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Korean Won Survey

 
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What are the biggest causes for the won's depreciation?
Inappropriate government intervention
21%
 21%  [ 3 ]
The overall market
14%
 14%  [ 2 ]
Speculation by traders
14%
 14%  [ 2 ]
Foreign Investment support weakening
50%
 50%  [ 7 ]
Total Votes : 14

Author Message
brandonna



Joined: 30 Mar 2007

PostPosted: Wed Nov 12, 2008 1:31 am    Post subject: Korean Won Survey Reply with quote

Writing an article about the thoughts about the Korean won currently. If you are willing, please reply to the following 7 questions. I do need answers to 4 & 5 if you plan on being quoted. Ideally, answers to 6 would help too.

1. Do you believe the Won will stay at about 1300 won or so to the dollar for the rest of the year through 2009 or do you think it will get better?
2. Does the won rate affect your decision to stay in Korea? If so, can you elaborate on how it does or does not?
3. Why do you feel the won is affected more than other currencies in this current economic situation?
4. What is your name (first at least; last if possible) and occupation?
5. What is your age?
6. How long have you been in Korea?
7. How do you compare this current Korean situation with the one during the IMF crisis?

Any other thoughts welcome...
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seosan08



Joined: 10 Oct 2008
Location: Korea

PostPosted: Wed Nov 12, 2008 3:30 am    Post subject: Re: Korean Won Survey Reply with quote

1. Do you believe the Won will stay at about 1300 won or so to the dollar for the rest of the year through 2009 or do you think it will get better?

No, it's going to go far lower and the economy will sink very badly in 2009. It will start to come out sometime between 2010-11.

2. Does the won rate affect your decision to stay in Korea? If so, can you elaborate on how it does or does not?

Just like the last time, the won came back. The KOSPI bottomed out in Aug 1998, and slowly came back by 2000. I plan on buying gold until it goes over US $1000/oz. Then start looking to put my money in other things like cherry picked stocks or bonds while the price is cheap. I've been here for years and can't see spending US $10k to go home to a bad economy. I'll just wait it out.

3. Why do you feel the won is affected more than other currencies in this current economic situation?

In a nutshell because of the Yen carry trade (and US$ trade). People must cover losses and either buy Y or $ to pay them. It's now easy for people to pull money out of Korea now.

4. What is your name (first at least; last if possible) and occupation?

Seosan, teacher.

5. What is your age?

40-something.

6. How long have you been in Korea?

In and out since 1995. Have taught in several other countries as well.

7. How do you compare this current Korean situation with the one during the IMF crisis?

The IMF crisis was triggered by currency speculation, this one is FAR worse with toxic debt. No one really knows where the bad debt ends and the good debt starts. It's so complex, convoluted, widespread and massive it threatens not just the USA or Korea, but everyone.
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jvalmer



Joined: 06 Jun 2003

PostPosted: Wed Nov 12, 2008 4:45 am    Post subject: Re: Korean Won Survey Reply with quote

1. Do you believe the Won will stay at about 1300 won or so to the dollar for the rest of the year through 2009 or do you think it will get better?

Don't really care for the USD, just hope the won is around the 1000 range for the CDN.

2. Does the won rate affect your decision to stay in Korea? If so, can you elaborate on how it does or does not?

I'm just going to finish out my contract and go home, or not. Won's rate is no factor in my decision.

3. Why do you feel the won is affected more than other currencies in this current economic situation?

It's not a major currency and I think the Won has been over valued in the last 2 years.

4. What is your name (first at least; last if possible) and occupation?

jvalmer, teacher

5. What is your age?

early 30's

6. How long have you been in Korea?

5+ years

7. How do you compare this current Korean situation with the one during the IMF crisis?

Wasn't here for the last one, but it's not just Korea that's being hit. Every country will take a beating. The poor countries won't see much of a difference since they're already so poor. It's citizens in the rich ones that will feel the pain.
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ManintheMiddle



Joined: 20 Oct 2008

PostPosted: Wed Nov 12, 2008 6:47 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I pity you guys teaching in Korea; I got out just before the currency bubble burst this time around.

I haven't noticed an increase in salaries to adjust for this depreciation, however. While not surprising, it should give one cause to pause before signing a contract to come here.

I have no pity for Koreans as their xenophobia and double standard in trade has brought them to this point.

Maybe one day they will wake up and smell the coffee (preferably an imported brand).


Last edited by ManintheMiddle on Thu Nov 13, 2008 4:41 pm; edited 1 time in total
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FUBAR



Joined: 21 Oct 2003
Location: The Y.C.

PostPosted: Wed Nov 12, 2008 7:27 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

1. Do you believe the Won will stay at about 1300 won or so to the dollar for the rest of the year through 2009 or do you think it will get better?

I think it's going to get weaker as investors pull their money out of Korea, due to government intervention, an unfriendly climate climate for investors, and also deppreciating currency that will have effects on the country's ability to import products causing inflation and further weaking the dollar.

2. Does the won rate affect your decision to stay in Korea? If so, can you elaborate on how it does or does not?

Doesn't affect me because I'm married to a Korean. But it will affect how I invest in the Korean market.

3. Why do you feel the won is affected more than other currencies in this current economic situation?

See answer number one. But I can further elaborate by saying rather bluntly that the country's inept and self-serving politicians make it difficult for the recent Presidents/ rulling government to get anything accomplished.

4,5,6,
PM me

7. How do you compare this current Korean situation with the one during the IMF crisis?

Not really comparable since this is a global slowdown as compared to just a regional slowdown that hit Asian in the mid-90s. But there are parallels. I just hope the regional gov'ts can cooperate and use this opportunity to create some sort of plan to stabalize the currencies of the major players in Northern Asia (ie. China, South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, HK)

Sorry.. spelling and grammar might be alittle off. I typed this up just as I was heading to bed.
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