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mises
Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired
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 Posted: Mon Dec 08, 2008 11:46 pm Post subject: |
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http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=abgmrMVPWrQw&refer=home
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China�s Exports Shrink, Output Cools, Adviser Says (Update2)
By Li Yanping and Kevin Hamlin
Dec. 9 (Bloomberg) -- China�s exports shrank last month and industrial-production growth cooled, Fan Gang, an adviser to the People�s Bank of China, said today.
�Things are not so good,� Fan said at a forum in Beijing. �November figures will come out soon, and industrial growth will be something around 5 percent and export growth will be negative.�
A collapse from October�s 19.2 percent export growth would add pressure on policy makers meeting in Beijing this week to do more to sustain the expansion of the world�s fourth-biggest economy. The government has already unveiled a 4 trillion yuan ($582 billion) stimulus package and cut interest rates by the most in 11 years as a global recession cuts demand for the nation�s toys, textiles and electronics.
�It doesn�t really matter what China does to try to revive exports, they are going to be bad for the foreseeable future,� said Paul Cavey, an economist with Macquarie Securities in Hong Kong. �The key now is what can be done to boost domestic demand.�
China�s exports last fell in June 2001.
Inflation slowed in November for the seventh straight month, central bank statistics head Zhang Tao said at the forum. Prices may have climbed less than 3 percent, Zhang said.
The CSI 300 Index of stocks fell 1.1 percent as of the 11:30 a.m. break in trading in Shanghai. China�s export and import figures may be released as soon as today.
Weakest Growth Since 1999
Chinese leaders, meeting for three days to set economic policy, may cut personal income tax to help boost consumption, according to Kevin Lai, senior economist at Daiwa Institute of Research in Hong Kong.
Industrial-output growth of 5 percent would be the weakest since Bloomberg data began in 1999 and worse than the 7.2 percent median estimate of 14 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. Production rose 8.2 percent in October.
Economists exclude figures from January and February each year because of distortions caused by Lunar New Year holidays. Fan�s comments on exports come after a Chinese newspaper, the 21st Century Business Herald, said Dec. 7 that shipments may have fallen.
Taiwan and South Korea�s exports declined last month by the most since 2001 as the world recession took a growing toll on Asian economies. In the U.S., retail sales fell last month by the most since data began in 1969.
�Worst Case Scenario�
China needs to prepare for a �worst case scenario� as the global slump deepens, Central bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said Dec. 4. Exporters of toys, clothes and furniture are cutting production or closing down, triggering a surge in labor disputes and increasing the risk of social unrest in the world�s most populous nation.
Labor disputes almost doubled in the first 10 months of this year as businesses closed and some owners fled, the official China Daily newspaper reported Dec. 5. Sacked workers rioted at a toy factory in Guangdong province last month and Zhang Ping, the nation�s top planner, warned of the risk of �massive unemployment� and �social instability.�
The central bank has cut the key one-year lending rate to 5.58 percent from 7.47 percent in September and dropped quotas limiting lending by banks.
�Aggressive� Response
The �aggressive� monetary response is likely to continue, said Grace Ng, an economist with JPMorgan Chase & Co. in Hong Kong, who expects the rate to fall to 3.96 percent next year.
The yuan�s biggest one-day decline in three years on Dec. 1 also has prompted speculation that China may allow its currency to depreciate, helping exporters by making their products cheaper in overseas markets.
The yuan may weaken as much as 10 percent against the dollar, Morgan Stanley said last week. In contrast, Commerce Minister Chen Deming said that the nation won�t rely on currency depreciation to help exporters who are suffering because of shrinking demand.
China should stick to a �gradual� approach on the currency and policy makers shouldn�t bow to pressure for a sharp fall in the yuan, central bank adviser Fan said today. He is the only academic member of the bank�s monetary-policy committee.
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Very tough times are just starting there. I don't envy the Chinese situation at all.
Also, Bloomberg has really taken the lead in covering the China end of the financial crises. The recent activity has been outstanding when compared to similar organizations (FT, WSJ etc). |
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mises
Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired
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| Posted: Thu Dec 11, 2008 7:07 am Post subject: |
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http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=awmwBKgkvcj8&refer=asia
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Dec. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Dai Chen broods as train No. 1076 rumbles across south China�s Guangdong province, taking him back to the fields and trees of his rural home. He�d rather be on the noisy, cramped factory floor in Dongguan where he used to work.
�There�s nothing to do in the countryside except be a farmer,� Dai, 21, says while smoking a Baisha cigarette in the dark corridor between cars. �I don�t want to be a farmer.�
As many as 20 million migrants may leave coastal cities next year as the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression shutters factories making everything from clothes to toys and computers, economists estimate. Until now migration has been a safety valve for China, with the population of rural areas dropping by 140 million since 1999.
As workers return to the countryside, where wages are a third of those in the cities, there is growing concern among China�s leaders that rising tensions could undermine the Communist Party, which came to power 60 years ago in a peasant revolution. Fired workers smashed motorcycles and damaged company equipment during demonstrations last month in southern Guangdong.
�The government is quite nervous about the situation among migrant workers and the rural population,� says Willy Wo-Lap Lam, adjunct professor of history at the Chinese University of Hong Kong. �The legitimacy of the regime is based solely on its ability to improve people�s living standards. If it can�t deliver improvement, its legitimacy could be fractured.�
Snaking Into Countryside
The No. 1076 to Chongqing, 24 hours and 1,700 kilometers (1,050 miles) away, represents dashed dreams for the migrants who file on lugging their belongings in burlap bags.
Men sweating from the strain of stuffing their bags into overhead racks sit bare-chested in blue upholstered seats. Women chat in a mix of village dialects and Mandarin while spitting sunflower seed shells onto the floor and slurping instant noodles from paper cartons.
The train snakes from Guangdong�s capital through rural Hunan and Sichuan provinces, which supplied the cheap labor that powered China�s economy for three decades.
Now demand for labor is slowing with China�s economy.
Gross domestic product will grow 7.5 percent next year, the slowest in almost two decades, the World Bank forecasts. China has averaged 9.9 percent annual growth for the past 30 years. Exports fell 2.2 percent in November for the first decline in seven years, the customs bureau said yesterday.
China needs at least 8 percent growth to create jobs for the more than 20 million rural laborers and college graduates who enter the urban workforce each year, says Glenn Maguire, chief Asia-Pacific economist at Societe Generale SA in Hong Kong.
�There�s No Work�
Dai left his family�s farm outside Zhuzhou, a city of 3.8 million in Hunan province, two years ago to work at a sweater factory in Dongguan, where seven of every eight residents last year was a migrant. He earned 1,200 yuan ($175) a month and planned to save enough money to buy a truck for hauling freight, just like his brother-in-law.
That dream evaporated when falling orders forced the factory to close, eliminating 200 jobs.
It took a month of unsuccessful job hunting and cajoling by his father to convince Dai to leave Dongguan. Dai Fuming had joined his son a year ago and found work building apartment complexes, hoping to save for retirement. The tall, gaunt man says he quit his job because the 1,000 yuan he earned each month wasn�t enough to support both of them.
�There�s no work,� Dai Fuming, 48, says while puffing on a Baisha as the train whizzes past gray, low-standing apartment blocks. �The longer we stayed, the more we would have eaten into our savings.�
He says his savings are �not nearly enough,� and the men don�t know what they�ll do when they get home.
Ripple Effect
The exodus will ripple through the rural economy as the amount of cash sent home to family members declines, says Issac Meng, senior economist at BNP Paribas SA in Beijing.
�The wages of these workers are not only for them but for a family, as well,� Meng says. �This is a key reason why consumer spending in rural areas may decline next year.�
Twenty million migrants will make similar trips next year as more factories close, says Andy Xie, a Shanghai-based independent analyst and former chief Asia economist for Morgan Stanley.
�It�s unlikely there will be enough work in the countryside,� he says. �Big groups of unemployed workers hanging around are bound to be trouble.�
Last month, about 500 laid-off toy factory workers smashed police vehicles and rampaged through company offices in Dongguan because they considered compensation offers inadequate. A month earlier, 1,000 workers blocked a Dongguan highway to demand unpaid wages after their pet goods factory shut.
�No one cares about the workers in China,� says Ding Lihua, 25, who made shoes in Dongguan for five years until his factory closed. �There�s too many of us.�
�Go West�
The government last month announced a 4 trillion-yuan ($584 billion) stimulus package to create jobs by building roads, bridges and railways. It also raised tax rebates for exporters. These initiatives should fuel growth of at least 8 percent in 2009 and 2010, Maguire says.
China also touts a �Go West� program of tax cuts and lower land-use fees to lure companies to poorer regions and close the income gap with coastal provinces like Guangdong. Hewlett-Packard Co., the world�s biggest personal-computer maker, said in October it would open a factory in Chongqing, where per capita gross domestic product is less than half of Guangdong�s.
As night falls on the 1076, passengers settle into their seats and try to sleep. Four men play Zheng Shangyou, a card game similar to President, for pocket change, attracting an audience of half-a-dozen others drinking 22-ounce bottles of Snow beer.
Eel Farming
Cui Hao fills his carton of instant noodles from a tank of free hot water. The 27-year-old Sichuan native used to work at a leather goods factory that closed in October.
�I�ve never seen it so bad,� Cui says. �If the government can�t help us then no one can.�
A few cars down sits Pan Ziqiang, a thin 28-year-old from near Chongqing. He�s returning to his wife and two daughters after losing his job making remote-controlled toy cars.
He says he earned 1,000 yuan a month on the assembly line and is going home with about 4,000 yuan in savings after four years of work.
Pan�s family grows rice and vegetables on a plot of land measuring 1 mu, or 0.16 acres. The paddies are inhabited by an eel species considered a delicacy, and Pan wants to raise them for sale.
�There�s no way to make easy money anymore,� he says, rubbing his hands together in the evening cold. �It seems like everyone now could use a little help.� |
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Kuros
Joined: 27 Apr 2004
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| Posted: Thu Dec 11, 2008 3:27 pm Post subject: |
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The 'Go West' campaign is actually a pretty good idea.
Bye, bye, Uighers.  |
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mises
Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired
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| Posted: Mon Dec 29, 2008 2:36 pm Post subject: |
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http://www.minyanville.com/
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I had a chance to chat at length with a Chinese-American businessman whose company owns manufacturing operations in China. He suggested that the Chinese government has pretty much given up on the notion of being able to transform its export economy to a domestic, consumer-based one.
There's an ongoing mass exodus of workers back to the countryside and many many manufacturers of export products are either closing or beginning their wind down process. His sense is that the government will be very active with the regional governments in trying to smooth the transition of workers back to rural area, and that's where most of the "stimulus" package touted by the Chinese government will be focused on.
In my humble opinion, China's appetite for U.S. debt was simply a gigantic vendor-financing scheme, where they lent us money so that we could buy stuff from them. After removing the "buy from them" part, I hope Boom Boom [Bernanke] and company are not counting on the Chinese to fund our current Keynsian binge. |
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/12/yellow-brick-road-economic-theory.html
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Goodbye Yellow Brick Road
The "Yellow Brick Road" theory of the global economy was based on three foolish ideas.
1. The US consumer could consume beyond his means for perpetuity.
2. China could decouple from the global economy and grow its GDP forever at an 11% clip by taking workers from the farms and moving them to cities.
3. It is possible for a county to spend its way to prosperity. |
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mises
Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired
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| Posted: Tue Jan 06, 2009 9:53 am Post subject: |
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http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSTRE5010DQ20090102
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BEIJING (Reuters) - Chinese factories slashed output and workers at a record pace in December and manufacturing activity overall fell for a fifth month as the global financial crisis hit export demand, a survey by brokerage CLSA showed on Friday.
The figures, which CLSA said showed a sector close to recession, spell further gloom ahead for the Chinese economy and highlight the urgency with which the government is trying to cushion the country from the effects of the global crisis. |
It is getting very messy over there. The government is starting to crack down on dissent on a more firm level too. |
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caniff
Joined: 03 Feb 2004
Location: All over the map
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| Posted: Tue Jan 06, 2009 10:29 am Post subject: |
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| The "iron rice bowl" is starting to rust. |
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mises
Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired
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mises
Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired
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| Posted: Fri Jan 09, 2009 6:40 am Post subject: |
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http://chinaworker.info/en/content/news/606/
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Chinese regime braced for 'mass conflicts' in 2009
Thu, 8 Jan 2009.
One in four workers unemployed as global capitalist crisis bites
Vincent Kolo, chinaworker.info
As 2009 opens the official Chinese media has featured a number of high-level warnings about the risk of increased social unrest on the backs of the economic downturn. The gloomy mood was summed up in a headline in China Daily (6 January): �Grim times ahead�. Overseas commentators seem to agree. Many warn that the ruling �communist� dictatorship is this year set to face its biggest challenges since 1989, when the country was shaken by the mass Tiananmen Square protests.
�We�re entering the peak of mass incidents,� warned one commentator in Outlook magazine. �In 2009, Chinese societies may face more conflicts and clashes that will test even more the governing capabilities of all levels of the Party and government,� he concluded. Outlook is an authoritative weekly published by the Xinhua news agency. In the latest edition it estimates that ten million migrant workers lost their jobs in 2008. This figure represents between 7-10 percent of the total manufacturing workforce.
Dire warnings now pepper the speeches of China�s top leaders. �The present situation of maintaining national security and social stability is grave,� admitted the regime�s �top policeman�, Public Security Minister Meng Jianzhu, at a conference of senior officers in Beijing held on 6 January. In a keynote speech in December, president Hu Jintao himself warned a gathering of party dignitaries celebrating three decades of capitalist �reform and opening� that their nearly sixty year grip on power was not �immutable� and that diffusing social conflicts caused by the economic crisis must be the top priority. But how to diffuse such conflicts? On this topic, Hu had little to say.
The last few months have seen a marked upturn in strikes and street protests including clashes with security forces. A wave of taxi drivers� stoppages represents a new stage, with conflicts in one city spreading to another � ten major cities were affected. In the manufacturing powerhouse of Guangdong province, labour department officials reported a doubling of industrial disputes last year compared to 2007. These trends are likely to intensify as the economic outlook darkens. Export growth of zero is forecast in 2009, compared to 16.5 percent growth for last year. �This year is going to be characterised by much, much weaker growth in China than I think most people are anticipating,� predicts Jim Walker, chief economist at Asianomics in Hong Kong.
This heightened risk for social unrest is part of a global pattern. Governments and ruling elites everywhere are looking to the coming year with dread. The tumultuous events in Greece in December show that riots and mass protests against police brutality are not a uniquely Chinese phenomenon. |
The whole article is very interesting. |
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sojourner1
Joined: 17 Apr 2007
Location: Where meggi swim and 2 wheeled tractors go sput put chug alugg pug pug
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| Posted: Fri Jan 09, 2009 7:37 am Post subject: |
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What's going to happen when China quits feeding all that money into the US economy? Will China demand full repayment of the debt in the form of land and other assets despite the US treasury stating it would be illegal for them to do that? One wonders why China was willing to lend the US all this debt. It's because it supported China's export model to support economic growth by allowing American consumers to borrow this money as to afford said Chinese exports at excessive levels. Fact is, the American consumers can't continue to buy all that at previous levels seen from 2002 to 2007 due to tightening credit and fewer decent paying job opportunities. It's a real downer out there everywhere you look.
I too fear that China will become volatile and corrupt and may start a war. They must be very tense about all this. I bet China is no fun place to be. Asians get mad when their trading partners are letting them down by not delivering them boatloads of money for their boatloads of junk. They really get mad if you down their stuff for cheap quality and excessive chemical pollution which we've officially done a few times in the past year. The East and West are beginning to divide more and more now days. It was not about friendship, but about now eroding economic interests. It was only about seeing what they could get out of America by xfering it's wealth to Asia utilizing the Walmart monopoly and then selling decent quality little cars that make great grocery getters. |
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sojourner1
Joined: 17 Apr 2007
Location: Where meggi swim and 2 wheeled tractors go sput put chug alugg pug pug
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| Posted: Fri Jan 09, 2009 7:39 am Post subject: |
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What's going to happen when China quits feeding all that money into the US economy? Will China demand full repayment of the debt in the form of land and other assets despite the US treasury stating it would be illegal for them to do that? One wonders why China was willing to lend the US all this debt. It's because it supported China's export model to support economic growth by allowing American consumers to borrow this money as to afford said Chinese exports at excessive levels. Fact is, the American consumers can't continue to buy all that at previous levels seen from 2002 to 2007 due to tightening credit and fewer decent paying job opportunities. It's a real downer out there everywhere you look.
I too fear that China will become volatile and corrupt and may start a war. They must be very tense about all this. I bet China is no fun place to be. Asians get mad when their trading partners are letting them down by not delivering them boatloads of money for their boatloads of junk. They really get mad if you down their stuff for cheap quality and excessive chemical pollution which we've officially done a few times in the past year. The East and West are beginning to divide more and more now days. It was not about friendship, but about economic interests. It was only about seeing what they could get out of America by xfering it's wealth to Asia utilizing the Walmart monopoly and then selling decent quality little cars that make great grocery getters. |
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mises
Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired
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| Posted: Fri Jan 09, 2009 7:45 am Post subject: |
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| What's going to happen when China quits feeding all that money into the US economy? Will China demand full repayment of the debt... |
The debt has a term (3 yrs, 5 yrs, 20 yrs etc). Most held is 3 years. They can't just call up the Americans and demand repayment.
Though, it is no secret that the US issues new debt to cover the old debt, or tries to inflate the debt away. Not just the US, either.
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| I too fear that China will become volatile and corrupt and may start a war. |
I don't see a war at all. This will be a transformative period for the political economy on the Mainland. It will be very interesting to watch and I firmly believe that all violence will be domestically contained.
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| The East and West are beginning to divide more and more now days. |
I don't agree at all. While there will be some tension as "Asia" tries to blame the US, only cooperation and the creation of a more stable political economy can get the world moving again. Asia will cooperate, as will we. |
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mises
Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired
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| Posted: Fri Jan 09, 2009 12:37 pm Post subject: |
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http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4234a402-d8fd-11dd-ab5f-000077b07658.html
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Beijing moves to stifle reform calls
By Jamil Anderlini in Beijing
Published: January 2 2009 19:03 | Last updated: January 2 2009 19:03
The Chinese government is moving to crush a group of prominent dissidents and intellectuals that has released a rallying call for democracy, human rights and rule of law.
The group of about 300 writers, peasant farmers, students, professors, journalists, economists, and political activists from across the country all signed a document, known as Charter 08, that provides a detailed and wide-ranging blueprint for peaceful political, legal and economic reform in China.
Since then, nearly 7,000 Chinese and foreign intellectuals inside and outside the country have signed Charter 08, which warns of �the possibility of a violent conflict of disastrous proportions� if Beijing does not quickly move to reform the one-party authoritarian state.
Chinese intellectuals and dissidents are calling the document the most significant of its kind for at least a decade and possibly since the 1989 Tiananmen Square protests. Its name is a reference to Charter 77, the 1977 call for human rights issued by dissidents in former Czechoslovakia.
It has provoked increasing concern among China�s leaders. Since it began circulating one of the organisers has been detained without charge and friends and relatives had no word of his whereabouts until Friday.
At least 70 of the Charter�s 303 original signatories have been summoned or interrogated by police and China�s powerful Central Propaganda Department has warned all domestic media not to interview or carry articles by anyone who signs the charter.
The interrogations gathered momentum this week and all those called in have been ordered to retract their support for the Charter. The government appears to be concerned by the heady language and the prominence of many of the signatories, who include mid-level government officials and Communist party academics.
The charter was made public through the internet on December 10 to mark the 60th anniversary of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights and comes on the eve of the 20th anniversary, on June 4, of the Tiananmen Square massacre, which it explicitly mentions.
Senior officials have shown increasing public concern over the potential for unrest as a result of lay-offs and crumbling growth. The charter could serve as a rallying call for up to 1.5m unemployed recent graduates.
Liu Xiaobo, a prominent literary critic, dissident and apparently one of the organisers of Charter 08, was detained by state security officers on December 8.
After nearly a month without word of his whereabouts and no formal charges, Mr Liu�s wife was allowed to meet him on the outskirts of Beijing on Friday and was told he was being held under house arrest at an undisclosed location, according to rights groups.
His detention appears to be a violation of China�s own criminal law, which states that a suspect subjected to �residential surveillance� must be held in their own home, say to rights activists. |
I think this might be a very important event. |
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caniff
Joined: 03 Feb 2004
Location: All over the map
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| Posted: Tue Jan 13, 2009 6:03 am Post subject: |
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http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/28631470/
Now dealing with the third month of protests and sit-ins, the government has been gradually reducing its cash payouts to laid-off workers.
The workers at the Jianrong Suitcase Factory, who make an average of about $220 a month, finally accepted the government's money and went home after their bosses couldn't be located. But it was not without a fight that left workers with scrapes and bruises and, more important, resentment over their fate.
Still, the Jianrong workers are among the lucky ones. Tong Hengxin, a headhunter in Guangzhou, said some laid-off factory workers are getting back much less from the government, only a third of what they rightfully earned. With job prospects bleak, that money can't last long. As a result, Tong said, the mood is desperate: "Workers are always threatening to jump from the buildings and commit suicide."
2009 is shaping up to be a major test, or series of tests, for the Communist Party. |
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mises
Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired
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| Posted: Thu Jan 15, 2009 10:50 pm Post subject: |
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Here is the "big picture":
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/ambrose_evans-pritchard/blog/2009/01/15/will_china_lead_the_world_into_depression
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Will China lead the world into depression?
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Albert Edwards at Societe Generale has issued another terror alert:
Sell everything. Hide in a bunker with plenty of whisky. The S&P 500 index of US shares is about to crash through its half-century support line to 500.
"Technicals say it is time to bail out. Cut equity expose and prepare for rout. US depression looking likely. While China's 2009 implosion could get ugly."
Mr Edwards -- who is of an "Austrian" persuasion, ie hates excess debt -- was one of the very few economists to see this whole crisis coming, and to issue warnings clearly and emphatically (unlike others who now claim to have been seers, but in fact hedged). He said interests rates would be slashed to zero and that bond yields would fall to the lowest in history. All this has occurred.
The key argument is that markets have been sold a pup on the China growth miracle and have massively underestimated the risks for the global FX and trading system as this unravels.
"The Chinese economy is imploding and this raises the possibility of regime change. To prevent this, the authorities would likely devalue the yuan. A subsequent trade war could see a re-run of the Great Depression.... Do you really trust politicians to "do the right thing"?
He notes that China's electric power output has fallen for three months. The OECD's leading indicator for China has fallen off a cliff. Exports have collapsed across Asia.
"We continue to emphasize our long-held view that emerging economies are particularly vulnerable to a reversal in the global liquidity pump."
Mr Edwards said investors have a "touching faith" that China's authorities are in control of events.
"Could the economic situation in China become so bad that it threatens the regime itself? Of course it could. But before being swept away in a tidal wave of worker unrest it has one key tool in its economic armoury it has used before. MEGA-DEVALUATION. China has a track record of such things. At the end of 1993 the authorities devalued the yuan by 33pc."
A replay would be the surest root to a Smoot-Hawley II.
"Amid confidence that the ongoing, massive, monetary and fiscal stimulus will prevent a repeat of the Great Depression, will it instead be competitive devaluation and implosion of world trade that we should watch out for."
This is not my view. I believe the Chinese leadership will hold the line and behave responsibly, as they did in 1998. I wouldn't want to bet the farm that Albert Edwards is wrong. |
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mises
Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired
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| Posted: Tue Jan 20, 2009 5:29 pm Post subject: |
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http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aEfualBs_OUM
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Jan. 20 (Bloomberg) -- China�s official urban unemployment rate jumped for the first time since 2003 and may climb to an almost 30-year high as exports slump and a slowdown deepens in the world�s third-biggest economy.
Registered unemployment rose to 4.2 percent as of Dec. 31, Yin Chengji, spokesman for the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, said in a transcript of a press briefing in Beijing today. It was 4 percent three months earlier. |
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