Korean Job Discussion Forums

Hyeon Een · Joined: 24 Jun 2005

Where will the stockmarket be in 3 months time (Educated guesses are as welcome as are those divined by witchcraft, tealeaves, dogs entrails, or Mu-dang rituals). If you make comments please mention on what you are basing it on =)

I think there are so many exciting factors at the moment what with elections, government interventions, other-countries' actions, weather... and so on that it is kind of a massive gamble to guess on the stockmarket soooo far into the future.

As a base, we will take the Dow Jones to be at about 8,400.

My guess is that it will be at precisely 9,120. You can hold me to that.

mises · Joined: 05 Nov 2007 Location: retired

Hmmm. 3 months, I suspect a recession will be finally be accepted and the xmas shopping season will have shown just how dead the consumer is.

6790.

bucheon bum · Joined: 16 Jan 2003

I do think future earnings reports will drive the dow lower than it currently is, but won't be below 7,000 in 3 months time. Let's say 7,500.

RJjr · Joined: 17 Aug 2006 Location: Turning on a Lamp

I've got dibs on 4869.

The 69 part is because that's my lucky number.

The 48 part is because of several reasons:

- Momentum.

- More and more people are having to cash out their 401ks to pay the mortgage, pay for gas, etc.

- Obama will win the election and a lot of people will cash out their stocks to avoid paying a higher capital gains tax.

- I believe there are stores that are ready to fold, but will wait until after Christmas as their last hurrah. They'll go out with a fizzle instead of a bang.

- Holiday sales will be worse than expected.

Hyeon Een · Joined: 24 Jun 2005

mises · Joined: 05 Nov 2007 Location: retired

My personal, not quantitatively researched opinion, is that some of the dow's strength is a reflection of nationalistic bravado as expressed by traders and over confidence by domestic and international investors.

We've all heard of the so-called "Korea discount" whereby Korean firms are undervalued when compared to similar Japanese or Taiwanese firms and I believe there is a similar "American premium" that is dissipating.

RJjr · Joined: 17 Aug 2006 Location: Turning on a Lamp

Furthermore, things sometimes get priced into the stock market before they actually come to fruition. Even though commercial real estate is already looking bleak, the weak 2008 holiday sales will usher in the commercial real estate crash in earnest. I wouldn't be surprised to see some companies (Simon Property comes to mind) lose a large percentage of their stock value before the vacancies actually happen. I would so hate to own that stock right now.

Ya-ta Boy · Joined: 16 Jan 2003 Location: Established in 1994

Three months from now (roughly) will be Inauguration Day in the US. Until then I think the numbers will continue generally down. I don't have a specific number in mind--just one lower than today. I do think there will be a psychological boost around Inauguration Day and some improvement--a new beginning and all that--until the next backruptcy happens.

Once the mechanics of the mess are fixed there will still be the problem of confidence.

Kuros · Joined: 27 Apr 2004

I'm going to guess above 10,000. Because we could all use a little reckless optimism right about now.

mises · Joined: 05 Nov 2007 Location: retired

Well, I made my final purchases of McCain yesterday and I feel very comfortable with them. You can be the optimist, and I'm the pessimist.

Ya-ta Boy · Joined: 16 Jan 2003 Location: Established in 1994

mises · Joined: 05 Nov 2007 Location: retired

No, I 'bet' on the election with a prediction market.

Ya-ta Boy · Joined: 16 Jan 2003 Location: Established in 1994

bucheon bum · Joined: 16 Jan 2003

he did indeed do just that.

Ya-ta Boy · Joined: 16 Jan 2003 Location: Established in 1994

mises,

If bb is right and you are actually, truely spending coin on betting on McCain winning....please listen to my next offer. I'm serious. I know we've had our 'differences' when you were in another incarnation, but I have a deal for you Exclamation

If you really, really believe McCain can win--the John McCain who is running for president of the United States, not some other John McCain. The John McCain whose poll numbers could not go down faster if he had 20 pounds of bacon strapped to his naked ass sliding down an ice covered hill...

You name the odds you want...any odds....1000 to 1??? Whatever you say...I'll send you my account number and you can send me whatever amount you have bet on McCain and I will give you those odds. I'll sign over my car, my bank account....everything. Even my collection of books on Ancient Greece. I'll include my T.R. Pearson novels. All of them. Emile Zola? You can have the complete pile. I'll even throw in my recipe for Chicken Pot Pie.

You name it.

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