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pkang0202
Joined: 09 Mar 2007
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 Posted: Thu Oct 16, 2008 9:46 pm Post subject: |
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http://uwnews.org/article.asp?articleid=27554
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PHILADELPHIA -- If you think the world is on the verge of running out of oil or other mineral resources, you've been taken in by the foremost of seven myths about resource geology, according to a University of Washington economic geologist.
"The most common question I get is, 'When are we going to run out of oil.' The correct response is, 'Never,'" said Eric Cheney. "It might be a heck of a lot more expensive than it is now, but there will always be some oil available at a price, perhaps $10 to $100 a gallon."
Changing economics, technological advances and efforts such as recycling and substitution make the world's mineral resources virtually infinite, said Cheney, a UW professor emeritus of Earth and space sciences. For instance, oil deposits unreachable 40 years ago can be tapped today using improved technology, and oil once too costly to extract from tar sands, organic matter or coal is now worth manufacturing. Though some resources might be costlier now, they still are needed.
"Mineral resources are vitally important to our industrial and service economy," he said.
Cheney will discuss myths about mineral resources Sunday during a talk at the Geological Society of America annual meeting, a presentation prepared in collaboration with Andrew Buddington of Spokane Community College.
It might seem that oil supplies are running low in a time when gasoline has reached $3 a gallon. But Cheney -- who has been on the UW faculty since 1964 and has consulted extensively for government and industry -- notes that gas prices today, adjusted for inflation, are about what they were in the early 20th century. Today's prices seem inordinately high, he said, because crude oil was at an extremely low price, $10 a barrel, just eight years ago and now fetches around $58 a barrel and has been as high as $78.
As major economies, such as those in China and India, develop and are on the verge of greater demand for mineral resources, he said, it is an opportune time for universities to train a new crop of resource geologists who can understand the challenges and help find solutions. He believes that popular but misguided notions about mineral resources might be hampering students from entering the field.
Other myths that he wants to dispel include:
* Only basic extraction and processing costs affect economic geology. That fails to account for such costs as exploration, transportation, taxes and societal and environmental programs.
* Production always damages the environment. Accidents do happen, Cheney said, but much of the perception is based on problems of the past and don't reflect current reality. "It's inevitable that there are going to be oil spills, just like there are traffic accidents on the freeway," he said. "We hope we can manage them, but nothing is risk free."
* Mineral deposits are excessively profitable. Despite widely reported huge oil company profits in the last year, Cheney notes that as a percentage of company revenues oil profits lag far behind those of some major software and banking companies.
* Transportation costs are trivial. In fact, the retail cost of building materials such as sand and gravel are largely driven by the cost of moving them from one place to another, particularly in crowded urban areas. Moving quarries and pits farther away from where people live only increases those costs.
* Ore deposits are uniform. While a valued ore can be found in a large continuous deposit, often it is mixed with other kinds of minerals and extraction becomes more expensive.
* Resources are randomly distributed and so, if human population encroaches, a mine or quarry should simply be able to relocate.
Cheney does not discount serious issues involved with the use of natural resources. For instance, continuing to burn fossil fuels will pump more carbon dioxide into Earth's atmosphere, adding to the already worsening greenhouse conditions. Those fuels still will be available to those who can afford the price. "We're still going to have to use fuels, but we have to manage that use better."
"The point is that we have to have members of the public who are not geologists and who know something about mineral resources. There are going to be some important policy decisions in the next decades, so we need to have some smart voters," he said. "We can start in colleges by dispelling myths in courses for students who are not going to become professional geoscientists." |
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bangbayed
Joined: 01 Dec 2005
Location: Seoul
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| Posted: Thu Oct 16, 2008 10:03 pm Post subject: |
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| Guess it's not really Obama who's talking out of his arse. |
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Jandar
Joined: 11 Jun 2008
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Poemer
Joined: 20 Sep 2005
Location: Mullae
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| Posted: Thu Oct 16, 2008 10:58 pm Post subject: |
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Actually, wind energy alone could power the country by taking advantage of weather conditions in a few western/midwestern states. The problem is distribution of this energy, we don't have the necessary energy transmission infrastructure. I don't think this is a valid argument against wind though. ALL of America's infrastructure is aged and ailing, and needs to be invested in. Might as well start with the grid, which needs to be fixed regardless, as rolling blackouts in California and the eastern seaboard etc, etc. have proven.
A combination of the methods Obama mentioned could get the job done, anything is better than more of what we currently have. |
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BS.Dos.
Joined: 29 Mar 2007
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| Posted: Thu Oct 16, 2008 11:40 pm Post subject: |
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| Obama constantly talks out of his arse! |
Yeah, but his farts smell nice. |
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RJjr
Joined: 17 Aug 2006
Location: Turning on a Lamp
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| Posted: Fri Oct 17, 2008 12:12 am Post subject: |
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I've recently read about the University of Tennessee and also the Oak Ridge National Laboratory turning switchgrass into ethanol. I'm going to call them both and see what's up.
No matter what they say, I'm thinking about putting out at least 100 acres of switchgrass to start off with and calling them both up each year and offer to donate it to them. If they don't want it (which is what I'm expecting to happen, actually), I'll just bale it up anyway and sell it to cattlefarmers. |
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The Bobster
Joined: 15 Jan 2003
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| Posted: Fri Oct 17, 2008 1:08 am Post subject: |
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| Kuros wrote: |
| The Bobster wrote: |
| As the price of oil climbs higher, ANY alternative becomes more practical. |
뭐라고? |
The trend is for oil prices to go higher, and continue to do so. When I sold my last car in California 15 years ago the price at the pumps was $1.50 a gal, and people complained about it. A dozen or so years later, that's just a fond memory.
I guess I was in high school when the Alaskan wilderness became a govt-protected preserve after oil was discovered there. We were told the tundra would be safe from exploitation at least during our lifetimes, but it wasn't so, and now it's become a campaign issue.
Steadily rising prices for petroleum are perfectly logical. They don't make it anymore, but we do continue to make people, and when there are enough people who want it, the price goes up. That's just natural. |
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Nowhere Man
Joined: 08 Feb 2004
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| Posted: Fri Oct 17, 2008 3:05 am Post subject: ... |
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| Omar, the gay, black drugdealer |
Omar is more about jackin' other dealers than pushing the product. Let's not engage in character assassination. Literally, even. |
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mithridates
Joined: 03 Mar 2003
Location: President's office, Korean Space Agency
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| Posted: Fri Oct 17, 2008 3:58 am Post subject: Re: Obama constantly talks out of his arse! |
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| mises wrote: |
| Hale, Obama is also not religious. He talks a good game but his doubt oozes out of his book Dreams. He has to pretend to be religious, and it was necessary for him to find success in Chicago politics. But he is not a religious man. |
I think it's somewhere between that. He's obviously religious and would be if he were not a politician, but he also knows what to say and what not to say, which means a little bit more lip service to modern concepts like "being saved" and no public musing about deeper questions that would make him appear heretical. I don't think the argument could be made that he's not religious at all because he's simply not the type to pretend to be a completely different person in order to get ahead (if he was that kind of person he probably would have pretended to be Republican as well). My guess is that inside he's probably a lot like Anthony de Mello, officially a member of his sect but with a lot of room for what are considered to be unorthodox views at present. |
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Tiger Beer
Joined: 07 Feb 2003
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| Posted: Fri Oct 17, 2008 6:26 am Post subject: |
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I think I would disagree about him NOT being a religious man. He might not be a fundamentalist nutjob, but he certainly proclaims to have faith in God.
If someone was to compare him to McCain, then Obama would certainly be the significantly more MORAL and UPRIGHT of the two men with stronger integrity. |
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