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chris_J2
Joined: 17 Apr 2006
Location: From Brisbane, Au.
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Bigfeet
Joined: 29 May 2008
Location: Grrrrr.....
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 Posted: Wed Jan 14, 2009 4:01 pm Post subject: |
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| I can see China passing Japan but I don't see it passing the US. When it has a military that's better than the US and a better reserve currency, then maybe. |
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Gopher
Joined: 04 Jun 2005
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| Posted: Wed Jan 14, 2009 5:02 pm Post subject: |
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What is China's dreamvision of itself as a world power, not to mention its dreamvision of the world it would like to create?
Britain and America dreamed of constitutional, liberal democracies and/or free trade, in a capitalist world. Of what does Beijing dream...? |
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Kuros
Joined: 27 Apr 2004
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| Posted: Wed Jan 14, 2009 5:15 pm Post subject: |
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| Gopher wrote: |
What is China's dreamvision of itself as a world power, not to mention its dreamvision of the world it would like to create?
Britain and America dreamed of constitutional, liberal democracies and/or free trade, in a capitalist world. Of what does Beijing dream...? |
1) To not be a backwater anymore
2) To become the dominant regional power in East/Southeast Asia
China doesn't even aspire to superpower status |
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mises
Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired
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| Posted: Wed Jan 14, 2009 5:17 pm Post subject: |
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Firstly, I believe the article is using old data that was revised downward significantly. I'll check later.
Anyways, Gopher, I don't think we know what China's view of the world is. I do not think that they think in terms of "the world" and more of the Sino-sphere. Chinese expects to dominate East Asia, and probably will. What their plans for Africa are aside from resource extraction are is really an unknown. |
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Mix1
Joined: 08 May 2007
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| Posted: Wed Jan 14, 2009 6:48 pm Post subject: |
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| Gopher wrote: |
What is China's dreamvision of itself as a world power, not to mention its dreamvision of the world it would like to create?
Britain and America dreamed of constitutional, liberal democracies and/or free trade, in a capitalist world. Of what does Beijing dream...? |
Dominance?
Pretty much anything BUT constitutional, liberal democracies, that's for sure. |
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mithridates
Joined: 03 Mar 2003
Location: President's office, Korean Space Agency
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| Posted: Thu Jan 15, 2009 3:57 am Post subject: |
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| mises wrote: |
Firstly, I believe the article is using old data that was revised downward significantly. I'll check later.
Anyways, Gopher, I don't think we know what China's view of the world is. I do not think that they think in terms of "the world" and more of the Sino-sphere. Chinese expects to dominate East Asia, and probably will. What their plans for Africa are aside from resource extraction are is really an unknown. |
I'm looking forward to a stronger Chinese influence here in Asia because I don't want to see English become the world's second language, as if that ever happens it'll change to something beyond our control. That's how languages like Bislama and Tok Pisin were formed, because there weren't enough L1 speakers to maintain a stable base.
The rapid growth of Spanish on the internet is also good news:
http://www.miamiherald.com/business_monday/story/847650.html
I'm hoping for a bit of linguistic deadlock that should be able to bring back an atmosphere similar to the beginning of the 1900s where IALs were really able to flourish. |
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ManintheMiddle
Joined: 20 Oct 2008
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| Posted: Thu Jan 15, 2009 4:48 am Post subject: |
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China exceeds Germany in GDP but it lags woefully behind in per capita income, not to mention quality of life. Let's be real here.
If the Chinese economy doubled and then doubled again it would not equal that of the U.S.
And the only Asians who trust the Chinese militarily are the Pakistanis and North Koreans. |
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Gopher
Joined: 04 Jun 2005
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| Posted: Thu Jan 15, 2009 6:01 am Post subject: |
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| Kuros wrote: |
1) To not be a backwater anymore
2) To become the dominant regional power in East/Southeast Asia
China doesn't even aspire to superpower status |
Sounds almost as if you have gone native. The Chinese govt does not want to influence the world around it and shape it as it thinks it ought to be, however that may be? I do not buy that.
Not so long ago it was exporting revolution via rural guerrila warfare, contesting Soviet Russia for leadership of world Communism even. |
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it's full of stars
Joined: 26 Dec 2007
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Voyeur
Joined: 19 Jun 2003
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| Posted: Thu Jan 15, 2009 7:55 am Post subject: |
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I used to be a bit of a China basher. Now I'm not so sure that they aren't very smart.
They would never admit it, but in there heart of hearts it could be that many leaders of China hope that one day it will be a constitutional, liberal democracy. However, they probably feel that China can't get there in one step and that social stability would fall apart if political freedoms are instituted too fast. And conveniently, that timeteable also means that none of them have to give up power in their lifetimes.
I do doubt that many of the leaders are true communists any more - rather they just believe in the ancient Chinese tradition of firm central control. They pay lip service to communism as that is the current mechanism that allows for their rule. But they would be just as comfortable with dictatorship, monarchy, whatever. |
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ED209
Joined: 17 Oct 2006
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| Posted: Thu Jan 15, 2009 8:44 am Post subject: |
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| Gopher wrote: |
| Of what does Beijing dream...? |
Pandas. |
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Kuros
Joined: 27 Apr 2004
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| Posted: Thu Jan 15, 2009 10:22 am Post subject: |
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| Gopher wrote: |
| Kuros wrote: |
1) To not be a backwater anymore
2) To become the dominant regional power in East/Southeast Asia
China doesn't even aspire to superpower status |
Sounds almost as if you have gone native. The Chinese govt does not want to influence the world around it and shape it as it thinks it ought to be, however that may be? I do not buy that. |
Even if I had gone native, I would never suggest even my own new gov't doesn't wish to influence the world. If China becomes the dominant regional power in East Asia, it will influence that region, as it already does to a considerable extent.
But questions of motives are secondary to the nitty gritty reality that MnM mentioned: Most of China is poor and backwards. Every discussion of China needs to begin with that assumption, b/c it is the reality. Germany has 82m people and China 1,330m. That means that Hermann Deutsch is still 16 times wealthier than Zhou Zhongguo.
That's just pathetic. China understands that is pathetic, and smart people in China even understand that they have a looming demographic crisis coupled with an environmental catastrophe. I'm not going to fret over Chinese domination of the world because its downright impossible. All this time China's population is going to begin to decrease over the next 30 years as America's steadily increases, and Joe America has still a factor of ten times more economic presence than Zhou Zhongguo.
As long as China stays minimally rational, it will focus on pulling itself out of backwardness. |
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mises
Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired
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| Posted: Thu Jan 15, 2009 11:11 am Post subject: |
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| Kuros wrote: |
As long as China stays minimally rational, it will focus on pulling itself out of backwardness. |
I strongly agree. In my crystal ball, I see much lower growth for China in the next decade+. |
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Gopher
Joined: 04 Jun 2005
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| Posted: Thu Jan 15, 2009 11:55 am Post subject: |
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| Kuros wrote: |
| I'm not going to fret over Chinese domination of the world because its downright impossible... |
But neither am I and that does not represent my question, either.
The Chinese govt has recently got into a larger army, a blue-water navy, special forces, and, reportedly, covert operations. It represents a nuclear power and it sits on the Security Council as a permanent member, with veto power. Beijing has also shown a recent proclivity to expand its influence not only into places such as Indochina and Tibet, but also parts of Africa. And let us not forget Taiwan's status.
I merely ask and wonder and think out-loud, what kinds of big-picture projects does Beijing dream of in world affairs? You seem to think "none." Very well. That represents an answer. |
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