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The won is plummeting today
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Join Me



Joined: 14 Jan 2008

PostPosted: Fri Oct 17, 2008 7:22 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Lately the won has been bouncing back and fourth as much as 10%. Right now it is at 1340 something. Some news out of the US or some intervention on the part of the Korean government will push it back to 1200 again. A week or two later it will be back at 1400. It is going to be like this until the US market stabilizes.

I would wait a bit longer to send any dollars to Korea. The won is going to hit 1400 and probably above that in the next week or so. The Korean government is getting desperate to change this and is going to make their move in the next month I would bet. When this happens, the won should head back in the direction of 1,000 (probably wont hit it...but will take a big bounce). If you are a gambler, I would wait for this bounce.
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monger



Joined: 09 Oct 2008

PostPosted: Fri Oct 17, 2008 9:23 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

What do you guys think will happen on Tues when they auction off some $$ to the banks?
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bassexpander



Joined: 13 Sep 2007
Location: Someplace you'd rather be.

PostPosted: Fri Oct 17, 2008 5:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Monger, I think it'll be a see-saw through most of the rest of the year. Play it right, and you can make some money off of it.

This, by the way, REALLY pisses the banks and the Korean gov't off. I am enjoying it a lot. Laughing

If you have dollars back home, and want to make some money, buy won when it goes above 1400. Send a couple thousand here. In 5 or 6 months to a year (assuming you're staying here that long) you can sell it back and make a profit off of it.
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monger



Joined: 09 Oct 2008

PostPosted: Fri Oct 17, 2008 9:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yh, I'm here for at least a couple of years. Btw, I'm British Smile

It's a risk whenever you change currency. I'm not sure whether it will go above 1400 as it's peak has been in the mid 1300's. If Japan does go into a recession, then it certainly will as we saw what happened with their 10% drop the other day.

I feel like we are a group of economists discussing this! Smile
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marlow



Joined: 06 Feb 2005

PostPosted: Fri Oct 17, 2008 10:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well, they are going to announce a relief package tomorrow. I have my sending of a lump of money tied to it hitting 1000 won to a CAD. I wonder if I'll be able to do that next week, or will I have to take the pain month by month as I send money home.
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The_Source



Joined: 09 Oct 2008

PostPosted: Sat Oct 18, 2008 12:10 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

bassexpander wrote:
Monger, I think it'll be a see-saw through most of the rest of the year. Play it right, and you can make some money off of it.

This, by the way, REALLY pisses the banks and the Korean gov't off.


It's their own fault. If Korea could straighten out the problems with their economy, they wouldn't have to deal with people making money from their exchange rate fluctuations. They deserve what's coming to them.
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hari seldon



Joined: 05 Dec 2004
Location: Incheon

PostPosted: Sat Oct 18, 2008 2:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm surprised people earning teachers salaries would engage in currency speculation. I guess this is money they can afford to lose.

From my vantage point, the only conservative choices available are negotiating a higher salary or switching to a job that doesn't pay won. For example, I recently negotiated a new contract and rest assured the issue of the tanking won was front and center.
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monger



Joined: 09 Oct 2008

PostPosted: Sun Oct 19, 2008 9:21 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

might get stronger from tomorrow as government has announced to guarantee $100bn of loans
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Tommy



Joined: 24 Aug 2005

PostPosted: Sun Oct 19, 2008 10:18 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Fingers crossed for Monday morning... also looking for that 1:1 ratio Wink
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marlow



Joined: 06 Feb 2005

PostPosted: Sun Oct 19, 2008 4:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Tommy wrote:
Fingers crossed for Monday morning... also looking for that 1:1 ratio Wink


For me I've justified 1:1 as the no guilt, non-greed formula. I could pray for a sub 1000 recovery, but it'd be pushing my luck. I've got a sizable chunk to send home, and sending it at 1000 would be decent. Not perfect, but decent. If it falls farther, it just means I lose the interest savings I would have gotten by paying off the loans sooner rather than later.
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DCJames



Joined: 27 Jul 2006

PostPosted: Sun Oct 19, 2008 4:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

bassexpander wrote:
Play it right, and you can make some money off of it.



or you could play it wrong and lose even more. Laughing


http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/19/AR2008101900656.html?hpid=topnews
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Tobias



Joined: 02 Jun 2008

PostPosted: Sun Oct 19, 2008 5:01 pm    Post subject: That's partly true Reply with quote

DCJames wrote:
....
Korea is a major exporter to the US with transactions done in US dollars and the Korean dependence on the dollar will never change.
....


That's one part of it, sure.

But the fact the US has the military power to erase anyone from the face of the earth if US elites feel it necessary has a whole lot to do with it. Well, I should say the majority PERCEPTION is the US has that power. Today's global financial world spins on the axis of perceptions. "You believe it, so that makes it true." Or at least you don't disbelieve it. That's also 'good enough to keep it spinning 'round and 'round.'

Look for the US dollar to greatly increase in value over the next year.
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Big Pun Lives



Joined: 12 Oct 2008
Location: Seoul, South Korea

PostPosted: Sun Oct 19, 2008 6:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well, this move buys the Won a little time...but there are some problems still outstanding. The short term debt is going to come due soon, hopefully the credit markets will have started sloshing around all that bailout money when they come due.
It seems that they shot their one bullet, the government pretty much used its reserves to pull this move off, so if things take a turn for the worse....the government can't do a thing about it. Let's hope it works out for the best.
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JFuller317



Joined: 10 Oct 2008

PostPosted: Sun Oct 19, 2008 7:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Monday didn't seem to make a whole lot of difference.

XE is showing me a rate of 1301 won to the dollar at this point. Certainly not the sub-1200 rate I was hoping for.

I'm thinking that my strategy will be to just save up all my won for several months, checking the exchange rate every day, and if there comes a time when it starts to get better, I'll just send it over all in one shot.
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marlow



Joined: 06 Feb 2005

PostPosted: Sun Oct 19, 2008 8:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The package definitely didn't do anything for the won, unless the currency trading crowd is a real afternoon group.

We'll see what the week does.
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