Korean Job Discussion Forums

[Ya-ta Boy]

It's November 1. The election is 3 days away. It's time to get off the fence, stop dithering, and put some numbers down.

How will it turn out? (--assuming Bush doesn't cancel the whole thing at the last minute)

A. Percentage margin of victory

B. Number of electoral votes

C. Comments optional

[Ya-ta Boy]

The mass crowds coming out for Obama persuade me that he'll win by about 10% of the popular vote.

The Electoral College results will be around 375, possibly as high as 400.

Obama will be able to claim a mandate. So much of the last two weeks has been about smearing him with the socialist label that he will be able to hold a funeral service for Reaganism, if he's so inclined.

[Ya-ta Boy]

No one?

[Milwaukiedave]

I think it will be 54/46 roughly in terms of %, EV 364.

House 258/177

Senate 58/42 (including 2 I's)

[Kuros]

I also predict 364/174, barring a stray elector. 51/46 electoral vote.

[canuckistan]

I'm sticking with the numbers which a registered Republican computer network engineer estimates the Republicans will attempt to steal this election with in their usual ways:

51.2% of the popular vote, and three electoral votes.

http://www.wikio.co.uk/news/Stephen+Spoonamore

I figure it's easy to deliver the final blow. Just use Republican-controlled polling firms to put out bogus poll info to the media (because you know you're going to cheat), but especially in key states that can decide an election, and which also have almost a 100% Republican lock on the media--coincidentally like Ohio.
In those states the media is the most important to control because it will help deliver a (polls showed it folks!) "plausible" coup d'etat.

The voter suppression tactics and hackers will do the rest on Nov 4th.
The Republican-controlled Justice Dep't will take care of all the lawsuits afterwards (another key player in the game.)

I'm not sure what disgusts me more--that the big 3 "election systems" companies controlled by Evangelical Republicans who really believe their election frauds are "righteous" ones so it's criminally ok to do it, or that 'we the people' are too apathetic to learn from 2000/2004 and demand an open, transparent voting system in this country.

[Kikomom]

From what I've seen, 247 EVs are the most McCain will be able to muster. It looks as if the country is going to do the right thing.

[Ya-ta Boy]

kikomom,

What's your prediction?

[Kikomom]

Yata, On the bottom of my blog is a map I've been playing around with. If O takes the states he's ahead in now, and only one of the battlegrounds of VA, OH, NC, or FL, he's got it.

But my worse case scenario would be Obama 281, McCain 257. And that's being generous to McCain.

[Kikomom]

I haven't figured out how this works yet, but it looks pretty nifty:

LivPAC 2008 Election Scorecard

[Milwaukiedave]

Kiko,

That's a nice set up for keeping track of the races. I recieved a different one through Wednesday Wire that lays out the races that are going to likely be close.

[madoka]

Here in California, no one seems to care about the presidential election (possibly because Obama looks like a shoe-in to win the state). However, every city has a Proposition 8 (bans gay marriage) demonstration going on.

[Joo Rip Gwa Rhhee]

Popular vote

OB 51% - MC 47%

[Ya-ta Boy]

[Joo Rip Gwa Rhhee]

The election will be closer than many are saying.

See that McCain has tied it up in Missouri. It almost always goes with the winner. He has also closed the gap in FLA. Ohio is moving within the margin of error. We shall see.

51-47 Obama it might be even closer than that.