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Joo Rip Gwa Rhhee
Joined: 25 May 2003
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 Posted: Wed Oct 29, 2008 4:56 pm Post subject: Sleepless in Tehran |
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October 29, 2008
Op-Ed Columnist
Sleepless in Tehran
By THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN
I�ve always been dubious about Barack Obama�s offer to negotiate with Iran � not because I didn�t believe that it was the right strategy, but because I didn�t believe we had enough leverage to succeed. And negotiating in the Middle East without leverage is like playing baseball without a bat.
Well, if Obama does win the presidency, my gut tells me that he�s going to get a chance to negotiate with the Iranians � with a bat in his hand.
Have you seen the reports that Iran�s president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, is suffering from exhaustion? It�s probably because he is not sleeping at night. I know why. Watching oil prices fall from $147 a barrel to $57 is not like counting sheep. It�s the kind of thing that gives an Iranian autocrat bad dreams.
After all, it was the collapse of global oil prices in the early 1990s that brought down the Soviet Union. And Iran today is looking very Soviet to me.
As Vladimir Mau, president of Russia�s Academy of National Economy, pointed out to me, it was the long period of high oil prices followed by sharply lower oil prices that killed the Soviet Union. The spike in oil prices in the 1970s deluded the Kremlin into overextending subsidies at home and invading Afghanistan abroad � and then the collapse in prices in the �80s helped bring down that overextended empire.
(Incidentally, this was exactly what happened to the shah of Iran: 1) Sudden surge in oil prices. 2) Delusions of grandeur. 3) Sudden contraction of oil prices. 4) Dramatic downfall. 5) You�re toast.)
Under Ahmadinejad, Iran�s mullahs have gone on a domestic subsidy binge � using oil money to cushion the prices of food, gasoline, mortgages and to create jobs � to buy off the Iranian people. But the one thing Ahmadinejad couldn�t buy was real economic growth. Iran today has 30 percent inflation, 11 percent unemployment and huge underemployment with thousands of young college grads, engineers and architects selling pizzas and driving taxis. And now with oil prices falling, Iran � just like the Soviet Union � is going to have to pull back spending across the board. Fasten your seat belts.
The U.N. has imposed three rounds of sanctions against Iran since Ahmadinejad took office in 2005 because of Iran�s refusal to halt uranium enrichment. But high oil prices minimized those sanctions; collapsing oil prices will now magnify those sanctions. If prices stay low, there is a good chance Iran will be open to negotiating over its nuclear program with the next U.S. president.
That is a good thing because Iran also funds Hezbollah, Hamas, Syria and the anti-U.S. Shiites in Iraq. If America wants to get out of Iraq and leave behind a decent outcome, plus break the deadlocks in Lebanon and Israel-Palestine, it needs to end the cold war with Iran. Possible? I don�t know, but the collapse of oil prices should give us a shot.
But let�s use our leverage smartly and not exaggerate Iran�s strength. Just as I believe that we should drop the reward for the capture of Osama bin Laden � from $50 million to one penny, plus an autographed picture of Dick Cheney � we need to deflate the Iranian mullahs as well. Let them chase us.
Karim Sadjadpour, an Iran expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, compares it to bargaining for a Persian carpet in Tehran. �When you go inside the carpet shop, the first thing you are supposed to do is feign disinterest,� he explains. �The last thing you want to suggest is �We are not leaving without that carpet.� �Well,� the dealer will say, �if you feel so strongly about it ...� �
The other lesson from the carpet bazaar, says Sadjadpour, �is that there is never a price tag on any carpet. The dealer is not looking for a fixed price, but the highest price he can get � and the Iran price is constantly fluctuating depending on the price of oil.� Let�s now use that to our advantage.
Barack Hussein Obama would present another challenge for Iran�s mullahs. Their whole rationale for being is that they are resisting a hegemonic American power that wants to keep everyone down. Suddenly, next week, Iranians may look up and see that the country their leaders call �The Great Satan� has just elected �a guy whose middle name is the central figure in Shiite Islam � Hussein � and whose last name � Obama � when transliterated into Farsi, means �He is with us,� � said Sadjadpour.
Iran is ripe for deflating. Its power was inflated by the price of oil and the popularity of its leader, who was cheered simply because he was willing to poke America with a stick. But as a real nation-building enterprise, the Islamic Revolution in Iran has been an abject failure.
�When you ask young Arabs which leaders in the region they most admire,� said Sadjadpour, they will usually answer the leaders of Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran. �When you ask them where in the Middle East would you most like to live,� he added, �the answer is usually socially open places like Dubai or Beirut. The Islamic Republic of Iran is never in the top 10.� |
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/29/opinion/29friedman.html?_r=1&oref=slogin&ref=opinion&pagewanted=print |
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Jandar
Joined: 11 Jun 2008
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| Posted: Wed Oct 29, 2008 5:56 pm Post subject: |
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I don't know talking doesn't kill anyone.
You can always say no.
No is still talking. |
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yawarakaijin
Joined: 08 Aug 2006
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| Posted: Wed Oct 29, 2008 6:12 pm Post subject: |
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That article is a perfect example of why all your "Rods from God" rhetoric is unwarranted. Play Iran right and you can bring down the mullahs without firing a shot. Refrain from bombing and killing innocents and you just might find future generations of Iranians quite friendly to American interests.
I really hope Obama plays this correctly. Undoubtedly he will handle it better than McCain would.
Last edited by yawarakaijin on Wed Oct 29, 2008 6:59 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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head-in-the-clouds
Joined: 14 Oct 2008
Location: London for now
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| Posted: Wed Oct 29, 2008 6:14 pm Post subject: |
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I can't help thinking any of this diplomacy stuff with Iran is pie in the sky.
Iran are close to getting the bomb, fact. Israel will not let Iran get the
bomb, fact.
This issue will be over within a year when Israel takes care of business. |
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Joo Rip Gwa Rhhee
Joined: 25 May 2003
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| Posted: Wed Oct 29, 2008 7:06 pm Post subject: |
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| yawarakaijin wrote: |
That article is a perfect example of why all your "Rods from God" rhetoric is complete illogical. Play Iran right and you can bring down the mullahs without firing a shot. Refrain from bombing and killing innocents and you just might find future generations of Iranians quite friendly to American interests.
I really hope Obama plays this correctly. Undoubtedly he will handle it better than McCain would. |
When oil was 145 dollars a barrel Obamas' strategy was destined to fail. He outlined his strategy when oil prices were very high. That doesn't show that he has great ability to play the Iran situation well.
I am all in favor of alternative energy as much or more than anyone else on this board. What if it takes a long time? Then what?
It is a fair question.
Hopefully the US wouldn't need to bomb anyone- but that depends on Iran. Attacking Iran to steal Iran's oil would be immoral and I certainly would be against it. Trying to force one side to quit a war is very different that invading a country to steal its oil.
You play several different strategies, the more the US plays the more options it will have.
Talking when you have the upper hand works better than when you don't. |
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ReeseDog
Joined: 05 Apr 2008
Location: Classified
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| Posted: Wed Oct 29, 2008 7:32 pm Post subject: |
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| head-in-the-clouds wrote: |
I can't help thinking any of this diplomacy stuff with Iran is pie in the sky.
Iran are close to getting the bomb, fact. Israel will not let Iran get the
bomb, fact.
This issue will be over within a year when Israel takes care of business. |
That could be interesting... |
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bacasper
Joined: 26 Mar 2007
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| Posted: Wed Oct 29, 2008 7:35 pm Post subject: |
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| Jandar wrote: |
I don't know talking doesn't kill anyone.
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It can. Joo talks me to death. |
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ReeseDog
Joined: 05 Apr 2008
Location: Classified
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| Posted: Wed Oct 29, 2008 7:38 pm Post subject: |
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| bacasper wrote: |
| Jandar wrote: |
I don't know talking doesn't kill anyone.
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It can. Joo talks me to death. |
At least he makes good points. |
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Gopher
Joined: 04 Jun 2005
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| Posted: Wed Oct 29, 2008 7:49 pm Post subject: |
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| ...Iranians may look up and see that the country their leaders call "The Great Satan" has just elected "a guy whose middle name is the central figure in Shiite Islam -- Hussein -- and whose last name -- Obama -- when transliterated into Farsi, means 'He is with us,'" said Sadjadpour. |
Which is far better than how "Bob Dole" translated into Farsi, that is, if I correctly recall this issue as it appeared in 1996.  |
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Joo Rip Gwa Rhhee
Joined: 25 May 2003
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| Posted: Wed Oct 29, 2008 8:16 pm Post subject: |
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Alternative energy is better than Rods from god. But Rods from god is whole lot better than nothing.
Right now the US has got nothing. It doesn't have any meanful leverage for dealing with Iran.
W/o leverage talks won't work. |
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canuckistan
Mod Team
Joined: 17 Jun 2003
Location: Training future GS competitors.....
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| Posted: Wed Oct 29, 2008 8:18 pm Post subject: |
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| An overextended military and an economy in the crapper isn't much leverage at all. |
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Joo Rip Gwa Rhhee
Joined: 25 May 2003
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| Posted: Wed Oct 29, 2008 8:45 pm Post subject: |
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| canuckistan wrote: |
| An overextended military and an economy in the crapper isn't much leverage at all. |
No it isn't. But even if the situation were better the situation with Iran would still be very bad. Moreover what needs to be added is that 9-11 was the price the US paid for letting stuff go on in the mideast as long as it had.
A major cause of terror is that mideast regimes allow it to happen or even incite it as a tactic of war.
Now the picture is complete. |
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T-J
Joined: 10 Oct 2008
Location: Seoul EunpyungGu Yeonsinnae
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| Posted: Wed Oct 29, 2008 10:53 pm Post subject: |
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| The Israelis are watching the U.S. elections very closely. If Obama wins and it looks as if he will, Israel is not going to take their chances with a Democratic White House and will bomb Iran before January. |
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T-J
Joined: 10 Oct 2008
Location: Seoul EunpyungGu Yeonsinnae
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| Posted: Mon Nov 03, 2008 10:27 pm Post subject: |
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Bump*
Nobody is talking about this very unpleasant, but very real possibility. The Israelis have been ramping up for this over the past few months and it is going to really stir up the Middle East to say the least.
Israel will bomb Iran before Obama takes office. |
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thiophene
Joined: 15 Sep 2007
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| Posted: Tue Nov 04, 2008 12:14 am Post subject: |
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| T-J wrote: |
| The Israelis are watching the U.S. elections very closely. If Obama wins and it looks as if he will, Israel is not going to take their chances with a Democratic White House and will bomb Iran before January. |
shit...i plan to be in Iran before Jan...again Israel what a peaceful nation. |
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