Korean Job Discussion Forums

[Milwaukiedave]

Begich now up by 814

[Milwaukiedave]

Meanwhile in Minnesota....

Coleman leads Franken by 206 votes
By PATRICIA LOPEZ and KEVIN DUCHSCHERE, Star Tribune staff writers

November 11, 2008

The Coleman and Franken campaigns traded shots Monday as counties completed the process of certifying their vote tallies and officials prepared to start recounting nearly 3 million ballots in the U.S. Senate race.

Six days after the election, unofficial results showed Republican Sen. Norm Coleman leading Democratic challenger Al Franken by 206 votes, a difference of about 1/100th of 1 percent that sets the stage for the automatic hand recount that will begin next week.

Monday was the deadline for counties to certify their results. Depending on the unknown number that may not have yet reported them to the state, that 206 figure could still change before the state Canvassing Board meets next week to certify the official total. Only then will the recount begin.

Officials with Hennepin County forwarded their tally Monday to the secretary of state's office, showing that, since initial results Wednesday, Franken's total had increased by 55 votes and Coleman's by 27 in the state's largest county.

Adjustments in the vote tallies because of misplaced figures and other errors have been limited to 22 of the state's 87 counties, according to an analysis of the fluctuations from Wednesday to Monday.

Since the preliminary Election Day numbers, Franken's biggest gains were in Lake County, where he added 246 votes, and in Pine and St. Louis counties, where he picked up 100 in each.

Coleman's biggest gain was in Ramsey County, 29 votes, but that was more than canceled out by an additional 41 votes there for Franken. Coleman's biggest drop was 124 votes in Anoka County, where Franken also lost 90 votes.

Meanwhile, both campaigns spent much of the day fencing over exactly how to secure the ballots that will be recounted and possibly laying the groundwork for further legal challenges.

Both campaigns have laid out detailed plans that would seek to preserve nearly every scrap of paper related to the election, including unused ballots, spoiled ballots, voter registration cards, voting machine tapes and even preelection tests of the optical scanners used to count votes.

Over the weekend, Coleman campaign attorney Fritz Knaak suggested that both campaigns adopt a precise list of procedures handed down Saturday by a Stearns County district judge. They include requiring that ballots remain at all times under lock and key in a room that can be entered only by two or more members of the auditor's staff and keeping a detailed log of those entering the room.

David Lillehaug, attorney for the Franken campaign, on Monday said the Stearns County rules -- which Gov. Tim Pawlenty said he also favors -- are too specific to be applied statewide. He added that the Franken camp wants broad preservation of election materials.

At the meeting Monday of Hennepin County's canvassing board, Lillehaug said the campaign knew of 461 Minneapolis voters whose absentee ballots had been unfairly rejected. People who were registered were told they weren't, and signatures were rejected that matched registration cards, he said.

Dan Rogan of the Hennepin County attorney's office said it was up to the state board to determine whether errors were made. The board turned down Lillehaug's request to reconsider the disputed ballots.

One dispute resolved

On Saturday, the Coleman campaign had asked for an injunction to stop the counting of 32 absentee ballots in Minneapolis that had not been delivered on Election Day. A judge declined to grant the injunction, and Knaak said Monday that "we've heard enough from the city attorney to let go of this. It does not appear that there was any ballot-tampering, and that was our concern."

Minneapolis city election officials said the 32 ballots were never "missing" and were delivered after Election Day.

Knaak said that with certified totals in, the campaign is now focused on the recount process.

Earlier Monday, Pawlenty had waded into the fracas, commenting on the 32 absentee ballots and saying he was concerned about "strange things happening in the context of this recount." He urged state election officials to "lock down" ballots as quickly as possible.

http://www.startribune.com/politics/national/senate/34200229.html?elr=KArks8c7PaP3E77K_3c::D3aDhUxWoW_oD:EaDUiacyKUnciaec8O7EyU

[Milwaukiedave]

Is 60 back in play?
By: Glenn Thrush and Josh Kraushaar
November 13, 2008 10:24 PM EST

The dream of 60 Senate seats simply refuses to die � with positive signs suddenly popping up for Democrats in all three unresolved races.

Around 1 a.m. EST, news that Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich has inched ahead of Alaska Republican Sen. Ted Stevens rekindled flagging Democratic hopes they would reach the mythical filibuster-proof majority.

In Minnesota, Al Franken has steadily eroded incumbent Republican Norm Coleman�s lead before the recount has even begun � with a highly contentious recount on the way.

And in Georgia, a poll released Thursday shows Democrat Jim Martin within striking distance of Sen. Saxby Chambliss in a surprisingly close runoff scheduled for Dec. 2.

If Democrats sweep those three races, they�ll hit 60. At the moment they are stuck on 57 � a respectable six-seat pick-up for 2008.

But a three-seat sweep, which seemed impossible 24 hours ago, now seems merely improbable.

�A day ago, the coroner was ready to sign the death certificate on 60 � and now it�s back on life support,� says Jennifer Duffy, Senate analyst with the non-partisan Cook Political Report.

For starters, Begich would have to maintain his lead over Stevens � and widen it to 1,500 votes if he wants to avoid a recount. Franken�s recount would have to continue trending his way, and Martin will have to hope that Georgia turnout for a runoff is strong enough to guide him to an improbable victory in a state John McCain won by 5 points.

�Will we get 60 seats? Well, I have the same answer today that I had the day before the election. It�s possible, but unlikely,� said Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Charles Schumer, meeting with reporters Thursday.

In a frantic bid to fend off the unthinkable, the GOP is ratcheting up the rhetoric seeking to energize donors and voters sapped by John McCain�s decisive loss.

�At this point all that stands between an unchecked, liberal, Democrat tyranny in Washington are two yet to be determined races and a run-off in Georgia,� said John Randall, spokesman for the National Republican Senatorial Committee.

�Both parties are training their sights on the conservative Peach State,� Randall added. �The prospect of sixty seats is still very much real, not to mention frightening, and the remaining firewall could very well be Sen. Chambliss.�

Schumer announced Thursday the campaign committee will launch its first advertisement in the Georgia Senate runoff � a cable spot worth about $100,000. A newly released poll from Research 2000 shows Chambliss narrowly leading Martin in the runoff, 49 to 46 percent.

�Jim Martin has come out of the gate swinging with the right message, that you can either vote for a senator who will work with Barack Obama to change the direction of the country, or one who will obstruct change in every step of the way," Schumer added. "We're committed to this race 100 percent."

In Minnesota, where only 206 votes separate Sen. Norm Coleman (R-Minn.) and Democrat Al Franken, Schumer accused �the hard-right wing� of America for trying to obstruct the recount process.

He also accused conservatives of unfairly criticizing the recanvassing process in Minnesota, where Al Franken netted about 500 votes from his immediate post-election total � mostly over precinct tabulating errors.

In a related development, Franken attorney Marc Elias announced he was suing to force state elections officials to explain why they had rejected some absentee ballots.

Begich has rallied after entering the Alaska count about 3,000 in the hole, edging ahead of Stevens by 814 as of Wednesday night.

The Begich campaign said the Anchorage mayor was �cautiously optimistic� about winning with about 40,000 ballots remaining because many of the votes already counted came from conservative parts of the state.

�More than 59,000 ballots were counted yesterday,� Bethany Lesser, spokeswoman for the Alaska Democratic Party, wrote in an e-mail. �Of the districts not counted on Wednesday, Begich won all of them on Election Day (for full disclosure, these are regions that have smaller populations).�

http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=983D93EC-18FE-70B2-A89D0F465218955B

[Milwaukiedave]

Is 60 back in play?
By: Glenn Thrush and Josh Kraushaar
November 13, 2008 10:24 PM EST

The dream of 60 Senate seats simply refuses to die � with positive signs suddenly popping up for Democrats in all three unresolved races.

Around 1 a.m. EST, news that Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich has inched ahead of Alaska Republican Sen. Ted Stevens rekindled flagging Democratic hopes they would reach the mythical filibuster-proof majority.

In Minnesota, Al Franken has steadily eroded incumbent Republican Norm Coleman�s lead before the recount has even begun � with a highly contentious recount on the way.

And in Georgia, a poll released Thursday shows Democrat Jim Martin within striking distance of Sen. Saxby Chambliss in a surprisingly close runoff scheduled for Dec. 2.

If Democrats sweep those three races, they�ll hit 60. At the moment they are stuck on 57 � a respectable six-seat pick-up for 2008.

But a three-seat sweep, which seemed impossible 24 hours ago, now seems merely improbable.

�A day ago, the coroner was ready to sign the death certificate on 60 � and now it�s back on life support,� says Jennifer Duffy, Senate analyst with the non-partisan Cook Political Report.

For starters, Begich would have to maintain his lead over Stevens � and widen it to 1,500 votes if he wants to avoid a recount. Franken�s recount would have to continue trending his way, and Martin will have to hope that Georgia turnout for a runoff is strong enough to guide him to an improbable victory in a state John McCain won by 5 points.

�Will we get 60 seats? Well, I have the same answer today that I had the day before the election. It�s possible, but unlikely,� said Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Charles Schumer, meeting with reporters Thursday.

In a frantic bid to fend off the unthinkable, the GOP is ratcheting up the rhetoric seeking to energize donors and voters sapped by John McCain�s decisive loss.

�At this point all that stands between an unchecked, liberal, Democrat tyranny in Washington are two yet to be determined races and a run-off in Georgia,� said John Randall, spokesman for the National Republican Senatorial Committee.

�Both parties are training their sights on the conservative Peach State,� Randall added. �The prospect of sixty seats is still very much real, not to mention frightening, and the remaining firewall could very well be Sen. Chambliss.�

Schumer announced Thursday the campaign committee will launch its first advertisement in the Georgia Senate runoff � a cable spot worth about $100,000. A newly released poll from Research 2000 shows Chambliss narrowly leading Martin in the runoff, 49 to 46 percent.

�Jim Martin has come out of the gate swinging with the right message, that you can either vote for a senator who will work with Barack Obama to change the direction of the country, or one who will obstruct change in every step of the way," Schumer added. "We're committed to this race 100 percent."

In Minnesota, where only 206 votes separate Sen. Norm Coleman (R-Minn.) and Democrat Al Franken, Schumer accused �the hard-right wing� of America for trying to obstruct the recount process.

He also accused conservatives of unfairly criticizing the recanvassing process in Minnesota, where Al Franken netted about 500 votes from his immediate post-election total � mostly over precinct tabulating errors.

In a related development, Franken attorney Marc Elias announced he was suing to force state elections officials to explain why they had rejected some absentee ballots.

Begich has rallied after entering the Alaska count about 3,000 in the hole, edging ahead of Stevens by 814 as of Wednesday night.

The Begich campaign said the Anchorage mayor was �cautiously optimistic� about winning with about 40,000 ballots remaining because many of the votes already counted came from conservative parts of the state.

�More than 59,000 ballots were counted yesterday,� Bethany Lesser, spokeswoman for the Alaska Democratic Party, wrote in an e-mail. �Of the districts not counted on Wednesday, Begich won all of them on Election Day (for full disclosure, these are regions that have smaller populations).�

http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=983D93EC-18FE-70B2-A89D0F465218955B

[Gatsby]

58?

[Milwaukiedave]

I was just coming to post that. The cut off for the automatic recount is 1,500. If Begich is up by 1,500 ore more, then Stevens has to come up with the money to pay for it. If things continue to trend the way they have, it looks like he could surpass that number.

[Milwaukiedave]

Dartmouth Study: Minnesota Undervotes Should Favor Franken
Dartmouth professors Michael Herron, Jonathan Chipman and Jeffrey

Lewis have put together a terrific study of the recount situation in Minnesota. They suggest that -- while many African-American voters in the Minneapolis area may have skipped the senate race intentionally -- the majority of unintentional undervotes that will be counted during the recount process are also liable to favor Franken.

We show using a combination of precinct voting returns from the 2006 and 2008 General Elections that patterns in Senate race residual votes are consistent with, one, the presence of a large number of Democratic-leaning voters, in particular African-American voters, who appear to have deliberately skipped voting in the Coleman-Franken Senate contest and, two, the presence of a smaller number of Democratic-leaning voters who almost certainly intended to cast a vote in the Senate race but for some reason did not do so. Ultimately, the anticipated recount may clarify the relative proportions of intentional versus unintentional residual votes. At present, though, the data available suggest that the recount will uncover many of the former and that, of the latter, a majority will likely prove to be supportive of Franken.

The Darmouth guys don't offer a specific prediction about whether the number of recounted votes is likely to tip the balance of the race toward Franken, but their entire study (PDF File) is worth a read.

[Gatsby]

[Milwaukiedave]

It doesn't look good for Stevens. If the margin is more then 1600 (I had said 1500 before, but it changed) or 1/2 of a percent then Stevens will have to pay for the recount.

There hasn't been much said about the Minnesota race lately. They are suppose to start recounting soon.

[Milwaukiedave]

According to 538.com Begich will win Alaska.

Democrats will have 58/40 majority with 2 races undecided.

Begich Will Be Alaska's First U.S. Senate Democrat Since Gravel
Democrat Mark Begich will win the Alaska Senate race.

With 14,626 of the roughly 24,000 ballots left to count today, Begich's lead over Republican Ted Stevens is now, 2,374. The remaining results are expected to arrive later this afternoon. Stevens would have to win by a margin of over 25% of the outstanding ballots to tie Begich.

That would require something of a Gravelanche.

Currently, Begich leads by 0.77%, which is outside the free 0.5% recount zone. The recount fee is a paltry $15,000, not a sum Stevens has ever had trouble acquiring via one means or another. Given his likely expulsion by either the Republican caucus or the U.S. Senate as a whole (though we are in "reconciliation" mode, so who knows?), it seems unlikely anyone besides Stevens himself would have the desire to pursue such action. Still, the Anchorage Daily News calls such a recount "likely."

Congratulations, Senator Begich.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/begich-will-be-alaskas-first-us-senate.html

[Gatsby]

Now it's over.

[Milwaukiedave]

All the major networks have called it as well:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27789536/

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2008/11/18/stevens-loses-reelection-bid/

[Kuros]

Seven felony convictions? Too bad for Ted. If he had only had six, he might still be a Senator today!

[Gatsby]

[Milwaukiedave]

Update on the Minnesota Senate race:

Coleman 1,211,504
Franken 1,211,330

About 15.5% of all the ballots have been recounted and Franken has netted 43 votes.


221 votes stand as challanged votes and are not included in the vote totals.


http://ww2.startribune.com/news/metro/elections/returns/2008/recount/msenco.html