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tombirner
Joined: 19 Dec 2007
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 Posted: Wed Oct 22, 2008 9:26 pm Post subject: So should I transfer my WON into dollars or what??? |
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I don't really understand much about money and the economy and stuff...
My contract is up in a week. Should I transfer the savings in my Korean bank account to dollars?? Or should I wait? Think the WON will go back up?
Moron-friendly responses are appreciated. |
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bassexpander
Joined: 13 Sep 2007
Location: Someplace you'd rather be.
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| Posted: Wed Oct 22, 2008 9:32 pm Post subject: |
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Wait a week. It's poop today. Lately, for no good reason, the won has improved a day after the US stock market does well. Likewise, it poops all over itself when the US stock market goes bad.
At this point in time, that train of thought seems to work... for the moment, anyway. |
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marlow
Joined: 06 Feb 2005
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| Posted: Wed Oct 22, 2008 10:30 pm Post subject: |
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No matter what...
| bassexpander wrote: |
| ...it poops all over itself... anyway. |
Sorry.
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RJjr
Joined: 17 Aug 2006
Location: Turning on a Lamp
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| Posted: Wed Oct 22, 2008 10:43 pm Post subject: |
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| One week shouldn't make a huge difference, but I wouldn't want to hold either currency long-term. |
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nuthatch
Joined: 21 Feb 2008
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| Posted: Wed Oct 22, 2008 10:46 pm Post subject: |
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the long-term prediction for SK is not good; more than anywhere else
for many years
it will just keep going down
the longer you wait - the sorrier you will be
as soon as you have earned any won turn it immediately into dollars |
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alex83
Joined: 03 May 2007
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| Posted: Wed Oct 22, 2008 11:01 pm Post subject: |
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| nuthatch wrote: |
the long-term prediction for SK is not good; more than anywhere else
for many years
it will just keep going down
the longer you wait - the sorrier you will be
as soon as you have earned any won turn it immediately into dollars |
Sources? |
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cedarseoul
Joined: 16 Feb 2008
Location: nowon-gu
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| Posted: Thu Oct 23, 2008 3:05 am Post subject: |
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| nuthatch wrote: |
the long-term prediction for SK is not good; more than anywhere else
for many years
it will just keep going down
the longer you wait - the sorrier you will be
as soon as you have earned any won turn it immediately into dollars |
This is ridiculous, reactionary, unwarranted, and really BAD advice from yet another "economic expert" on Dave's.
Wait a week; there's bound to be at least a small upswing, quite possibly as soon as tomorrow. |
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nuthatch
Joined: 21 Feb 2008
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| Posted: Thu Oct 23, 2008 5:32 am Post subject: |
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alex83 wrote:
good question - things I read about a month ago, though I don't have the cites in front of me. I'd have to go back and research but not at this hour. If I find them I'll post.
cedarseoul wrote:
| Quote: |
| Quote: |
nuthatch wrote:
the long-term prediction for SK is not good; more than anywhere else
for many years
it will just keep going down
the longer you wait - the sorrier you will be
as soon as you have earned any won turn it immediately into dollars |
This is ridiculous, reactionary, unwarranted, and really BAD advice from yet another "economic expert" on Dave's.
Wait a week; there's bound to be at least a small upswing, quite possibly as soon as tomorrow. |
My advice has been pretty much on target on other threads where yours wasn't.
I disagree with you, cedarseoul. I am not a reactionary and feel I am fairly liberal/progressive in my personal views. I actually have been quite an "economic expert" here as most of the things I wrote on other threads prevailed over reactionaries like yourself who were in denial of the downhill slope that had been predicted. You don't have to be an "economic expert" to keep abreast of the news/columnists and face the reality. There is nothing extraordinary/reactionary at all. Common sense. |
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PeterDragon
Joined: 15 Feb 2007
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| Posted: Thu Oct 23, 2008 5:45 am Post subject: |
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I do think the won is a less-than safe bet for the forseeable future. The dollar's doing ok for now, but like the stock market, currency value can be inflated by speculation rather than reality, and everyone speculates that things will just get better and better when the Smirking Chimp leaves office in a few months. When the more complicated truth sets in and the fantasy speculation ends, lord knows what'll happen.
My advice is to convert your won into your local currency ASAP, then research which world currency is the best bet for stabilized savings. It's pretty easy to open up an online forex account through a site like fidelity.com . Whatever you do, don't invest in stocks, unless you're willing to wait a decade or so before cashing in on the return.
So, nuthatch--- what currency would you say is the safest bet? I've been researching scandinavian currencies and--- believe it or not--- some South American currencies that seem to show promise. Trying to figure out which country has a slowly but steadily growing economy and the fewest trade ties--- direct or secondhand--- to the doomed doomed DOOMED U.S. economy. |
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cedarseoul
Joined: 16 Feb 2008
Location: nowon-gu
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| Posted: Thu Oct 23, 2008 6:05 am Post subject: |
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| Quote: |
My advice has been pretty much on target on other threads where yours wasn't.
I disagree with you, cedarseoul. I am not a reactionary and feel I am fairly liberal/progressive in my personal views. I actually have been quite an "economic expert" here as most of the things I wrote on other threads prevailed over reactionaries like yourself who were in denial of the downhill slope that had been predicted. You don't have to be an "economic expert" to keep abreast of the news/columnists and face the reality. There is nothing extraordinary/reactionary at all. Common sense. |
What advice of mine are you referring to? I don't typically give advice on this board. I vaguely remember posting once or twice and suggesting that the won would eventually come around, and I still believe that - and so do most of the reports and analyses I've read (bloomberg, goldman sachs, wsj), though I'll admit I'm no *expert.*
But let's not get side-tracked, shall we? Let's revisit your claim: that the won will keep falling and falling, that we should unload our won as we earn it.
That is, I think, a dreadful idea. There is absolutely no reason to assume that the won will drop rapidly without rebound. Not only is this NOT the case historically, it hasn't been the case over the past few scary months. Take the exchange rate today - it's, what, around 1410? 1415? Something like that. It was there - and worse - at the beginning of the month, and folks here at Dave's were unloading their won like Armageddon had descended. Then, miracle of miracles, it staged a stellar rebound and spent a few nice days in the 1200s, before slowly falling back.
Will the won continue to drop? Probably, for a while, though let's not pretend that we can possibly know what the ceiling is on this thing; no one does. Should we be conscientious about that? Absolutely. Some teachers in Korea are taking risks and buying/selling to make a tidy profit; others are just trying to salvage their earnings/savings and make it out in once piece. Regardless of our particular situations, we ought to be vigilant. But let's not be rash, here; I'd hate to think some folks might lose hundreds, maybe thousands because they rush off to KEB or Woori or wherever at the first sign of a new "plummet." |
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nuthatch
Joined: 21 Feb 2008
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| Posted: Thu Oct 23, 2008 6:19 am Post subject: |
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PeterDragon - you are probably more knowledgable with regard to currencies,
however, a few days ago, on BBC TV news, an economist interviewed said (and I also read it somewhere) that, though the U.S. economy is in a shambles, the U.S. dollar is still coveted as an exchange and will continue to be - it seemed to be psychological - and also that the U.S. is such a large place with the capability to change, adapt, innovate, etc. It might take some time.
http://sanders.senate.gov/news/record.cfm?id=295256
Though I really admire the Scandinavian countries , I think they are all involved in the European quagmire contracted from the U.S. Yes, there is a lot of activity in Africa.
With my "unexpert" knowledge, personally I shall stick to U.S. dollars for now. |
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nuthatch
Joined: 21 Feb 2008
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| Posted: Thu Oct 23, 2008 6:42 am Post subject: |
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cedarseoul, since you asked - back in September you wrote:
http://forums.eslcafe.com/korea/viewtopic.php?p=1788580&highlight=#1788580
your prediction was a little off:
| Quote: |
Worst-case, indeed. I'm not overly optimistic about the won just now, and I do anticipate weakening in the months to come - but it seems highly unlikely that we will see a repeat of '97-'98. There was talk of a "September crisis" a few weeks ago, of mass-repatriation of foreigner-held assets, and that hasn't happened. The plunge yesterday was an inevitable consequence of a temporary market implosion in the States - already today, the won has regained much of what it lost.
Most of the articles that I've read, the experts and the "so-called" experts, peg the won at 1200-1250 on the low end over the next 4-6 months. Not a great rate, but not horrific in terms of its overall performance. Others continue to predict rough stability, or even a rise. Even Goldman Sachs, one of the few major US investment banks that seems likely to outlast the current crisis, has a mostly favorable view of the won's capacity to rebound (they predicted 1040/dollar in three months on Sept. 1, though they may have revised that prediction in light of recent turmoil; I'm not sure).
Bottom line: for those of us who wire home on a regular basis, I don't think we have to worry about a drastic collapse. It does pay, however, quite literally, to be vigilant - waiting a day or two to wire a large sum can have a pretty significant impact on net USD, given the roller-coaster fluctuations. |
It's not being rash to disagree with you; though I do not have the cites here, economist are predicting that things will be much worse, for a LONG time for everywhere and particularly for SK. Why should one wait and watch the exchange rate steadily drop. This is not supposed to be similar to what happened in 1990s; it is said to be on a totally different level worldwide. |
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PeterDragon
Joined: 15 Feb 2007
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| Posted: Thu Oct 23, 2008 2:43 pm Post subject: |
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| nuthatch wrote: |
Yes, there is a lot of activity in Africa.
With my "unexpert" knowledge, personally I shall stick to U.S. dollars for now. |
I said South America, not South Africa.
But Africa's a good call to. I think the trick is to find countries that are poor, but steadily developing. It doesn't matter if a currency is "weak" as long as it's steadily going up in value rather than down. The trick, I think, is to find a country poor enough that very little of its GDP is tied into credit cards or mortgages. I could be wrong about all that though; still researching.
In the long run, I'm sure the dollar will be just fine. Nobody's going to stop trading with the U.S., and the U.S. isn't going to run out of things to sell.
I'm actually tempted to buy stock in some of the major American banks that just took a kick to the teeth. Their stock is very very cheap per share right now, and most of these banks will go back up to "normal" values at some point in the future. The scary part is not knowing how long I'd have to wait for my investment to truly pay off though.
I am a little bit more optimistic about South Korea though. Not going to keep my money here for now, but I think SK has more hope than they did the last time the won crashed---- back int he 90s they had far fewer investments abroad and pretty much had their eggs in one basket. Not they have a more global portfolio of trade alliances and international assets, and thus--- IMHO--- more hope of riding out of this at the same time that the rest of the world does.
Not saying SK isn't screwed. But we're all screwed, and I don't see why SK would be significantly worse off than the other major players in Asia. |
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nuthatch
Joined: 21 Feb 2008
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| Posted: Thu Oct 23, 2008 2:51 pm Post subject: |
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sorry, PeterDragon - yes, i see now you said South America (reading too late at night)
it sounds to me as if your logic and instinct are focused in a good direction with regard to investment - from what I had heard from some of those people this past week
and yes, it was at these times of financial lows that many people bought up and years later were well off |
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alex83
Joined: 03 May 2007
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| Posted: Thu Oct 23, 2008 3:43 pm Post subject: |
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| nuthatch wrote: |
I don't have the cites in front of me. I'd have to go back and research but not at this hour. If I find them I'll post.
My advice has been pretty much on target . |
Perhaps along with those sources, you can post your qualifications that qualify you to hand out financial advice. |
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