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MANDRL
Joined: 13 Oct 2006
Location: South Korea
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 Posted: Mon Oct 27, 2008 12:06 am Post subject: |
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This is an interesting article that I pray will come true:
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Korean Won May Gain as Rate Cuts Avert Recession, Goldman Says
By Kim Kyoungwha
Oct. 27 (Bloomberg) -- South Korea's won will climb 25 percent over the next six months as lower commodity prices reduce the nation's import bill and interest-rate cuts help the economy avoid a recession, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. forecast.
The Bank of Korea lowered its benchmark seven-day repurchase rate on Oct. 9 for the first time in four years and today unexpectedly announced a record 0.75 percentage point reduction to 4.25 percent. Goldman economists Eva Yi and Kwon Goo Hoon wrote in a report that the central bank will cut by ``at least'' another quarter point in the first quarter of 2009.
``Although the won will likely remain under pressure in the near term, we expect the won to strengthen over time on the plunge in commodity prices and expected slowdown in imports,'' the report said. ``The decisive move by the Bank of Korea enhances our confidence that the Korean economy could avoid recession in 2009.''
The currency will strengthen to 1,250 versus the dollar in three months and 1,150 in six months, the economists predicted. The won fell 1 percent to 1,439 per dollar as of 12:58 p.m. in Seoul, extending this year's loss to 35 percent, Asia's worst performance. It reached a decade-low 1,485 on Oct. 9.
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http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=aurveZZrab5U&refer=asia |
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bassexpander
Joined: 13 Sep 2007
Location: Someplace you'd rather be.
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| Posted: Mon Oct 27, 2008 12:16 am Post subject: |
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| According to Yonhap, we're now at 1,442.5 won to the dollar (apparently the close). |
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Big Pun Lives
Joined: 12 Oct 2008
Location: Seoul, South Korea
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| Posted: Mon Oct 27, 2008 12:28 am Post subject: |
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| MANDRL wrote: |
This is an interesting article that I pray will come true:
| Quote: |
Korean Won May Gain as Rate Cuts Avert Recession, Goldman Says
By Kim Kyoungwha
Oct. 27 (Bloomberg) -- South Korea's won will climb 25 percent over the next six months as lower commodity prices reduce the nation's import bill and interest-rate cuts help the economy avoid a recession, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. forecast.
The Bank of Korea lowered its benchmark seven-day repurchase rate on Oct. 9 for the first time in four years and today unexpectedly announced a record 0.75 percentage point reduction to 4.25 percent. Goldman economists Eva Yi and Kwon Goo Hoon wrote in a report that the central bank will cut by ``at least'' another quarter point in the first quarter of 2009.
``Although the won will likely remain under pressure in the near term, we expect the won to strengthen over time on the plunge in commodity prices and expected slowdown in imports,'' the report said. ``The decisive move by the Bank of Korea enhances our confidence that the Korean economy could avoid recession in 2009.''
The currency will strengthen to 1,250 versus the dollar in three months and 1,150 in six months, the economists predicted. The won fell 1 percent to 1,439 per dollar as of 12:58 p.m. in Seoul, extending this year's loss to 35 percent, Asia's worst performance. It reached a decade-low 1,485 on Oct. 9.
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http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=aurveZZrab5U&refer=asia |
Yes, its great to import raw materials cheaper, but where are they going to SELL the added value goods to? The US and Europe are going to be in a recession for at least 6 months. Less demand for Korean goods means less demand for won - |
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ttompatz
Joined: 05 Sep 2005
Location: Kwangju, South Korea
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| Posted: Mon Oct 27, 2008 12:39 am Post subject: |
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| bassexpander wrote: |
| According to Yonhap, we're now at 1,442.5 won to the dollar (apparently the close). |
1483 on the wall in the bank this afternoon (buying dollars). |
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Paddycakes
Joined: 05 May 2003
Location: Seoul
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| Posted: Mon Oct 27, 2008 2:35 am Post subject: |
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| Quote: |
This is an interesting article that I pray will come true:
Quote:
Korean Won May Gain as Rate Cuts Avert Recession, Goldman Says
By Kim Kyoungwha
Oct. 27 (Bloomberg) -- South Korea's won will climb 25 percent over the next six months as lower commodity prices reduce the nation's import bill and interest-rate cuts help the economy avoid a recession, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. forecast.
The Bank of Korea lowered its benchmark seven-day repurchase rate on Oct. 9 for the first time in four years and today unexpectedly announced a record 0.75 percentage point reduction to 4.25 percent. Goldman economists Eva Yi and Kwon Goo Hoon wrote in a report that the central bank will cut by ``at least'' another quarter point in the first quarter of 2009.
``Although the won will likely remain under pressure in the near term, we expect the won to strengthen over time on the plunge in commodity prices and expected slowdown in imports,'' the report said. ``The decisive move by the Bank of Korea enhances our confidence that the Korean economy could avoid recession in 2009.''
The currency will strengthen to 1,250 versus the dollar in three months and 1,150 in six months, the economists predicted. The won fell 1 percent to 1,439 per dollar as of 12:58 p.m. in Seoul, extending this year's loss to 35 percent, Asia's worst performance. It reached a decade-low 1,485 on Oct. 9.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=aurveZZrab5U&refer=asia |
You could just as easily find another "expert" economist who will say the opposite thing.
No one knows what will happen, and if someone's prediction does come true, it was because they were lucky, not because they are analytical geniuses.
As I said before, want to know where the Won will be in the future: Pick a card, any card... |
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bassexpander
Joined: 13 Sep 2007
Location: Someplace you'd rather be.
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| Posted: Mon Oct 27, 2008 2:43 am Post subject: |
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| ttompatz wrote: |
| bassexpander wrote: |
| According to Yonhap, we're now at 1,442.5 won to the dollar (apparently the close). |
1483 on the wall in the bank this afternoon (buying dollars). |
Yeesh... glad I'm not sending money home! |
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Hightop
Joined: 11 Jun 2003
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| Posted: Mon Oct 27, 2008 5:36 pm Post subject: |
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| It has cracked 1500. |
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Tobias
Joined: 02 Jun 2008
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| Posted: Mon Oct 27, 2008 5:46 pm Post subject: Crackin |
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That's not all that's 'crackin'.
Temps have cracked 45 F where I am.
Could NOW be a great time to flee? Maybe it is. Maybe it's time to get locked into a contract at another job in another country before the true exodus from Korea begins and the crowded distribution hits the market looking for jobs. I'd like to hang around and complete my commitment, but not if I'm working for half what I was when I signed.
Declining won + declining thermometer = Runner? |
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ttompatz
Joined: 05 Sep 2005
Location: Kwangju, South Korea
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| Posted: Mon Oct 27, 2008 5:56 pm Post subject: |
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At the bank:
Cash rate - pay 1510 won to buy US$1.
*as of 11:00am, Tuesday, Oct 28. |
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harryh
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: south of Seoul
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| Posted: Mon Oct 27, 2008 6:04 pm Post subject: |
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| ttompatz wrote: |
At the bank:
Cash rate - pay 1510 won to buy US$1.
*as of 11:00am, Tuesday, Oct 28. |
Yeah, the won continues to go up. I just came back from KEB and they were charging 1,500.50 to send a dollar via cable transfer. The cash rate was 1,512 won.
The Canadian dollar - 1,154 won.
The UK pound - 2,315 won. |
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marlow
Joined: 06 Feb 2005
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| Posted: Mon Oct 27, 2008 6:15 pm Post subject: |
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1500, eh?
That means teachers in the TALK program now officially get $6.25 per hour before deductions. |
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Tobias
Joined: 02 Jun 2008
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| Posted: Mon Oct 27, 2008 8:34 pm Post subject: gotta say it |
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| Does this mean the TALK program will now become the WALK program? |
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bassexpander
Joined: 13 Sep 2007
Location: Someplace you'd rather be.
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| Posted: Mon Oct 27, 2008 8:55 pm Post subject: Re: gotta say it |
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| Tobias wrote: |
| Does this mean the TALK program will now become the WALK program? |
I hadn't thought about that. Those guys are getting absolutely raped! |
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wanderingross
Joined: 13 Oct 2008
Location: Incheon
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| Posted: Mon Oct 27, 2008 9:10 pm Post subject: |
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| MANDRL wrote: |
This is an interesting article that I pray will come true:
| Quote: |
Korean Won May Gain as Rate Cuts Avert Recession, Goldman Says
By Kim Kyoungwha
Oct. 27 (Bloomberg) -- South Korea's won will climb 25 percent over the next six months as lower commodity prices reduce the nation's import bill and interest-rate cuts help the economy avoid a recession, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. forecast.
The Bank of Korea lowered its benchmark seven-day repurchase rate on Oct. 9 for the first time in four years and today unexpectedly announced a record 0.75 percentage point reduction to 4.25 percent. Goldman economists Eva Yi and Kwon Goo Hoon wrote in a report that the central bank will cut by ``at least'' another quarter point in the first quarter of 2009.
``Although the won will likely remain under pressure in the near term, we expect the won to strengthen over time on the plunge in commodity prices and expected slowdown in imports,'' the report said. ``The decisive move by the Bank of Korea enhances our confidence that the Korean economy could avoid recession in 2009.''
The currency will strengthen to 1,250 versus the dollar in three months and 1,150 in six months, the economists predicted. The won fell 1 percent to 1,439 per dollar as of 12:58 p.m. in Seoul, extending this year's loss to 35 percent, Asia's worst performance. It reached a decade-low 1,485 on Oct. 9.
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http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=aurveZZrab5U&refer=asia |
I read this too and I'm convinced enough to hold. I know that a week ago I said I was gonna transfer and I still hold that that would probably be the smart thing to do, but I'm tired of worrying about rates. I'm gonna accumulate Won till April and I will take what I can get. If it's still horrific I'll cash out and carry a suitcase of Won home with me. The dollar is gonna tumble sooner or later.
I also like the fact that the Yen is so out of control the other direction. Take some of Korea's main exports: Cars and electronics. While they will be cheaper, the Japanese versions will be considerably more expensive. They might have the stronger currency, but its causing econ problems of its own. It might yet be seen that Korea is better suited to weather this storm. Or at least I can dream..... |
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Justin Hale
Joined: 24 Nov 2007
Location: the Straight Talk Express
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| Posted: Mon Oct 27, 2008 9:19 pm Post subject: |
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Good news for Brits: GBP could plunge to $1.38 (and presumably against the KRW too). Interest rates could drop to 0%
Bad news for Brits: Because of inflation in the UK, what ever you gain by a weak GBP will prolly be zapped by higher costs back home
That goes for all nationalities.
If you have loans to pay, earning 2-3m KRW sucks absolute ass. If however you're thinking "I wish currency X will plunge against the KRW, therefore I'll have more money" then you're dreaming. |
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