida have done?

Surely VANK (whose members I think must be mainly US based) would devote their time to going on about this rather than East Sea/Sea of Japan rubbish...

Maybe it's because of
Quote:
and it is absolutely critical that we develop a high fuel efficient car that's built not in Japan and not in South Korea, but built here in the United States of America.
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Paji eh Wong



Joined: 03 Jun 2003

PostPosted: Thu Oct 16, 2008 5:39 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Read Black Swans for reasons why.


Great book.

What are your three degrees in? All econ?
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mises



Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired

PostPosted: Thu Oct 16, 2008 6:56 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
What are your three degrees in? All econ?


More or less. I have a grad dip that I did to earn the quantitative pre-recs for a masters. Modern economics is really a great deal of snake oil hidden behind a wall of applied maths. And the math is generally useless as well, unless you are writing for journals. Taleb takes the whole profession, in her modern incarnation, down several notches.

Here is a video of him ranting about it:

http://kr.youtube.com/watch?v=ABXPICWjFIo&eurl


Quote:
Not being up to speed on US politics/demographics ect as most I must ask as there's a big online presence of gyopos who bang on about the wonders of Korea despite having never having visited the place, why isn't there a Korean-American voting bloc which can organise itself as the Cuban-Americans in Florida have done?


That's a good question. The Manhattan Institute released a comprehensive survey of ethnicity and assimilation into American society a few months back. Koreans were (if memory serves) behind only Canadians in their levels of assimilation, and this might have something to do with their indifference to the issue. The rather aggressive LA Koreans aside, I've found them to be among the most reasonable people around.
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