Korean Job Discussion Forums

[wylies99]

Give It Up Or I'll Shoot Myself
http://www.strategypage.com/qnd/korea/articles/20081213.aspx
December 13, 2008: As U.S. troop strength in South Korea continues to shrink, more South Koreans are getting nervous. Many South Koreans don't really believe the better trained, led and equipped South Korean forces can defeat another invasion from the north. The American troops have been around for over half a century, and the U.S. has always said it would stand by its South Korean ally. But the numbers tell a different tale.

At the end of the Korean War, in 1953, there were over 350,000 U.S. troops in South Korea. Within a year, that shrank to 223,000, and by 1955 it was only 85,000. By the mid-60s it was 63,000. By the mid 70's there were only 42,000. There it stayed for over two decades. Then came the September 11, 2001 and the war on terror. By 2004 the U.S. force in South Korea was down to 37,000. In 2006 that dropped to 30,000 and this year will go to 28,000, as a AH-64 helicopter gunship battalion leaves. There is fear that the new U.S. president will cut the American force in South Korea to token (a few thousand troops) size. Meanwhile, more Americans are getting quite vocal about the need for any U.S. troops in South Korea at all. Enough is enough, and over half a century of paying to supply South Korea with a protective garrison should come to an end.

North Korea continues its diplomatic policy of demanding gifts, and threatening to hurt itself if the gifts do not arrive. This absurd approach to negotiations has become more common since the great famine, and economic collapse (because of the withdrawal of Cold War era Russian subsidies) of the 1990s. The "give me your wallet or I'll shoot myself" approach has lost its shock value and is not just seen as bizarre and unproductive. So it was with dismay that South Koreans watched the north shut down the year old rail link between the north and south. The north now threatens to shut down a South Korean industrial park in the north, where 35,000 North Korean workers earn, by northern standards, excellent wages ($70 a month).

North Korea refuses to allow verification that it has dismantled its nuclear weapons program. In response, the five countries (U.S., South Korea, China, Russia, Japan) involved in the six way talks, have halted most food and energy shipments. Without that food and oil, over a third of the North Korean population faces starvation. North Korea does not express any alarm over this. The food donors are insisting on monitoring food distribution, because they have ample evidence that earlier shipments were sent to military stockpiles, or to China (to be sold). The donors don't want to starve North Koreans, but see no point sending food north if it is not going to feed the starving. North Korea refuses to allow food monitors or nuclear weapons inspectors, and threatens to hurt itself more if the donor nations continue making threats..

North Korean leader Kim Jong Il continues to make public appearances, that no one can verify. There are still enough foreigners in the north to get questions asked and attempt to find witnesses to these Kim Jong Il public appearances. No credible witnesses can be found. Apparently Kim Jong Il is still not well, but his staff feels pressured to pretend otherwise.

South Korea recently received the first 24 of 48 second hand Patriot anti-aircraft missile launchers, along with radars, missile reloads and support equipment. These systems were bought from Germany, which is still getting rid of Cold War era armaments it no longer needs. The vast Russian and East German air forces the Patriots were originally purchased to deal with, no longer exist. The North Korean Air Force is not that big, and mostly grounded for lack of fuel. South Korea bought the German Patriots to deal with North Korean ballistic missiles.

The North Korean leadership is increasingly threatened by a cultural invasion from the south. In comes in many forms; leaflets carried by balloons, illegal cell phones smuggled in from China and, worst of all, a growing number of South Korean TV shows, especially soap operas and other dramas that casually reveal the much higher living standards in the south, and a half century of social change, in the south. This is changing attitudes among North Korean women, who are still treated like property (because North Korea has had no social change, and treats women according to centuries old customs). Communism talks about "liberating women," but largely fails to deliver on that promise, especially in North Korea.

Desperate measures are being taken to try and stop this invasion. Special police units prowl the Chinese border, equipped with expensive German cell phone signal detectors, seizing illegal phones and sending their owners to labor camps. Smugglers make big money sneaking videos of South Korean TV shows and movies. This is impossible to stop, because you can put lots of this stuff on a tiny flash memory drive. This digital media is then copied endlessly, and viewed eagerly. There's not much entertainment in the north, and the South Korea video fare is very welcome. Meanwhile, in a desperate attempt to stop the balloons, North Korea ordered pro-North Korean political groups in the south to use physical force. This stopped about ten percent of a recent batch of leaflets being released to drift north, and got some of the pro-democracy leaflet people sent to the hospital. But it got a lot of the pro-North Korean thugs arrested, and was not the kind of PR the north wanted.

[wylies99]

[caniff]

China is being forced to open up largely because of the internet. NK has been better at shutting that down, but it's just a matter of time as their borders (mostly the northern one) grow more porous.

Anyway, China will be taking over NK when the regime eventually falls (its looking to be on shaky legs at this point). Neither SK, Washington, or anyone else will step in to stop that (why would you want to inherit that f'ed up basketcase?).

[wylies99]

[VanIslander]

As long as ONE American soldier is standing along the DMZ on behalf of the U.S. military that's as significant as ten thousand in terms of a SK-US alliance to protect the south.

[Gillian57]

This is a stark analysis as to why the USFK needs to get out of S Korea. This is not a US problem, it is an Asia problem. The people in N Korea have been brainwashed into believing that the US is their mortal enemy. Should the proverbial doggy-doo hit the fan, the Yanks need to be far, far away.....

[Gimpokid]

[aka Dave]

North Korea's leadership is aware that invading the South is suicide. Whether they're psychotic enough to do it is a difficult question to answer. From the point of view of U.S. national security, however, nuclear proliferation from the North is probably far more threatening than an invasion.

[Passions]

Maybe when South Koreans stop releasing subtle anti-American movies like The Host and Sunny will they get a clue.

USFK is no longer necessary in Korea. Let them protect themselves like they so eagerly thumped their chests for.

[moosehead]

[jvalmer]

Don't know why a lot of people always think China is going to assimilate Korea. They've had a couple thousand years to do it, and have tried, and have yet to succeed.

[sojusucks]

jvalmer wrote:

[caniff]

[wylies99]

Does China want to pay the cost of bringing NK "up to code", so to speak?
Hopefully LMB is shrewd enough to let China pay for the mess they created.


Also, is anyone certain that NK troops won't fire on the Chinese? They are SO BRAINWASHED that it's anyone's guess.

[Gillian57]

China and NK have a Mutual Defense Agreement. Should things become out of control in the North, China can use that to move in. China also have a relatively strong political party in the North. When the time comes, China will simply put their pupet in place, allow North Korea to continue, for the time being, to call itself a sovereign nation (much like it does for Tibet and Taiwan) all the while working to assimulate it.

China currently hold the rights to the major mineral mines and the seaports and railways in the North. South Korea would not have control over those even if the two Koreas did unify.

That's why people are saying that China will take over North Korea.