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Why cant the K Govt. peg the won to the dollar?

 
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afsjesse



Joined: 23 Sep 2007
Location: Kickin' it in 'Kato town.

PostPosted: Wed Nov 19, 2008 5:04 pm    Post subject: Why cant the K Govt. peg the won to the dollar? Reply with quote

Stupid question I know... but for you amateur economists maybe you have an answer.

In 2001 I studied abroad in Argentina. At that time 1 Peso got you 1 USD. The Argentine government pegged it somehow.. I dont know how it worked. Of course shortly later the eoncomy collapsed and things went into panic mode for awhile. Today it is doing much better with 3 pesos to 1 dollar respectively.
Argentina pegged its currency for almost a decade I believe and I dont know if this led to the collapse or not.
So, if an advanced but still third world country can peg its currency, why can;t Korea with all of its foreign reserves do the same? Whats the explanation for this, pros and cons?

Take your shot!
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afsjesse



Joined: 23 Sep 2007
Location: Kickin' it in 'Kato town.

PostPosted: Wed Nov 19, 2008 5:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Or how about just raising it to a modest level of 1200-1300? If the government is in support of a strong won, it would seem alot better to do something like this than to waste all those billions of dollars stimulating the economy and floating banks.

In fact now that I think of it, Hong Kong has its currency tied to the USD....
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jvalmer



Joined: 06 Jun 2003

PostPosted: Wed Nov 19, 2008 5:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The won was once pegged to the USD. One of the usual conditions to get an IMF loan is to remove any fixed currency exchange rates. Korea got a 50 billion USD bailout way back in 1997. Not sure exactly when the peg was removed though.
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poet13



Joined: 22 Jan 2006
Location: Just over there....throwing lemons.

PostPosted: Wed Nov 19, 2008 6:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yes, please reset it to 50 won= 1 dollar.
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mayorgc



Joined: 19 Oct 2008

PostPosted: Wed Nov 19, 2008 7:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

i did my BA in economics

i'm no expert, but, pegging your currency to the dollar is usually quite difficult and it opens up your domestic investments to attack by outside forces. it causes a lot of strain on the national bank to keep things sane. ie. interest rates and inflation rates.

there's a whole sh!tload of details that i could get into, but i already graduated and i'm not keen on opening up my notes again.

basically, it causes more grief than it does good. I know china pegs to the u.s. but i think they get away with it because of their govt structure (i'm actually not sure, someone will have to clarify)
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weatherman



Joined: 14 Jan 2003
Location: Korea

PostPosted: Wed Nov 19, 2008 8:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

jvalmer wrote:
The won was once pegged to the USD. One of the usual conditions to get an IMF loan is to remove any fixed currency exchange rates. Korea got a 50 billion USD bailout way back in 1997. Not sure exactly when the peg was removed though.


If there was a peg, it was dropped long before 1997.
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wanderingross



Joined: 13 Oct 2008
Location: Incheon

PostPosted: Wed Nov 19, 2008 9:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

From what I can remember a currency is pegged by the governemnt using its foreign currency reserves to moderate the exchange rates by buying and selling its own currency in tandom with market demand.

That's one of the reasons that China holds so much American debt (T-bills) that they can cash in to hold their currency (I think...).

Korea is attempting to moderate their rates a bit, but to do so completely would not only exhaust their (smaller) reserves it would also draw major heat from free trade organizations and proponents around the world.
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bogey666



Joined: 17 Mar 2008
Location: Korea, the ass free zone

PostPosted: Wed Nov 19, 2008 10:27 pm    Post subject: Re: Why cant the K Govt. peg the won to the dollar? Reply with quote

afsjesse wrote:
Stupid question I know... but for you amateur economists maybe you have an answer.

In 2001 I studied abroad in Argentina. At that time 1 Peso got you 1 USD. The Argentine government pegged it somehow.. I dont know how it worked. Of course shortly later the eoncomy collapsed and things went into panic mode for awhile. Today it is doing much better with 3 pesos to 1 dollar respectively.
Argentina pegged its currency for almost a decade I believe and I dont know if this led to the collapse or not.
So, if an advanced but still third world country can peg its currency, why can;t Korea with all of its foreign reserves do the same? Whats the explanation for this, pros and cons?

Take your shot!


the collapse of Argentina was VERY much tied into its dollar equivalent currency board. Planes used to be full of Argentines flying to Miami to shop on the weekends.

They were spending money they didn't have, and ultimately the govt deficits added up and the chickens came home to roost.

very difficult to peg your corrency to something that isn't yours.
You can't print it.. you can't control it.. and you have no role to play with critical levers like interest rate policy.

sometimes a peg can be great, but with the good comes the bad, in other times it can awful.

good example would be Ireland's adoption of the euro and entry into EU.
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call_the_shots



Joined: 10 Oct 2008

PostPosted: Wed Nov 19, 2008 10:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I remember very little from Macroeconomics class, but I do recall a concept called the "Impossible Trinity" (also known as the Unholy Trinity, the Trilemma, and maybe a few other names). The Impossible Trinity is about three conditions:

1) Fixed exchange rate
2) Free flow of capital across borders
3) Independent monetary policy.

A country can choose two out of three, but it's impossible to have all three. So if Korea wants to change to a fixed exchange rate, they must either give up having an independent monetary policy (which means losing the ability to adjust interest rates to fight inflation or recession), or they must restrict capital mobility (like China).
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