View previous topic :: View next topic |
Author |
Message |
Join Me

Joined: 14 Jan 2008
|
Posted: Fri Oct 17, 2008 7:22 am Post subject: |
|
|
Lately the won has been bouncing back and fourth as much as 10%. Right now it is at 1340 something. Some news out of the US or some intervention on the part of the Korean government will push it back to 1200 again. A week or two later it will be back at 1400. It is going to be like this until the US market stabilizes.
I would wait a bit longer to send any dollars to Korea. The won is going to hit 1400 and probably above that in the next week or so. The Korean government is getting desperate to change this and is going to make their move in the next month I would bet. When this happens, the won should head back in the direction of 1,000 (probably wont hit it...but will take a big bounce). If you are a gambler, I would wait for this bounce. |
|
Back to top |
|
 |
monger
Joined: 09 Oct 2008
|
Posted: Fri Oct 17, 2008 9:23 am Post subject: |
|
|
What do you guys think will happen on Tues when they auction off some $$ to the banks? |
|
Back to top |
|
 |
bassexpander
Joined: 13 Sep 2007 Location: Someplace you'd rather be.
|
Posted: Fri Oct 17, 2008 5:15 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Monger, I think it'll be a see-saw through most of the rest of the year. Play it right, and you can make some money off of it.
This, by the way, REALLY pisses the banks and the Korean gov't off. I am enjoying it a lot.
If you have dollars back home, and want to make some money, buy won when it goes above 1400. Send a couple thousand here. In 5 or 6 months to a year (assuming you're staying here that long) you can sell it back and make a profit off of it. |
|
Back to top |
|
 |
monger
Joined: 09 Oct 2008
|
Posted: Fri Oct 17, 2008 9:05 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Yh, I'm here for at least a couple of years. Btw, I'm British
It's a risk whenever you change currency. I'm not sure whether it will go above 1400 as it's peak has been in the mid 1300's. If Japan does go into a recession, then it certainly will as we saw what happened with their 10% drop the other day.
I feel like we are a group of economists discussing this!  |
|
Back to top |
|
 |
marlow
Joined: 06 Feb 2005
|
Posted: Fri Oct 17, 2008 10:47 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Well, they are going to announce a relief package tomorrow. I have my sending of a lump of money tied to it hitting 1000 won to a CAD. I wonder if I'll be able to do that next week, or will I have to take the pain month by month as I send money home. |
|
Back to top |
|
 |
The_Source

Joined: 09 Oct 2008
|
Posted: Sat Oct 18, 2008 12:10 am Post subject: |
|
|
bassexpander wrote: |
Monger, I think it'll be a see-saw through most of the rest of the year. Play it right, and you can make some money off of it.
This, by the way, REALLY pisses the banks and the Korean gov't off.
|
It's their own fault. If Korea could straighten out the problems with their economy, they wouldn't have to deal with people making money from their exchange rate fluctuations. They deserve what's coming to them. |
|
Back to top |
|
 |
hari seldon
Joined: 05 Dec 2004 Location: Incheon
|
Posted: Sat Oct 18, 2008 2:57 pm Post subject: |
|
|
I'm surprised people earning teachers salaries would engage in currency speculation. I guess this is money they can afford to lose.
From my vantage point, the only conservative choices available are negotiating a higher salary or switching to a job that doesn't pay won. For example, I recently negotiated a new contract and rest assured the issue of the tanking won was front and center. |
|
Back to top |
|
 |
monger
Joined: 09 Oct 2008
|
Posted: Sun Oct 19, 2008 9:21 am Post subject: |
|
|
might get stronger from tomorrow as government has announced to guarantee $100bn of loans |
|
Back to top |
|
 |
Tommy

Joined: 24 Aug 2005
|
Posted: Sun Oct 19, 2008 10:18 am Post subject: |
|
|
Fingers crossed for Monday morning... also looking for that 1:1 ratio  |
|
Back to top |
|
 |
marlow
Joined: 06 Feb 2005
|
Posted: Sun Oct 19, 2008 4:16 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Tommy wrote: |
Fingers crossed for Monday morning... also looking for that 1:1 ratio  |
For me I've justified 1:1 as the no guilt, non-greed formula. I could pray for a sub 1000 recovery, but it'd be pushing my luck. I've got a sizable chunk to send home, and sending it at 1000 would be decent. Not perfect, but decent. If it falls farther, it just means I lose the interest savings I would have gotten by paying off the loans sooner rather than later. |
|
Back to top |
|
 |
DCJames

Joined: 27 Jul 2006
|
|
Back to top |
|
 |
Tobias

Joined: 02 Jun 2008
|
Posted: Sun Oct 19, 2008 5:01 pm Post subject: That's partly true |
|
|
DCJames wrote: |
....
Korea is a major exporter to the US with transactions done in US dollars and the Korean dependence on the dollar will never change.
.... |
That's one part of it, sure.
But the fact the US has the military power to erase anyone from the face of the earth if US elites feel it necessary has a whole lot to do with it. Well, I should say the majority PERCEPTION is the US has that power. Today's global financial world spins on the axis of perceptions. "You believe it, so that makes it true." Or at least you don't disbelieve it. That's also 'good enough to keep it spinning 'round and 'round.'
Look for the US dollar to greatly increase in value over the next year. |
|
Back to top |
|
 |
Big Pun Lives
Joined: 12 Oct 2008 Location: Seoul, South Korea
|
Posted: Sun Oct 19, 2008 6:46 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Well, this move buys the Won a little time...but there are some problems still outstanding. The short term debt is going to come due soon, hopefully the credit markets will have started sloshing around all that bailout money when they come due.
It seems that they shot their one bullet, the government pretty much used its reserves to pull this move off, so if things take a turn for the worse....the government can't do a thing about it. Let's hope it works out for the best. |
|
Back to top |
|
 |
JFuller317
Joined: 10 Oct 2008
|
Posted: Sun Oct 19, 2008 7:51 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Monday didn't seem to make a whole lot of difference.
XE is showing me a rate of 1301 won to the dollar at this point. Certainly not the sub-1200 rate I was hoping for.
I'm thinking that my strategy will be to just save up all my won for several months, checking the exchange rate every day, and if there comes a time when it starts to get better, I'll just send it over all in one shot. |
|
Back to top |
|
 |
marlow
Joined: 06 Feb 2005
|
Posted: Sun Oct 19, 2008 8:41 pm Post subject: |
|
|
The package definitely didn't do anything for the won, unless the currency trading crowd is a real afternoon group.
We'll see what the week does. |
|
Back to top |
|
 |
|