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Why can't meteorologists forecast the weather?

 
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xCustomx



Joined: 06 Jan 2006

PostPosted: Mon Dec 22, 2008 5:35 am    Post subject: Why can't meteorologists forecast the weather? Reply with quote

A few days ago, meteorologists predicted that it would snow about 3-9cm on Sunday night. There wasn't any snow of course.

Then, they predicted it would be clear and sunny for the next week. It's been snowing for the last couple of hours now in Bundang.

I'm not complaining about just today, but aren't Korean meteorologists way off when it comes to predicting the weather? I thought that the general public had launched a complaint last year or in 2006 due to their inability to make accurate predictions.
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pkang0202



Joined: 09 Mar 2007

PostPosted: Mon Dec 22, 2008 5:41 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Weathermen anywhere can't predict snow.

Back home in Richmond, it was real bad. They would forecast snow, no snow would come, and they made elaborate excuses like:

It did snow, it just evaporated before it hit the ground.

The snow turned into Rain in the upper atmosphere.

The heat from the city melted the snow into rain.


If it snows, it snows. Don't trust the weather forecasters.
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samd



Joined: 03 Jan 2007

PostPosted: Mon Dec 22, 2008 6:06 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think Korean weather predictions are usually spot on actually, much more so than home. I check the weather on Naver in the morning, and rarely carry an umbrella in vain.
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aka Dave



Joined: 02 May 2008
Location: Down by the river

PostPosted: Mon Dec 22, 2008 6:36 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I took an atmospheric science class at Ucla (I'm no expert, this was a general requirement). One of the first questions of students was "why do weather forecasts suck?"

My prof explained like this: take a cubic yard of air. There are millions and millions of molecules interacting with other within that block of air. Then think about the atmosphere, the thousands miles of airspace we have, etc. Trying to predict what these molecules will do in the larger atmosphere is very, very difficult, because of the complexity of the system. And we're constantly changing the system with all the emissions of various chemicals, that can affect weather/climage.

I'm sure left a lot out. But I believe the gist of his point, is weather and climate are hugely complex and thus difficult to predict.
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xCustomx



Joined: 06 Jan 2006

PostPosted: Mon Dec 22, 2008 6:44 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm not saying it's easy...but with all the doppler equipment and other modern scientific tools, you'd think they could be a little more accurate. Like I said above, I thought that Korean citizens had launched a complaint against some group because the weather predictions were waaaaay off.
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xCustomx



Joined: 06 Jan 2006

PostPosted: Mon Dec 22, 2008 6:56 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

hahaha...i just found this on the Koreatimes site:

http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/nation/2008/12/115_36556.html

Heavy snowfall in Gangwon Province: Citizens walk past vehicles buried in snow on the street of Gangneung City, Gangwon Province, Monday. Hundreds of schools were closed due to abrupt heavy snowfall that swept the province overnight. The weather office failed to forecast the fall of heavy snow in the region and belatedly issued a warning the following morning.
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DrOctagon



Joined: 11 Jun 2008
Location: Chicago

PostPosted: Mon Dec 22, 2008 7:05 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Wunderground.com is fairly accurate. What is your source?
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Real Reality



Joined: 10 Jan 2003
Location: Seoul

PostPosted: Mon Dec 22, 2008 7:07 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Weather agency facing storm of criticism
By Kang Chan-su, JoongAng Daily (July 30, 2008)
http://joongangdaily.joins.com/article/view.asp?aid=2892984
Quote:
During the torrential rains that swept the country over the past few months, a series of incorrect weather forecasts issued by the Korea Meteorological Administration have reignited public criticism against the agency. According to both outside experts and insiders, its repeated blunders are due to a lack of weather experts and outdated weather forecasting equipment.

The 50 billion won ($49.6 million) "super computer No. 2," which the weather agency introduced in November 2005 in a bid to make more accurate predictions,....

"The super computer is hardware. What's more important is the numerical weather forecasting model, which is software, and weather forecasters who can precisely analyze the data from the model," said Lee Jae-kyu, an environmental science professor at Kangnung National University.

But the forecasting model he spoke of, imported from Japan in 1997, is outdated and three-dimensional. A four-dimensional model that detects changes in the weather every six hours is now widely used in Europe.

There are also problems concerning the lack of weather experts at the agency, a problem allegedly attributable to the organization�s personnel management system....

Change in the weather
The government needs to invest in the Korea Meteorological Administration and give it all the authority and responsibility it requires.
by Park Il-su, JoongAng Daily (August 1, 2008)
http://joongangdaily.joins.com/article/view.asp?aid=2893068

Officials indicted in weather radar case
By Lee Jin-joo, JoongAng Daily (December 9, 2008)
http://joongangdaily.joins.com/article/view.asp?aid=2898342
Quote:
The Seoul Southern District Prosecutors� Office indicted current and past officials of the Korea Meteorological Administration on charges of receiving bribes from a radar maintenance company.

The prosecution said it also confirmed that 18 additional public servants at the state weather forecaster received bribes from the company....

The other 18 public servants also received bribes from the company for loose monitoring. Some public servants signed the company's maintenance schedule log without actually checking on the service, prosecutors said....

"The inappropriate relationship between company and public servants probably resulted in poor management of the radar, causing the meteorological administration's frequently erroneous forecasts," a prosecution official said.
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teachteach



Joined: 26 Mar 2008

PostPosted: Mon Dec 22, 2008 12:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Wunderground is the most accurate because as far as I know it uses the same equipment and forecasting techniques they use for the airport.
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DC in Suwon



Joined: 14 Dec 2008

PostPosted: Mon Dec 22, 2008 12:34 pm    Post subject: Re: Why can't meteorologists forecast the weather? Reply with quote

xCustomx wrote:
A few days ago, meteorologists predicted that it would snow about 3-9cm on Sunday night. There wasn't any snow of course.

Then, they predicted it would be clear and sunny for the next week. It's been snowing for the last couple of hours now in Bundang.

I'm not complaining about just today, but aren't Korean meteorologists way off when it comes to predicting the weather? I thought that the general public had launched a complaint last year or in 2006 due to their inability to make accurate predictions.


Maybe they're using the wrong time zone?
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sojourner1



Joined: 17 Apr 2007
Location: Where meggi swim and 2 wheeled tractors go sput put chug alugg pug pug

PostPosted: Mon Dec 22, 2008 3:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

They don't have a crystal ball.
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