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Troll_Bait
Joined: 04 Jan 2006
Location: [T]eaching experience doesn't matter much. -Lee Young-chan (pictured)
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T-J
Joined: 10 Oct 2008
Location: Seoul EunpyungGu Yeonsinnae
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 Posted: Wed Nov 12, 2008 11:56 pm Post subject: |
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| Watch for it. It's coming faster than most are expecting. |
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caniff
Joined: 03 Feb 2004
Location: All over the map
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| Posted: Thu Nov 13, 2008 12:02 am Post subject: |
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I really hope the shit's not about to hit the fan. I guess it's not, but who the hell knows?
KJI is definitely ailing, otherwise they would have trotted his ass out into public for the world (and more importantly to them, the NKs) to see. |
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RACETRAITOR
Joined: 24 Oct 2005
Location: Seoul, South Korea
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| Posted: Thu Nov 13, 2008 12:35 am Post subject: |
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| This is almost definitely the best thing that can happen. |
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greekvvedge
Joined: 19 Jun 2007
Location: Apkujeong
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| Posted: Thu Nov 13, 2008 1:38 am Post subject: |
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| How many millions of starving NK's are going to be crossing the border if this happens? Maybe not a good thing for the economy right now. |
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blurgalurgalurga
Joined: 18 Oct 2007
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| Posted: Thu Nov 13, 2008 1:43 am Post subject: |
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The military up there has their own plans, no doubt...I bet there'll be some jockeying for position, and then probably a junta will start running the show. I bet there'll be no super-fast changes, but likely they'll go more the way of China and Vietnam over the next few years.
Hopefully. A rapid collapse would be a massive humanitarian disaster, and some mad c*nt army boss up there (or down here) might start a war out of spite or stupidity.
(hey, is that Mifune and Kurosawa in your avatar, greekvvedge?) |
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greekvvedge
Joined: 19 Jun 2007
Location: Apkujeong
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| Posted: Thu Nov 13, 2008 1:46 am Post subject: |
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| blurgalurgalurga wrote: |
The military up there has their own plans, no doubt...I bet there'll be some jockeying for position, and then probably a junta will start running the show. I bet there'll be no super-fast changes, but likely they'll go more the way of China and Vietnam over the next few years.
Hopefully. A rapid collapse would be a massive humanitarian disaster, and some mad c*nt army boss up there (or down here) might start a war out of spite or stupidity.
(hey, is that Mifune and Kurosawa in your avatar, greekvvedge?) |
no, but that would be cool,
its the writer yukio mishima with shintaro ishihara. good guess though. |
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Bryan
Joined: 29 Oct 2007
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| Posted: Thu Nov 13, 2008 2:36 am Post subject: |
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| greekvvedge wrote: |
| How many millions of starving NK's are going to be crossing the border if this happens? Maybe not a good thing for the economy right now. |
I guess you don't understand economics at all then.
Korea needs immigrant labourers. In fact, the front of the paper said they have the lowest fertility rate in the world right now.
What will happen if immigrant labourers come? The same as in the US, they will work for low wages which will cause businesses to save more money to reinvest in other areas. Businesses will be just as or more productive, with the same or less money. That extra money will allow them to expand or to spend. If they expand, they hire more employees. If they spend, they cause an indirect increase in productivity in other areas of the economy. |
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greekvvedge
Joined: 19 Jun 2007
Location: Apkujeong
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| Posted: Thu Nov 13, 2008 2:39 am Post subject: |
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| Bryan wrote: |
| greekvvedge wrote: |
| How many millions of starving NK's are going to be crossing the border if this happens? Maybe not a good thing for the economy right now. |
I guess you don't understand economics at all then.
Korea needs immigrant labourers. In fact, the front of the paper said they have the lowest fertility rate in the world right now.
What will happen if immigrant labourers come? The same as in the US, they will work for low wages which will cause businesses to save more money to reinvest in other areas. Businesses will be just as or more productive, with the same or less money. That extra money will allow them to expand or to spend. If they expand, they hire more employees. If they spend, they cause an indirect increase in productivity in other areas of the economy. |
you're right. im retarded. i have no idea what i'm talking about. with that attitude i would LOVE to be YOUR student.
and south korea can employ, at the drop of a hat, 10-15 million (minimum) unemployed north koreans? could west germany absorb all those east germans in a month?
think about it. |
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RACETRAITOR
Joined: 24 Oct 2005
Location: Seoul, South Korea
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| Posted: Thu Nov 13, 2008 2:41 am Post subject: |
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| greekvvedge wrote: |
| How many millions of starving NK's are going to be crossing the border if this happens? Maybe not a good thing for the economy right now. |
There are already tons crossing into China. If anything, the Chinese have more to worry about than us. |
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wylies99
Joined: 13 May 2006
Location: I'm one cool cat!
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| Posted: Thu Nov 13, 2008 2:42 am Post subject: |
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North Koreans have no educations, they have major health issues, and the land has been destroyed through bad harvests and 100% military spending. Oh, and they WORSHIP a military dictator.
The Chinese and Russians should be forced to pay ALL of the money for the recovery and rebuilding of North Korea because it's their fault for backing two dictators who ruined everything. |
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jvalmer
Joined: 06 Jun 2003
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| Posted: Thu Nov 13, 2008 2:47 am Post subject: |
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| RACETRAITOR wrote: |
| greekvvedge wrote: |
| How many millions of starving NK's are going to be crossing the border if this happens? Maybe not a good thing for the economy right now. |
There are already tons crossing into China. If anything, the Chinese have more to worry about than us. |
If NKers had a straight route to Seoul, that's were most of them will be heading. Why go into China when you can't speak Chinese, when Seoul would be right there and where people can speak the same language. Unless they actually believe all the propaganda and really think South Koreans are poorer than them. |
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pkang0202
Joined: 09 Mar 2007
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| Posted: Thu Nov 13, 2008 3:32 am Post subject: |
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SK could make a killing turning Pyongyang and Kaesong into a "Tourist Resort". People all over the world would want to come to North Korea to experience what all the mystery was about.
Anyways, on the realistic side,
If the North did Collapse, China would be in there faster than anyone. It wouldn't surprise me at all if China moved in with military force. And once Chinese troops are in place around North Korea, it will be impossible to get them to leave via diplomatic means.
Japan can't do anything with their Self Defense force, and I seriously doubt South Korea would take any decisive action. A Chinese occupied North Korea would be a lot easier to deal with than the current KimJongIl regime.
North Korean refugees into China is a big problem, so China will gradually ease relations between the North and the South. Most likely letting North Koreans enter South Korea, but preventing South Koreans from going to the North.
The US won't be able to focus any attention on the matter either. Iraq War, and the new renewed focus on Afghanistan once Obama takes office. Also, with a transitioning government, it will take a while before the US can take any serious action.
China will do to North Korea what Russia did to Georgia. "The West" will denounce it but won't do anything to aggravate the Chinese. Russia would back the Chinese occupation of North Korea. |
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Captain Corea
Joined: 28 Feb 2005
Location: Seoul
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| Posted: Thu Nov 13, 2008 3:37 am Post subject: |
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| pkang0202 wrote: |
| If the North did Collapse, China would be in there faster than anyone. It wouldn't surprise me at all if China moved in with military force. And once Chinese troops are in place around North Korea, it will be impossible to get them to leave via diplomatic means. |
Agreed.
The only thing that could stave that off is to have a patriotic North Korean lead the DPRK through a powershift.
Many North kOreans are worried about China's influence in the region. And if they were able to see the wind blow in that direction, they just might push back. |
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blurgalurgalurga
Joined: 18 Oct 2007
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| Posted: Thu Nov 13, 2008 3:51 am Post subject: |
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| greekvvedge wrote: |
| blurgalurgalurga wrote: |
(hey, is that Mifune and Kurosawa in your avatar, greekvvedge?) |
no, but that would be cool,
its the writer yukio mishima with shintaro ishihara. good guess though. |
Oh, right...I thought I recognized Eyebrow Bro from somewhere...thought it was a shaved Mifune.
I agree that China would probably take matters into their own hands if the DPRK regime fails. They'd no doubt prefer to border a weakened flunky state, even a severly brain damaged and unstable one like North Korea, than be bordered by a what they see as a US patron state, like this one.
They don't probably want that, though. Pretty sure China's got enough cheap unskilled labour as it is. Likely they'd seek to stabilize/ dominate a shattered Nork state simply because it'd be preferable to the alternative.
But who knows? The Koreans are a feisty bunch, north and south alike, and they might not let the chance to become a country of 80 million people slip away...even if it meant compromising their own specific political agendas, and finding something like a middle ground. Like, the south basically assimilates the north, bribes off their elites, and says to the rest 'ok, you crazy Kim-lovers can have freedom of religion and worship Il-Sung in your house, but you're capitalist now so shut up and buy this Hyundai. Buy this TV. Here, have some Pepero.' And the northern ones would be stoked on the TV and the car and the snacks and go to work in the lousy jobs they have Phillipinos doing now, and send their kids to Hagwons. Yay! Happy endings all around. |
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