| View previous topic :: View next topic |
| Author |
Message |
Ya-ta Boy
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994
|
 Posted: Wed Oct 29, 2008 2:24 pm Post subject: Why the Race Isn't Over |
 |
|
Howard Fineman's article makes good reading and seems about right.
Why It�s Still a Race
Why hasn�t Obama run away with this?
Because the country remains culturally divided. Because the more it looks like Democrats will score huge gains in Congress, the more worried �soft Republican� voters get. Because McCain has succeeded, in the minds of some of those voters, in raising the hoary specter of �tax-and-spend� liberals. Because Obama hails from a place (South Side Chicago) and background (the son of professional academics) more reminiscent of Democratic losers like Michael Dukakis, Al Gore and John Kerry than winners like LBJ, Jimmy Carter or Bill Clinton. Because some voters remember the hate-filled sound bites of the Rev. Jeremiah Wright.
And, to a degree we cannot measure and may never fully know, because Obama is an African-American---and one with a Swahili name at that.
http://blog.newsweek.com/blogs/racetothefinish/archive/2008/10/29/why-it-s-still-a-race.aspx |
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
ReeseDog
Joined: 05 Apr 2008
Location: Classified
|
| Posted: Wed Oct 29, 2008 2:33 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Yer right. It ain't over 'til it's over, and it ain't over yet (but I'm still outlining the "Ya-ta Boy-was-right" memo).  |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Kuros
Joined: 27 Apr 2004
|
| Posted: Wed Oct 29, 2008 3:06 pm Post subject: |
|
|
The Obama organization is phenomenal. Right now they are exporting Texans to battleground states.
In 2000 and 2004, it was the Republicans who had superior get-out-the-vote programs. Well, Barack Obama 2008's program looks to be the most sophisticated election campaign ever seen in American history.
Ya-Ta Boy, all those who haven't voted for various reasons the past eight years are coming out.
Reesedog, prepare yourself for a Republican ass-whooping. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
ReeseDog
Joined: 05 Apr 2008
Location: Classified
|
| Posted: Wed Oct 29, 2008 3:16 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| Kuros wrote: |
The Obama organization is phenomenal. Right now they are exporting Texans to battleground states.
In 2000 and 2004, it was the Republicans who had superior get-out-the-vote programs. Well, Barack Obama 2008's program looks to be the most sophisticated election campaign ever seen in American history.
Ya-Ta Boy, all those who haven't voted for various reasons the past eight years are coming out.
Reesedog, prepare yourself for a Republican ass-whooping. |
Those who haven't voted before are the college students (a.k.a. silly idealist but well-meaning kids who've never themselves had to pay for anything in their lives and will find out what they're in for with Obama in charge).
I don't think it'll be a whoopin'. I think it'll be fairly close, actually.
There's still hope for the right, though, however dim. It's not over yet. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Kuros
Joined: 27 Apr 2004
|
| Posted: Wed Oct 29, 2008 3:32 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| ReeseDog wrote: |
Those who haven't voted before are the college students (a.k.a. silly idealist but well-meaning kids who've never themselves had to pay for anything in their lives and will find out what they're in for with Obama in charge). |
Those who haven't voted also include the youthful indigent populations, mostly African-Americans. When Obama's organization registers 20 random African-Americans, they receive 19 votes and give away only 1.
| Quote: |
| I don't think it'll be a whoopin'. I think it'll be fairly close, actually. |
Only if you measure it by the popular vote tally, which doesn't really count. It'll be electoral domination by Obama. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
mnhnhyouh
Joined: 21 Nov 2006
Location: The Middle Kingdom
|
| Posted: Wed Oct 29, 2008 3:48 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Watch out for the Bradley Effect
| Quote: |
| , less commonly called the Wilder effect,[1][2] is a proposed explanation for observed discrepancies between voter opinion polls and election outcomes in some US government elections where a white candidate and a non-white candidate run against each other.[3][4][5] The effect refers to a supposed tendency on the part of some voters to tell pollsters that they are undecided or likely to vote for a black candidate, and yet, on election day, vote for his or her white opponent. It was named for Tom Bradley, an African-American who lost the 1982 California governor's race despite being ahead in voter polls going into the elections.[6] |
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_effect |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Kuros
Joined: 27 Apr 2004
|
| Posted: Wed Oct 29, 2008 3:59 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| mnhnhyouh wrote: |
Watch out for the Bradley Effect
| Quote: |
| , less commonly called the Wilder effect,[1][2] is a proposed explanation for observed discrepancies between voter opinion polls and election outcomes in some US government elections where a white candidate and a non-white candidate run against each other.[3][4][5] The effect refers to a supposed tendency on the part of some voters to tell pollsters that they are undecided or likely to vote for a black candidate, and yet, on election day, vote for his or her white opponent. It was named for Tom Bradley, an African-American who lost the 1982 California governor's race despite being ahead in voter polls going into the elections.[6] |
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_effect |
There is no Bradley Effect. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
pkang0202
Joined: 09 Mar 2007
|
| Posted: Wed Oct 29, 2008 4:00 pm Post subject: |
|
|
If McCain wins, I predict the Dems will cry "VOTER FRAUD!" and then demand recounts.
Typical Democrat strategy. If a Democrat wins, election is fair. If they lose, then they MUST have been cheated. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
VanIslander
Joined: 18 Aug 2003
Location: Geoje, Hadong, Tongyeong,... now in a small coastal island town outside Gyeongsangnamdo!
|
| Posted: Wed Oct 29, 2008 4:07 pm Post subject: |
|
|
It ain't over until the Diebold voting machines in swing states run by a renowned Republican supporter indicates the "results".
2000 and 2004 were the first national elections with the machines in use and they seemed to work "fine", except they didn't, and it was a minor news story. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
head-in-the-clouds
Joined: 14 Oct 2008
Location: London for now
|
| Posted: Wed Oct 29, 2008 4:46 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| VanIslander wrote: |
It ain't over until the Diebold voting machines in swing states run by a renowned Republican supporter indicates the "results".
2000 and 2004 were the first national elections with the machines in use and they seemed to work "fine", except they didn't, and it was a minor news story. |
...and faires dance around at the bottom of my garden... |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
VanIslander
Joined: 18 Aug 2003
Location: Geoje, Hadong, Tongyeong,... now in a small coastal island town outside Gyeongsangnamdo!
|
| Posted: Wed Oct 29, 2008 5:07 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| head-in-the-clouds wrote: |
| VanIslander wrote: |
It ain't over until the Diebold voting machines in swing states run by a renowned Republican supporter indicates the "results".
2000 and 2004 were the first national elections with the machines in use and they seemed to work "fine", except they didn't, and it was a minor news story. |
...and faires dance around at the bottom of my garden... |
are you ignorant of it or just an ostrich |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
head-in-the-clouds
Joined: 14 Oct 2008
Location: London for now
|
| Posted: Wed Oct 29, 2008 5:13 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| VanIslander wrote: |
| head-in-the-clouds wrote: |
| VanIslander wrote: |
It ain't over until the Diebold voting machines in swing states run by a renowned Republican supporter indicates the "results".
2000 and 2004 were the first national elections with the machines in use and they seemed to work "fine", except they didn't, and it was a minor news story. |
...and faires dance around at the bottom of my garden... |
are you ignorant of it or just an ostrich |
It's the same people who believe 9/11 was a conspiracy and Elvis lives, im tired of this bs. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
VanIslander
Joined: 18 Aug 2003
Location: Geoje, Hadong, Tongyeong,... now in a small coastal island town outside Gyeongsangnamdo!
|
| Posted: Wed Oct 29, 2008 5:38 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| head-in-the-clouds wrote: |
| It's the same people who believe 9/11 was a conspiracy and Elvis lives, im tired of this bs. |
equally lost on you and them is the difference between a FACT established and recognized by all factions and a THEORY purported by those who assemble and suggest things
Diebold voting machines are not fairies, nor is the political affiliations of its creator nor of the many reported security flaws inherent in the machines as they have been built. What those facts mean, now that is another matter,... but let's not confuse things |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
head-in-the-clouds
Joined: 14 Oct 2008
Location: London for now
|
| Posted: Wed Oct 29, 2008 5:43 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| VanIslander wrote: |
| head-in-the-clouds wrote: |
| It's the same people who believe 9/11 was a conspiracy and Elvis lives, im tired of this bs. |
equally lost on you and them is the difference between a FACT established and recognized by all factions and a THEORY purported by those who assemble and suggest things
Diebold voting machines are not fairies, nor is the political affiliations of its creator nor of the many reported security flaws inherent in the machines as they have been built. What those facts mean, now that is another matter,... but let's not confuse things |
Dont track back. You were suggesting the Republicans had something to do with it |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Joo Rip Gwa Rhhee
Joined: 25 May 2003
|
| Posted: Wed Oct 29, 2008 5:44 pm Post subject: |
|
|
One of Obama's strengths ironically is that he has no record. Bush didn' t have much of a record in 2000 either.
If he governs like Bill Clinton that won't hurt him.If has a governs like Jimmy Carter , especially on foreign policy 2012 will be payback time.
In 2012 Mr Obama will have a record.
2008 is very much like 2000 except that the world enviorment has changed for the worse whether or not it is Bush's policies are at fault doesn't really matter. The guy with the record is at a disadvantage.
In 2000 Al Gore was like McCain a candidate that had a good record but also a candidate that the other campaign could get stuff on. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
|
FAQ
Search
Memberlist
Usergroups
Register
Profile
Log in to check your private messages
Log in
