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Electoral College: O 338- M 200 (Updated 11/4)
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Ya-ta Boy



Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994
PostPosted: Mon Oct 27, 2008 1:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
No, he won't lose Arizona, but it is amazing that his support is evaporating to the point where, if this election were to last a few more weeks, he'd have to schedule some defensive appearances in his home state.

Next time around, without the homeboy factor in play, Arizona will be available to the Democrats, just like the neighboring states.

It looks like the days of a Solid South + Solid Plains/Rocky Mtn Region are gone.
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Gatsby



Joined: 09 Feb 2007
PostPosted: Tue Oct 28, 2008 5:37 am    Post subject: Reply with quote
Quote:
October 28, 2008
The TV Watch
Coverage of Election Now Lacks Suspense
By ALESSANDRA STANLEY

News shows should probably come with a spoiler alert: the following program contains images and language that seem to jump to a foregone conclusion.

Cable news and network anchors are not saying point-blank that the election is over. Instead they are saying, �We�re not saying it�s over ...� with a �but� that speaks volumes. One week away from the election news anchors and commentators have the taut, self-conscious demeanor they don on election nights when the exit polls are in, but when they are duty-bound not to declare a winner.

Sometimes, however, they can�t quite stifle the blue-stained maps in their minds.

On �Meet the Press� on Sunday, Chuck Todd, NBC�s political director, said there was something �Shakespearean� about the way Mr. McCain appears to be losing Hispanic voters in the West � despite having challenged his party on the issue of immigration reform. �You know, the S in John S. McCain is going to stand for Shakespeare, I think, when this campaign is over,� Mr. Todd said....


http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/28/arts/television/28watc.html

It may be a foregone conclusion, but it is still fun watching a NASCAR wreck.
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Ya-ta Boy



Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994
PostPosted: Wed Oct 29, 2008 3:46 am    Post subject: Reply with quote
daskalos wrote:
Ya-ta Boy wrote:
Suggestion to the canvassers:

When Mr. Smith answers the door and says he's for McCain, you can tell him so many have signed up to vote that names A-M will vote on Nov. 4 and N-Z on the 5th. It's worth a try.


Shame on you, Ya-ta, for assuming that McCain voters would be stupid enough to fall for such a trick.

(And yes, I'll pass this on). Wink


Uh-oh!!

Keith Olbermann and Rachel Maddow are both reporting that some McCain campaign worker in Virginia has been handing out flyers saying Democrats can vote on November 5.

I suspect daskalos has passed my idea on to the wrong camp Exclamation Exclamation Exclamation
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Milwaukiedave



Joined: 02 Oct 2004
Location: Goseong
PostPosted: Wed Oct 29, 2008 3:58 am    Post subject: Reply with quote
Here's the clip:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FDbbsu08Nrc
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Ya-ta Boy



Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994
PostPosted: Wed Oct 29, 2008 4:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote
Thanks for the link to that clip. I think my idea was more sophisticated than that scamp's in Virginia.
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Ya-ta Boy



Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994
PostPosted: Wed Oct 29, 2008 4:40 am    Post subject: Reply with quote
Oct 29 Update
Six days to go. NEW HAMPSHIRE has gone SOLID and NEVADA is now LEANING to Obama while McCain continues to slip in his home state of ARIZONA. McCain is spending a huge amount of time in PENNSYLVANIA (21) but it is listed at +10.5 for Obama.

SOLID for Obama: 259 electoral votes
SOLID for McCain: 127

States in bold indicate a change in the poll numbers

LEANING to McCain: 30 electoral votes
Arizona (10) +6.0 to +5.0
Georgia (15) +6.8 to +7.0 to +6.8 to +5.2 to +5.3 to +5.2 for McCain

West Virginia (5) +2.2 to +1.8 for to +1.5 to +2.4 to +6.5 to +8.0 McCain

LEANING to Obama: 52 electoral votes
Ohio (20):+3.4 to +3.2 to +2.8 to +6.0 to +6.6 to +6.0 to +6.3 for Obama
Colorado (9):+5.8 to +6.0 to +5.5 to +5.4 to +6.5 to +8.3 for Obama.
Virginia (13):+8.6 to +8.1 to +8.0 to +7.0 to +7.8 to +7.4 for Obama
Nevada (5): +2.9 to +3.0 to +4.2 to +3.3 to +3.5 to +7.5 for Obama

New Mexico (5): +6.0 to +7.8 to +7.3 to +8.4 for Obama.

New Hampshire (4) +7.7 for Obama to +12.6 SOLID for Obama

TOSS UP Obama: 64 electoral votes
North Carolina (15) +2.3 to +2.0 to +1.0 to +1.5 to +1.3 for Obama
Florida (27) +4.8 to +3.2 to +2.0 +1.0 to +2.2 to +1.9 to +3.4 for Obama
Indiana (11):+3.8 to +0.6 McCain to +0.5 to +0.3 to +1.4 for Obama
Missouri (11) from +2.2 to +1.8 to +2.5 to +2.7 to +1.0 to +0.6 Obama

TOSS UP McCain: 6 electoral votes
Montana (3) +5.6 to +3.3 to +3.4 McCain

North Dakota (3) +4.0 McCain

TOTALS:
(Solid = lead over 10%)
(Leaning = leading by between 5 & 10%)
(Toss up = leading by under 5%)

Obama:
SOLID 157 + LEANING 60 (217) + TOSS UP 56 = 273 (9/12)
SOLID 157 + LEANING 50 (207) + TOSS UP 56 = 273 (9/15)
SOLID 164 + LEANING 38 (202) + TOSS UP 71 = 273 (9/22)
SOLID 164 + LEANING 64 (228) + TOSS UP 45 = 273
SOLID 171 + LEANING 57 (228) + TOSS UP 58 = 286
SOLID 171 + LEANING 57 (228) + TOSS UP 73 = 301 (9/29)
SOLID 171 + LEANING 88 (259) + TOSS UP 94 = 353 (Oct 2)
SOLID 192 + LEANING 72 (264) + TOSS UP 89 = 353 (Oct 6)
SOLID 192 + LEANING 72 (264) + TOSS UP 100 = 364 (Oct 7)
SOLID 211 + LEANING 66 (277) + TOSS UP 76 = 353 (Oct 10)
SOLID 211 + LEANING 66 (277) + TOSS UP 76 = 353 (Oct 14)
SOLID 211 + LEANING 93 (304) + TOSS UP 60 = 364 (Oct 14) 2nd Up-date
SOLID 238 + LEANING 75 (313) + TOSS UP 51 = 364 (Oct 15)
SOLID 249 + LEANING 37 (286) + TOSS UP 78 = 364 (Oct 16)
SOLID 249 + LEANING 37 (286) + TOSS UP 78 = 364 (Oct 19)
SOLID 249 + LEANING 37 (286) + TOSS UP 78 = 364 (Oct 20)
SOLID 259 + LEANING 27 (286) + TOSS UP 78 = 364 (Oct 21)
SOLID 259 + LEANING 47 (306) + TOSS UP 58 = 364 (Oct 23)
SOLID 259 + LEANING 47 (306) + TOSS UP 69 = 375 (Oct 25)
SOLID 255 + LEANING 51 (306) + TOSS UP 69 = 375 (Oct 28 )
SOLID 259 + LEANING 52 (311) + TOSS UP 64 = 375 (Oct 29)

McCain:
SOLID 175 + LEANING 41 (216) + TOSS UP 49 = 265 (9/12)
SOLID 175 + LEANING 52 (227) + TOSS UP 49 = 265 (9/15)
SOLID 163 + LEANING 26 (189) + TOSS UP 76 = 265 (9/22)
SOLID 163 + LEANING 11 (174) + TOSS UP 91 = 265
SOLID 158 + LEANING 05 (163) + TOSS UP 89 = 252
SOLID 158 + LEANING 05 (163) + TOSS UP 74 = 237 (9/29)
SOLID 158 + LEANING 05 (163) + TOSS UP 22 = 185 (Oct 2)
SOLID 158 + LEANING 05 (163) + TOSS UP 22 = 185 (Oct 6)
SOLID 143 + LEANING 20 (163) + TOSS UP 11 = 174 (Oct 7)
SOLID 143 + LEANING 15 (158) + TOSS UP 27 = 185 (Oct 10)
SOLID 140 + LEANING 18 (158) + TOSS UP 27 = 185 (Oct 14)
SOLID 140 + LEANING 18 (158) + TOSS UP 16 = 174 (Oct 14) 2nd Up-date
SOLID 140 + LEANING 18 (158) + TOSS UP 16 = 174 (Oct 15)
SOLID 140 + LEANING 18 (158) + TOSS UP 16 = 174 (Oct 16)
SOLID 140 + LEANING 15 (155) + TOSS UP 19 = 174 (Oct 19)
SOLID 137 + LEANING 18 (155) + TOSS UP 19 = 174 (Oct 20)
SOLID 137 + LEANING 18 (155) + TOSS UP 19 = 174 (Oct 21)
SOLID 137 + LEANING 23 (160) + TOSS UP 14 = 174 (Oct 23)
SOLID 137 + LEANING 20 (157) + TOSS UP 6 = 163 (Oct 25)
SOLID 127 + LEANING 30 (157) + TOSS UP 6 = 163 (Oct 28 )
SOLID 127 + LEANING 30 (157) + TOSS UP 6 = 163 (Oct 29)
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Milwaukiedave



Joined: 02 Oct 2004
Location: Goseong
PostPosted: Wed Oct 29, 2008 5:10 am    Post subject: Reply with quote
McCain and Palin can camp in PA for the next 6 days, but they still won't win it. Meanwhile Ohio, Virginia, Colorado and Nevada are slipping away. New Hampshire is a lost cause. Georgia and Arizona I honestly don't think will flip (I don't expect Montana or North Dakota either), but they may end up being closer then expected.

At this point, the McCain camp is going in ten different directions.
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Manner of Speaking



Joined: 09 Jan 2003
PostPosted: Wed Oct 29, 2008 5:21 am    Post subject: Reply with quote
There are times when having, reading, or providing too much detail just detracts from having a clear image of what is going on.

With all due respect...I think it's fair to say that this election was decided the moment the candidates were finalized.
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Ya-ta Boy



Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994
PostPosted: Wed Oct 29, 2008 8:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
Oct 30 Update
Don�t look now, but there went GEORGIA. Someone is reporting that McCain has started robocalls in ARIZONA to hang on there.

SOLID for Obama: 259 electoral votes
SOLID for McCain: 127

States in bold indicate a change in the poll numbers

LEANING to McCain: 15 electoral votes
Arizona (10) +6.0 to +5.0
West Virginia (5) +2.2 to +1.8 for to +1.5 to +2.4 to +6.5 to +8.0 McCain

LEANING to Obama: 52 electoral votes
Ohio (20):+3.2 to +2.8 to +6.0 to +6.6 to +6.0 to +6.3 to +5.8 for Obama
Colorado (9):+6.0 to +5.5 to +5.4 to +6.5 to +8.3 to +7.2 for Obama.
Virginia (13):+8.1 to +8.0 to +7.0 to +7.8 to +7.4 to +7.6 for Obama
New Mexico (5): +6.0 to +7.8 to +7.3 to +8.4 to +7.3 for Obama

Nevada (5): +2.9 to +3.0 to +4.2 to +3.3 to +3.5 to +7.5 for Obama.


TOSS UP Obama: 64 electoral votes
Florida (27) +3.2 to +2.0 +1.0 to +2.2 to +1.9 to +3.4 to +3.5 for Obama
Missouri (11) +2.2 to +1.8 to +2.5 to +2.7 to +1.0 to +0.6 to +0.2 Obama

North Carolina (15) +2.3 to +2.0 to +1.0 to +1.5 to +1.3 for Obama
Indiana (11):+3.8 to +0.6 McCain to +0.5 to +0.3 to +1.4 for Obama

TOSS UP McCain: 21 electoral votes
Georgia (15) +7.0 to +6.8 to +5.2 to +5.3 to +5.2 to +4.2 for McCain

Montana (3) +5.6 to +3.3 to +3.4 McCain
North Dakota (3) +4.0 McCain

TOTALS:
(Solid = lead over 10%)
(Leaning = leading by between 5 & 10%)
(Toss up = leading by under 5%)

Obama:
SOLID 157 + LEANING 60 (217) + TOSS UP 56 = 273 (9/12)
SOLID 157 + LEANING 50 (207) + TOSS UP 56 = 273 (9/15)
SOLID 164 + LEANING 38 (202) + TOSS UP 71 = 273 (9/22)
SOLID 164 + LEANING 64 (228) + TOSS UP 45 = 273
SOLID 171 + LEANING 57 (228) + TOSS UP 58 = 286
SOLID 171 + LEANING 57 (228) + TOSS UP 73 = 301 (9/29)
SOLID 171 + LEANING 88 (259) + TOSS UP 94 = 353 (Oct 2)
SOLID 192 + LEANING 72 (264) + TOSS UP 89 = 353 (Oct 6)
SOLID 192 + LEANING 72 (264) + TOSS UP 100 = 364 (Oct 7)
SOLID 211 + LEANING 66 (277) + TOSS UP 76 = 353 (Oct 10)
SOLID 211 + LEANING 66 (277) + TOSS UP 76 = 353 (Oct 14)
SOLID 211 + LEANING 93 (304) + TOSS UP 60 = 364 (Oct 14) 2nd Up-date
SOLID 238 + LEANING 75 (313) + TOSS UP 51 = 364 (Oct 15)
SOLID 249 + LEANING 37 (286) + TOSS UP 78 = 364 (Oct 16)
SOLID 249 + LEANING 37 (286) + TOSS UP 78 = 364 (Oct 19)
SOLID 249 + LEANING 37 (286) + TOSS UP 78 = 364 (Oct 20)
SOLID 259 + LEANING 27 (286) + TOSS UP 78 = 364 (Oct 21)
SOLID 259 + LEANING 47 (306) + TOSS UP 58 = 364 (Oct 23)
SOLID 259 + LEANING 47 (306) + TOSS UP 69 = 375 (Oct 25)
SOLID 255 + LEANING 51 (306) + TOSS UP 69 = 375 (Oct 28 )
SOLID 259 + LEANING 52 (311) + TOSS UP 64 = 375 (Oct 29)
SOLID 259 + LEANING 52 (311) + TOSS UP 64 = 375 (Oct 30)

McCain:
SOLID 175 + LEANING 41 (216) + TOSS UP 49 = 265 (9/12)
SOLID 175 + LEANING 52 (227) + TOSS UP 49 = 265 (9/15)
SOLID 163 + LEANING 26 (189) + TOSS UP 76 = 265 (9/22)
SOLID 163 + LEANING 11 (174) + TOSS UP 91 = 265
SOLID 158 + LEANING 05 (163) + TOSS UP 89 = 252
SOLID 158 + LEANING 05 (163) + TOSS UP 74 = 237 (9/29)
SOLID 158 + LEANING 05 (163) + TOSS UP 22 = 185 (Oct 2)
SOLID 158 + LEANING 05 (163) + TOSS UP 22 = 185 (Oct 6)
SOLID 143 + LEANING 20 (163) + TOSS UP 11 = 174 (Oct 7)
SOLID 143 + LEANING 15 (158) + TOSS UP 27 = 185 (Oct 10)
SOLID 140 + LEANING 18 (158) + TOSS UP 27 = 185 (Oct 14)
SOLID 140 + LEANING 18 (158) + TOSS UP 16 = 174 (Oct 14) 2nd Up-date
SOLID 140 + LEANING 18 (158) + TOSS UP 16 = 174 (Oct 15)
SOLID 140 + LEANING 18 (158) + TOSS UP 16 = 174 (Oct 16)
SOLID 140 + LEANING 15 (155) + TOSS UP 19 = 174 (Oct 19)
SOLID 137 + LEANING 18 (155) + TOSS UP 19 = 174 (Oct 20)
SOLID 137 + LEANING 18 (155) + TOSS UP 19 = 174 (Oct 21)
SOLID 137 + LEANING 23 (160) + TOSS UP 14 = 174 (Oct 23)
SOLID 137 + LEANING 20 (157) + TOSS UP 6 = 163 (Oct 25)
SOLID 127 + LEANING 30 (157) + TOSS UP 6 = 163 (Oct 28 )
SOLID 127 + LEANING 30 (157) + TOSS UP 6 = 163 (Oct 29)
SOLID 127 + LEANING 15 (142) + TOSS UP 21 = 163 (Oct 30)
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Milwaukiedave



Joined: 02 Oct 2004
Location: Goseong
PostPosted: Wed Oct 29, 2008 11:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
You know it's pretty bad when you have to start dumping money into your homestate. Especially when you have to do robocalls.


Maybe McCain should steal the robocall idea from the guy in California. I'll even write the script for him:

"Barack Obama has been a baadd boy. He hates the constitution, is a socialist, wants to raise your taxes and eat your children."

If you missed the call, here it is again:

http://zane2008.com/uploads/soundclip.wav
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Ya-ta Boy



Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994
PostPosted: Fri Oct 31, 2008 2:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
November 1 Update

Well, we�re down to the wire. Pollsters must be out in droves this weekend to get in the last polls to be announced on Monday or Tuesday morning. The numbers say the race is tightening by fractions. The big number change in totals is because PENNSYLVANIA has slipped down to �only� +9.3 for Obama and INDIANA has slid back into McCain�s column.

SOLID for Obama: 259 electoral votes down to 238
SOLID for McCain: 127

States in bold indicate a change in the poll numbers

LEANING to McCain: 15 electoral votes
Arizona (10) +6.0 to +5.0 to +5.2 McCain
West Virginia (5) +2.2 to +1.8 for to +1.5 to +2.4 to +6.5 to +8.0 McCain

LEANING to Obama: 73 electoral votes
Colorado (9):+5.5 to +5.4 to +6.5 to +8.3 to +7.2 to +6.5 for Obama.
Virginia (13):+8.0 to +7.0 to +7.8 to +7.4 to +7.6 to +6.5 for Obama
Nevada (5): +3.0 to +4.2 to +3.3 to +3.5 to +7.5 to +7.0 for Obama.
Pennsylvania (21) +9.3 for Obama

New Mexico (5): +6.0 to +7.8 to +7.3 to +8.4 to +7.3 for Obama
Ohio (20):+3.2 to +2.8 to +6.0 to +6.6 to +6.0 to +6.3 to +5.8 for Obama


TOSS UP Obama: 53 electoral votes
Missouri (11) +1.8 to +2.5 to +2.7 to +1.0 to +0.6 to +0.2 to 0.4 Obama
North Carolina (15) +2.0 to +1.0 to +1.5 to +1.3 to +2.6 for Obama

Florida (27) +3.2 to +2.0 +1.0 to +2.2 to +1.9 to +3.4 to +3.5 for Obama

TOSS UP McCain: 32 electoral votes
Indiana (11):+3.8 to +0.6 McCain to +0.5 to +0.3 to +1.4 to Obama to +1.7 for McCain
Montana (3) +5.6 to +3.3 to +3.4 to +2.0 McCain

North Dakota (3) +4.0 McCain
Georgia (15) +7.0 to +6.8 to +5.2 to +5.3 to +5.2 to +4.2 for McCain

TOTALS:
(Solid = lead over 10%)
(Leaning = leading by between 5 & 10%)
(Toss up = leading by under 5%)

Obama:
SOLID 157 + LEANING 60 (217) + TOSS UP 56 = 273 (9/12)
SOLID 157 + LEANING 50 (207) + TOSS UP 56 = 273 (9/15)
SOLID 164 + LEANING 38 (202) + TOSS UP 71 = 273 (9/22)
SOLID 164 + LEANING 64 (228) + TOSS UP 45 = 273
SOLID 171 + LEANING 57 (228) + TOSS UP 58 = 286
SOLID 171 + LEANING 57 (228) + TOSS UP 73 = 301 (9/29)
SOLID 171 + LEANING 88 (259) + TOSS UP 94 = 353 (Oct 2)
SOLID 192 + LEANING 72 (264) + TOSS UP 89 = 353 (Oct 6)
SOLID 192 + LEANING 72 (264) + TOSS UP 100 = 364 (Oct 7)
SOLID 211 + LEANING 66 (277) + TOSS UP 76 = 353 (Oct 10)
SOLID 211 + LEANING 66 (277) + TOSS UP 76 = 353 (Oct 14)
SOLID 211 + LEANING 93 (304) + TOSS UP 60 = 364 (Oct 14) 2nd Up-date
SOLID 238 + LEANING 75 (313) + TOSS UP 51 = 364 (Oct 15)
SOLID 249 + LEANING 37 (286) + TOSS UP 78 = 364 (Oct 16)
SOLID 249 + LEANING 37 (286) + TOSS UP 78 = 364 (Oct 19)
SOLID 249 + LEANING 37 (286) + TOSS UP 78 = 364 (Oct 20)
SOLID 259 + LEANING 27 (286) + TOSS UP 78 = 364 (Oct 21)
SOLID 259 + LEANING 47 (306) + TOSS UP 58 = 364 (Oct 23)
SOLID 259 + LEANING 47 (306) + TOSS UP 69 = 375 (Oct 25)
SOLID 255 + LEANING 51 (306) + TOSS UP 69 = 375 (Oct 28 )
SOLID 259 + LEANING 52 (311) + TOSS UP 64 = 375 (Oct 29)
SOLID 259 + LEANING 52 (311) + TOSS UP 64 = 375 (Oct 30)
SOLID 238 + LEANING 73 (311) + TOSS UP 53 = 364 (Nov 1)


McCain:
SOLID 175 + LEANING 41 (216) + TOSS UP 49 = 265 (9/12)
SOLID 175 + LEANING 52 (227) + TOSS UP 49 = 265 (9/15)
SOLID 163 + LEANING 26 (189) + TOSS UP 76 = 265 (9/22)
SOLID 163 + LEANING 11 (174) + TOSS UP 91 = 265
SOLID 158 + LEANING 05 (163) + TOSS UP 89 = 252
SOLID 158 + LEANING 05 (163) + TOSS UP 74 = 237 (9/29)
SOLID 158 + LEANING 05 (163) + TOSS UP 22 = 185 (Oct 2)
SOLID 158 + LEANING 05 (163) + TOSS UP 22 = 185 (Oct 6)
SOLID 143 + LEANING 20 (163) + TOSS UP 11 = 174 (Oct 7)
SOLID 143 + LEANING 15 (158) + TOSS UP 27 = 185 (Oct 10)
SOLID 140 + LEANING 18 (158) + TOSS UP 27 = 185 (Oct 14)
SOLID 140 + LEANING 18 (158) + TOSS UP 16 = 174 (Oct 14) 2nd Up-date
SOLID 140 + LEANING 18 (158) + TOSS UP 16 = 174 (Oct 15)
SOLID 140 + LEANING 18 (158) + TOSS UP 16 = 174 (Oct 16)
SOLID 140 + LEANING 15 (155) + TOSS UP 19 = 174 (Oct 19)
SOLID 137 + LEANING 18 (155) + TOSS UP 19 = 174 (Oct 20)
SOLID 137 + LEANING 18 (155) + TOSS UP 19 = 174 (Oct 21)
SOLID 137 + LEANING 23 (160) + TOSS UP 14 = 174 (Oct 23)
SOLID 137 + LEANING 20 (157) + TOSS UP 6 = 163 (Oct 25)
SOLID 127 + LEANING 30 (157) + TOSS UP 6 = 163 (Oct 28 )
SOLID 127 + LEANING 30 (157) + TOSS UP 6 = 163 (Oct 29)
SOLID 127 + LEANING 15 (142) + TOSS UP 21 = 163 (Oct 30)
SOLID 127 + LEANING 15 (142) + TOSS UP 32 = 174 (Nov 1)
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Gatsby



Joined: 09 Feb 2007
PostPosted: Sat Nov 01, 2008 5:44 am    Post subject: Reply with quote
If I were a savvy Democrat, and a pollster queried me, I would say I was voting for McCain.

If you are an Obama voter, you don't want supporters getting over-confident, or thinking their vote isn't necessary. You want every Obama voter to go to the polls. And if the polls are too lopsided, some people might not bother.

This goes both ways, of course. Some McCain supporters might not show up, thinking it is already lost.

McCain, perhaps, would have done better by pretty much conceding, thereby getting many Obama voters to skip voting. By continuing to threaten an upset, he has motivated Obama voters to make sure they go to the polls.

If I were Black, especially if I were elderly, I would not miss casting my vote, even if it killed me. Think of what it must be like for an 80 something Black person to finally have an opportunity to cast their vote to elect a Black President!

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/01/opinion/01herbert.html?ref=opinion

I think the motivation to vote is much stronger for Blacks (and women) to vote this time, than for evangelicals.

Heck, I think that some conservative Christians, in the privacy of the polling booth, are going to vote for Obama. They can't all be crazy, but they are under pressure from their churches.

I don't think the outcome of the election is in doubt. But this will be a big test of polling accuracy, given how much the electorate has changed. So it will be very interesting to compare the final outcome with the poll predictions.

It will also be a test of the electronic voting machines. Will they work? Will there be suspicious results?

If Obama loses, there are going to be some very, very disgruntled and suspicious voters.
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Ya-ta Boy



Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994
PostPosted: Sat Nov 01, 2008 2:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
November 2 Update

Oops. ARIZONA just went TOSS UP. Some other states shifted back and forth, too. Usually football metaphors explaining life or anything else , meh, but Rachel Maddow does a brilliant one here explaining the race: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=385x228720 Anyway, according to the numbers, McCain is strengthening fractionally everywhere except GEORGIA, FLORIDA and ARIZONA. The thing to keep in mind is that if Obama takes the states listed as SOLID and LEANING for him, he is at 311 electoral votes, 41 more than he needs to win; taking any TOSS UP state is just frosting on the cake.

SOLID for Obama: 238
SOLID for McCain: 127

States in bold indicate a change in the poll numbers

LEANING to McCain: 5 electoral votes
West Virginia (5) +1.8 for to +1.5 to +2.4 to +6.5 to +8.0 to +8.5 McCain

LEANING to Obama: 73 electoral votes
Colorado (9):+5.4 to +6.5 to +8.3 to +7.2 to +6.5 to +6.2 for Obama.
Virginia (13):+7.0 to +7.8 to +7.4 to +7.6 to +6.5 to +6.0 for Obama
Nevada (5): +4.2 to +3.3 to +3.5 to +7.5 to +7.0 to +6.5 for Obama.
Pennsylvania (21) +9.3 to +8.5 for Obama
Ohio (20):+2.8 to +6.0 to +6.6 to +6.0 to +6.3 to +5.8 to +5.6 for Obama

New Mexico (5): +6.0 to +7.8 to +7.3 to +8.4 to +7.3 for Obama

TOSS UP Obama: 42 electoral votes
North Carolina (15) +1.0 to +1.5 to +1.3 to +2.6 to +1.3 for Obama
Florida (27) +2.0 +1.0 to +2.2 to +1.9 to +3.4 to +3.5 to +4.2 for Obama

TOSS UP McCain: 53 electoral votes
Arizona (10) +6.0 to +5.0 to +5.2 to +3.5 McCain
Indiana (11): +0.5 to +0.3 to +1.4 Obama to +1.7 to +0.5 for McCain
Montana (3) +5.6 to +3.3 to +3.4 to +2.0 to +3.8 McCain
Missouri (11) +2.7 to +1.0 to +0.6 to +0.2 to 0.4 Obama to +0.6 McCain
Georgia (15) +6.8 to +5.2 to +5.3 to +5.2 to +4.2 to +3.0 for McCain

North Dakota (3) +4.0 McCain

TOTALS:
(Solid = lead over 10%)
(Leaning = leading by between 5 & 10%)
(Toss up = leading by under 5%)

Obama:
SOLID 157 + LEANING 60 (217) + TOSS UP 56 = 273 (9/12)
SOLID 157 + LEANING 50 (207) + TOSS UP 56 = 273 (9/15)
SOLID 164 + LEANING 38 (202) + TOSS UP 71 = 273 (9/22)
SOLID 164 + LEANING 64 (228) + TOSS UP 45 = 273
SOLID 171 + LEANING 57 (228) + TOSS UP 58 = 286
SOLID 171 + LEANING 57 (228) + TOSS UP 73 = 301 (9/29)
SOLID 171 + LEANING 88 (259) + TOSS UP 94 = 353 (Oct 2)
SOLID 192 + LEANING 72 (264) + TOSS UP 89 = 353 (Oct 6)
SOLID 192 + LEANING 72 (264) + TOSS UP 100 = 364 (Oct 7)
SOLID 211 + LEANING 66 (277) + TOSS UP 76 = 353 (Oct 10)
SOLID 211 + LEANING 66 (277) + TOSS UP 76 = 353 (Oct 14)
SOLID 211 + LEANING 93 (304) + TOSS UP 60 = 364 (Oct 14) 2nd Up-date
SOLID 238 + LEANING 75 (313) + TOSS UP 51 = 364 (Oct 15)
SOLID 249 + LEANING 37 (286) + TOSS UP 78 = 364 (Oct 16)
SOLID 249 + LEANING 37 (286) + TOSS UP 78 = 364 (Oct 19)
SOLID 249 + LEANING 37 (286) + TOSS UP 78 = 364 (Oct 20)
SOLID 259 + LEANING 27 (286) + TOSS UP 78 = 364 (Oct 21)
SOLID 259 + LEANING 47 (306) + TOSS UP 58 = 364 (Oct 23)
SOLID 259 + LEANING 47 (306) + TOSS UP 69 = 375 (Oct 25)
SOLID 255 + LEANING 51 (306) + TOSS UP 69 = 375 (Oct 28 )
SOLID 259 + LEANING 52 (311) + TOSS UP 64 = 375 (Oct 29 )
SOLID 259 + LEANING 52 (311) + TOSS UP 64 = 375 (Oct 30)
SOLID 238 + LEANING 73 (311) + TOSS UP 53 = 364 (Nov 1)
SOLID 238 + LEANING 73 (311) + TOSS UP 42 = 353 (Nov 2)

McCain:
SOLID 175 + LEANING 41 (216) + TOSS UP 49 = 265 (9/12)
SOLID 175 + LEANING 52 (227) + TOSS UP 49 = 265 (9/15)
SOLID 163 + LEANING 26 (189) + TOSS UP 76 = 265 (9/22)
SOLID 163 + LEANING 11 (174) + TOSS UP 91 = 265
SOLID 158 + LEANING 05 (163) + TOSS UP 89 = 252
SOLID 158 + LEANING 05 (163) + TOSS UP 74 = 237 (9/29)
SOLID 158 + LEANING 05 (163) + TOSS UP 22 = 185 (Oct 2)
SOLID 158 + LEANING 05 (163) + TOSS UP 22 = 185 (Oct 6)
SOLID 143 + LEANING 20 (163) + TOSS UP 11 = 174 (Oct 7)
SOLID 143 + LEANING 15 (158) + TOSS UP 27 = 185 (Oct 10)
SOLID 140 + LEANING 18 (158) + TOSS UP 27 = 185 (Oct 14)
SOLID 140 + LEANING 18 (158) + TOSS UP 16 = 174 (Oct 14) 2nd Up-date
SOLID 140 + LEANING 18 (158) + TOSS UP 16 = 174 (Oct 15)
SOLID 140 + LEANING 18 (158) + TOSS UP 16 = 174 (Oct 16)
SOLID 140 + LEANING 15 (155) + TOSS UP 19 = 174 (Oct 19)
SOLID 137 + LEANING 18 (155) + TOSS UP 19 = 174 (Oct 20)
SOLID 137 + LEANING 18 (155) + TOSS UP 19 = 174 (Oct 21)
SOLID 137 + LEANING 23 (160) + TOSS UP 14 = 174 (Oct 23)
SOLID 137 + LEANING 20 (157) + TOSS UP 6 = 163 (Oct 25)
SOLID 127 + LEANING 30 (157) + TOSS UP 6 = 163 (Oct 28 )
SOLID 127 + LEANING 30 (157) + TOSS UP 6 = 163 (Oct 29)
SOLID 127 + LEANING 15 (142) + TOSS UP 21 = 163 (Oct 30)
SOLID 127 + LEANING 15 (142) + TOSS UP 32 = 174 (Nov 1)
SOLID 127 + LEANING 5 (132) + TOSS UP 53 = 185 (Nov 2)
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Ya-ta Boy



Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994
PostPosted: Sun Nov 02, 2008 2:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
November 3 Update

Well hello, ARKANSAS and SOUTH DAKOTA. What are you doing here? Welcome to the party. Better late than never. McCain does seem to be strengthening in some areas but weakening in others. One day of campaigning left. All Obama has to do is carry his SOLID and LEANING states to get to 278. McCain could then run the table and still lose. I don�t think he can do that.

SOLID for Obama: 238
SOLID for McCain: 127 down to 118

States in bold indicate a change in the poll numbers

LEANING to McCain: 14 electoral votes
South Dakota (3) +8.3 for McCain
Arkansas (6) +9.3 for McCain

West Virginia (5) +1.8 for to +1.5 to +2.4 to +6.5 to +8.0 to +8.5 McCain

LEANING to Obama: 40 electoral votes
Colorado (9):+6.5 to +8.3 to +7.2 to +6.5 to +6.2 to +5.5 for Obama.
Nevada (5): +3.3 to +3.5 to +7.5 to +7.0 to +6.5 to +5.8 for Obama.
Pennsylvania (21) +9.3 to +8.5 to +7.0 for Obama

New Mexico (5): +6.0 to +7.8 to +7.3 to +8.4 to +7.3 for Obama

TOSS UP Obama: 75 electoral votes
Ohio (20):+6.0 to +6.6 to +6.0 to +6.3 to +5.8 to +5.6 to +4.2 for Obama
Virginia (13): +7.8 to +7.4 to +7.6 to +6.5 to +6.0 to +3.8 for Obama
North Carolina (15) +1.5 to +1.3 to +2.6 to +1.3 to +0.3 for Obama

Florida (27) +2.0 +1.0 to +2.2 to +1.9 to +3.4 to +3.5 to +4.2 for Obama

TOSS UP McCain: 53 electoral votes
Missouri (11) +1.0 to +0.6 to +0.2 to 0.4 Obama to +0.6 to +0.7 McCain
Indiana (11): +0.5 to +0.3 to +1.4 Obama to +1.7 to +0.5 for McCain
Montana (3) +5.6 to +3.3 to +3.4 to +2.0 to +3.8 McCain
Georgia (15) +6.8 to +5.2 to +5.3 to +5.2 to +4.2 to +3.0 for McCain
North Dakota (3) +4.0 McCain
Arizona (10) +6.0 to +5.0 to +5.2 to +3.5 McCain

TOTALS:
(Solid = lead over 10%)
(Leaning = leading by between 5 & 10%)
(Toss up = leading by under 5%)

Obama:
SOLID 157 + LEANING 60 (217) + TOSS UP 56 = 273 (9/12)
SOLID 157 + LEANING 50 (207) + TOSS UP 56 = 273 (9/15)
SOLID 164 + LEANING 38 (202) + TOSS UP 71 = 273 (9/22)
SOLID 164 + LEANING 64 (228) + TOSS UP 45 = 273
SOLID 171 + LEANING 57 (228) + TOSS UP 58 = 286
SOLID 171 + LEANING 57 (228) + TOSS UP 73 = 301 (9/29)
SOLID 171 + LEANING 88 (259) + TOSS UP 94 = 353 (Oct 2)
SOLID 192 + LEANING 72 (264) + TOSS UP 89 = 353 (Oct 6)
SOLID 192 + LEANING 72 (264) + TOSS UP 100 = 364 (Oct 7)
SOLID 211 + LEANING 66 (277) + TOSS UP 76 = 353 (Oct 10)
SOLID 211 + LEANING 66 (277) + TOSS UP 76 = 353 (Oct 14)
SOLID 211 + LEANING 93 (304) + TOSS UP 60 = 364 (Oct 14) 2nd Up-date
SOLID 238 + LEANING 75 (313) + TOSS UP 51 = 364 (Oct 15)
SOLID 249 + LEANING 37 (286) + TOSS UP 78 = 364 (Oct 16)
SOLID 249 + LEANING 37 (286) + TOSS UP 78 = 364 (Oct 19)
SOLID 249 + LEANING 37 (286) + TOSS UP 78 = 364 (Oct 20)
SOLID 259 + LEANING 27 (286) + TOSS UP 78 = 364 (Oct 21)
SOLID 259 + LEANING 47 (306) + TOSS UP 58 = 364 (Oct 23)
SOLID 259 + LEANING 47 (306) + TOSS UP 69 = 375 (Oct 25)
SOLID 255 + LEANING 51 (306) + TOSS UP 69 = 375 (Oct 28 )
SOLID 259 + LEANING 52 (311) + TOSS UP 64 = 375 (Oct 29 )
SOLID 259 + LEANING 52 (311) + TOSS UP 64 = 375 (Oct 30)
SOLID 238 + LEANING 73 (311) + TOSS UP 53 = 364 (Nov 1)
SOLID 238 + LEANING 73 (311) + TOSS UP 42 = 353 (Nov 2)
SOLID 238 + LEANING 40 (278) + TOSS UP 75 = 353 (Nov 3)

McCain:
SOLID 175 + LEANING 41 (216) + TOSS UP 49 = 265 (9/12)
SOLID 175 + LEANING 52 (227) + TOSS UP 49 = 265 (9/15)
SOLID 163 + LEANING 26 (189) + TOSS UP 76 = 265 (9/22)
SOLID 163 + LEANING 11 (174) + TOSS UP 91 = 265
SOLID 158 + LEANING 05 (163) + TOSS UP 89 = 252
SOLID 158 + LEANING 05 (163) + TOSS UP 74 = 237 (9/29)
SOLID 158 + LEANING 05 (163) + TOSS UP 22 = 185 (Oct 2)
SOLID 158 + LEANING 05 (163) + TOSS UP 22 = 185 (Oct 6)
SOLID 143 + LEANING 20 (163) + TOSS UP 11 = 174 (Oct 7)
SOLID 143 + LEANING 15 (158) + TOSS UP 27 = 185 (Oct 10)
SOLID 140 + LEANING 18 (158) + TOSS UP 27 = 185 (Oct 14)
SOLID 140 + LEANING 18 (158) + TOSS UP 16 = 174 (Oct 14) 2nd Up-date
SOLID 140 + LEANING 18 (158) + TOSS UP 16 = 174 (Oct 15)
SOLID 140 + LEANING 18 (158) + TOSS UP 16 = 174 (Oct 16)
SOLID 140 + LEANING 15 (155) + TOSS UP 19 = 174 (Oct 19)
SOLID 137 + LEANING 18 (155) + TOSS UP 19 = 174 (Oct 20)
SOLID 137 + LEANING 18 (155) + TOSS UP 19 = 174 (Oct 21)
SOLID 137 + LEANING 23 (160) + TOSS UP 14 = 174 (Oct 23)
SOLID 137 + LEANING 20 (157) + TOSS UP 6 = 163 (Oct 25)
SOLID 127 + LEANING 30 (157) + TOSS UP 6 = 163 (Oct 28 )
SOLID 127 + LEANING 30 (157) + TOSS UP 6 = 163 (Oct 29)
SOLID 127 + LEANING 15 (142) + TOSS UP 21 = 163 (Oct 30)
SOLID 127 + LEANING 15 (142) + TOSS UP 32 = 174 (Nov 1)
SOLID 127 + LEANING 5 (132) + TOSS UP 53 = 185 (Nov 2)
SOLID 118 + LEANING 14 (132) + TOSS UP 53 = 185 (Nov 3)
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Kuros



Joined: 27 Apr 2004
PostPosted: Sun Nov 02, 2008 3:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
WSJ provides data allowing you to attribute states candidates will win to declines or increases in housing prices.

Greg Mankiw:

Quote:
Obama leads in 18 out of the 19 states with the largest recent declines in home prices, whereas McCain leads in 13 out of the 14 states with the largest recent increases in home prices.


What's the 19th state with the largest recent decline in home prices that Obama doesn't lead in? Arizona.

I know correlation is not causation, but its the economy, stupid.
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