Korean Job Discussion Forums

[KOREAN_MAN]

Will it help South Korea as much as it will help the North economically? I think the answer is yes. Once a country grows, it tries to expand the territory by the means of colonization, expansion, or simply war. With reunification, the two Koreas can grow into a stronger force without paying much.

If the two Koreas are reunited, in a peaceful manner of course, then Hyundai would make tons of money by building new roads and buildings in North Korea. Samsung also would find a way to make a profit. Eventually small businesses will follow. Reunification would also bring Korea and China closer, which probably is a good thing in the 21st century.

But the thing is a lot of Koreans are opposing reunification today because it might distrupt the economy of South Korea. Maybe they're right and I'm wrong. But shouldn't we be more concerned about North Koreans who are in a far, far worse situation? What does the South have to lose?

[kprrok]

Short term, not good for ROK, long term, probably good.

[sojourner1]

yep, the South would be concerned it would cost them money and lower their standard of living to raise the North's boats as to bring them up in the world. The North is still primitive old Korea as it was back in 1950 something and it's very poor and will require a complete upgrade of everything to bring it up.

I remember back in the mid 90's how the Germans complained about the costs of bringing East Germany up to standards. Blue collar workers such as drivers just complained and that's all they talked about for many years, because it cost them some of what their wages could had been and amount of career opportunity. Working class average West Germans suffered due to money and opportunity pouring out to build and develop East Germany.

South Korea doesn't want the cost and complexities involved while the North Korean government wants to remain a weird f'd up oppressive communist regime with 1940's technology and ideas. They can only continue doing this, because they are the most isolated tucked away little nation on Earth no one cares about or wants anything with since they can't really do anything. If they shoot a nuke out, then the world is coming to rip them a new arsehole and force democracy. When they screw up by attacking someone, the old communist gig's up. They don't attack anyone since they know they are a small behind the times kind of country so all they can do is oppress their people. They're sick...

Are the 2 Koreas becoming 1 in our lifetime? Probably not. Very wishful dreaming though. This one I thought about too.

[Privateer]

The exploitation of and discrimination against North Koreans would be sickening.

[jvalmer]

I once read, somewhere, that some bigwig Korean CEO said that he'd rather have factories set up in North Korea, than in China or Vietnam or wherever. It would be closer to home and he'd be keeping money in the hands of Koreans.

Anyways, if unification did occur and the South is still 50x richer, I think they would need to setup a China-like Special Admin' Region for the North. Where it restricts travel for the average Northerner out of the North. Otherwise, expect Seoul's population to increase by a few million overnight and a lot of shantytowns surrounding the city. Hopefully, the government has a few smart guys that are thinking of things like this.

[yeongil]

Do I want to see North & South Korea reunified? Of course! Is it going to happen in my lifetime? Probably not.

I think that this article, though written over 2 years ago, explains really well the positions of the six-parties (North & South Korea, China, Japan, USA, and Russia) regarding reunification.

Another thing to comment is this: how difficult will be for people on both sides to talk to each other in the Korean language? There is more and more differences in vocabulary and spelling between the two.


01

[Jeff's Cigarettes]

North Korean Diplomats Told to Wait for Major Announcement: Yomiuri
October 18, 2008 � 5:18 pm

Yonhap, quoting the Japanese press, reports that Pyongyang has told its overseas diplomats to wait for a �important announcement.�

This announcement is presumed to be about North Korean leader Kim Jong-il�s health.

The Yomiuri Shimbun, citing an anonymous source familiar with the North Korea issue, reported that the North Korean authorities have asked its diplomats not to travel and stay in one place.

The source also said North Korea would make a major announcement within the next couple of days, presumably about Kim�s health and intra-Korean relations.

About the report, a spokesman from South Korea�s National Intelligence Service said they�d heard the news, and were now trying to confirm it.

[Troll_Bait]

[cdninkorea]

As sojourner1 said in his/her post, we only need to look at Germany as an analogy for what would happen if the border was opened completely overnight. The difference is that it would be even more dramatic: North Korea's economy is a scant 3 percent of the South's. Can you imagine all the problems?

I definitely want the North Korean regime to collapse, but it has to be done carefully.

[pkang0202]

It would cripple South Korea.

The entire North Korean population is brainwashed. The biggest hurdle would be "reprogramming" 3 generation of North Koreans. Forget the economy.

[nakamurahikaru]

If John McCain is elected president, there is a good chance he will not invade North Korea provided North Korea and South Korea reunite.

[justaguy]

Millions of North Koreans will move south. They will go where the money is. Good news is there are many empty apartments to put them in. Korea's housing crisis will suddenly vanish.

Koreans are good at building things. They will want to rebuild the North.

[Unposter]

If there was a peaceful reconcilliation, tons and I mean tons of international aid will pour in. I think Korean companies will be in a good position to take advantage of the money. There may be some conditions placed on the money but my guess is the Korean government will smile, say thank you and do what they want. Ban Gimoon being U.N. Secretary General will only help the situation.

But, yes, it will be a huge problem socializing North Koreans to South Korean culture and there could be a lot of economic exploitation of Noth Koreans.

But, considering that there are probably more labor laws in South Korea than in North Korea, South Korea would probably economically benefit more from Gaesong than by re-unification.

I also think that it will hurt Korean-Chinese relations as Korea will be percieved as a bigger threat to China than before. Korea's best chance for independence between China, Russia and Japan are allies outside of the region.

Short term lots of problems - long term? No one knows the long term. South Korea has enough weaknesses in their economy and international relations now. Adding the baggage of North Korea, well...

At least the threat of war and nuclear war would subside which is a big cloud hanging over Korea now, probably stunting economic growth.

I would think re-unification would be really good for Tourism though. It would put Korea on the lips of the people of the world.

[Suwon23]

The South currently spends about 22 billion dollars on defense each year (which is actually more than what the North pays, in absolute terms). That's a little less than 2% of GDP. I thought it would be higher, given the fact that the army has 600,000 active duty troops! But I guess they save a lot of money letting the US do their research and development for them. Anyway, they could save a lot fo that money if they didn't have to worry about defending the DMZ. Say they reduced their military budget by 50%, then put the 11 billion dollar savings into rebuilding North Korea. That would basically increase the North's GDP by 25%, which is in addition to the 2-3 billion the North could save by halving its own military expenses. You would have to put a quota on the number of people who could leave each year, but emergency food supplies, medicine, and other essentials could be shipped in cheaply. The economy of North Korea would reach livable levels in just a few years, because most of the hardship there is caused by
a) collective farming on small amounts of arable land, which would evaporate as a problem overnight. The collective farms would be redistributed on a commercial basis, capital would be pumped in, and the system would become workable. Then you would have to decide whether you want to move the agricultural production south, ship subsidized food north, and thus eliminate the whole problem of unproductive agriculture in the North, or keep the farmers in place because absorbing them in other work would prove too difficult.
b) a lack of capital. This, too, would disappear overnight. Once the dead hand of central control is lifted, North Korea's productivity would sky-rocket (it would asymptotically approach but not reach South Korea's level). Therefore, every South Korean with two Won to rub together would invest in roads, tractors, rolling stock, and other industrial goods in the North. The profits would be enormous. This kind of "nowhere to go but up" growth is what caused the meteoric rise of the Soviet Union in the thirties, and the equally impressive rise of China in the nineties, and the gradual slow-down of both growth curves.

The real problem, as PKang0202 pointed out, is not economic, but political. North Koreans make up 1/3 of all Koreans. Many, if not most, of them believe America and the West are to blame for both their economic difficulties, and the division of their country. If they become full, voting, citizens, American interests in Korea are screwed. Of course, we wont need a military presence once North Korea is gone, but still it's a scary thought.

In the short term, what we need is not re-unification, but a Northern government which will scale back central planning, use aid from the South responsibly to invest in infrastructure, allow foreign companies to invest in the North for profit, scale back military spending (currently 13% of GDP), and stop brainwashing people into thinking there's still a war going on. Unfortunately, the Northern government cannot exist without war paranoia. Without it, their power will evaporate. They don't want unification, and they don't want to lose their power.

I opposed the Iraq war, and I still do. But sometimes there's only one way. This may be one of those cases.

[bassexpander]