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caniff
Joined: 03 Feb 2004
Location: All over the map
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 Posted: Thu Jan 15, 2009 2:45 pm Post subject: |
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They are reportedly quite interested in the possibilities of cyber- and space-warfare. I guess it, however, that it could just be fear of the yellow peril driving those reports.
It was Japan that the U.S. used to sweat, but it's now been replaced by China. |
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Kuros
Joined: 27 Apr 2004
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| Posted: Thu Jan 15, 2009 3:23 pm Post subject: |
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| caniff wrote: |
It was Japan that the U.S. used to sweat, but it's now been replaced by China. |
If you had to write one sentence explaining the American psychology re: the rise of China, this one is as good as any. |
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chris_J2
Joined: 17 Apr 2006
Location: From Brisbane, Au.
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Paji eh Wong
Joined: 03 Jun 2003
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| Posted: Fri Jan 16, 2009 12:04 am Post subject: |
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Since no one has said it yet, congratulations China.
People pulling themselves out of poverty should be applauded. |
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Blockhead confidence
Joined: 02 Apr 2008
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| Posted: Fri Jan 16, 2009 1:28 am Post subject: |
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| Kuros wrote: |
Even if I had gone native, I would never suggest even my own new gov't doesn't wish to influence the world. If China becomes the dominant regional power in East Asia, it will influence that region, as it already does to a considerable extent.
But questions of motives are secondary to the nitty gritty reality that MnM mentioned: Most of China is poor and backwards. Every discussion of China needs to begin with that assumption, b/c it is the reality. Germany has 82m people and China 1,330m. That means that Hermann Deutsch is still 16 times wealthier than Zhou Zhongguo.
That's just pathetic. China understands that is pathetic, and smart people in China even understand that they have a looming demographic crisis coupled with an environmental catastrophe. I'm not going to fret over Chinese domination of the world because its downright impossible. All this time China's population is going to begin to decrease over the next 30 years as America's steadily increases, and Joe America has still a factor of ten times more economic presence than Zhou Zhongguo.
As long as China stays minimally rational, it will focus on pulling itself out of backwardness. |
To begin with, there have been many powers that had poor populations. 19th century Russia was the first that came to my mind, and maybe even 20th century Russia. A country like China could become a world power, while still having poor citizens, provided their economy continues to grow.
But up to a point I agree with you. It's hard to believe there are Chinese think tanks planning to spread glorious Chinese values and systems to all the world's unfortunates. There is, though, a uniqueness to China's boom that was expressed by Jeffrey Sachs (is he someone worth quoting?) who said, from my recollection, that it was the biggest, fastest development in history. It's possible that out of economic necessity China will throw its weight around in regions outside Asia.
Keep an eye on Australia - it's arguably the western country most reliant on China. |
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chris_J2
Joined: 17 Apr 2006
Location: From Brisbane, Au.
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| Posted: Fri Jan 16, 2009 4:15 am Post subject: |
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| Keep an eye on Australia - it's arguably the western country most reliant on China |
China became Australia's biggest trading partner in January 2008, overtaking Japan. Sth Korea is # 3, & the USA #4.
Source: Dept Foreign Affairs & Trade (Australia)
Last edited by chris_J2 on Tue Jan 20, 2009 6:33 pm; edited 3 times in total |
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Gopher
Joined: 04 Jun 2005
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| Posted: Fri Jan 16, 2009 4:40 am Post subject: |
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| chris_J2 wrote: |
| The argument that China won't 'catch' Japan & the USA, because most of its population is rural based, is flawed. |
Very well. Let me approach my question from another angle. Several who post here seem to always argue that Beijing will soon displace America in world affairs.
What do those who argue for this, and especially those who hope for it, expect to happen then? What exactly? |
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dmbfan
Joined: 09 Mar 2006
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| Posted: Fri Jan 16, 2009 5:20 am Post subject: |
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| China doesn't even aspire to superpower status |
Your're joking right?
1. In the past, China once was the cultural, artistical and social capital of the world.
2. China has suffered humilatin after humilation from the West.
Do you honestly think China does not want to recapture its power? Do you honestly think that China is not taking its time in this? Why do you think China has bought so much U.S. debt?
It's all a chess game and China is out to win.
China is not to be trusted.
dmbfan |
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dmbfan
Joined: 09 Mar 2006
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| Posted: Fri Jan 16, 2009 5:26 am Post subject: |
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| It was Japan that the U.S. used to sweat, but it's now been replaced by China. |
Thats a good point.
dmbfan |
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tfunk
Joined: 12 Aug 2006
Location: Dublin, Ireland
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| Posted: Fri Jan 16, 2009 3:42 pm Post subject: |
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| Gopher wrote: |
| chris_J2 wrote: |
| The argument that China won't 'catch' Japan & the USA, because most of its population is rural based, is flawed. |
Very well. Let me approach my question from another angle. Several who post here seem to always argue that Beijing will soon displace America in world affairs.
What do those who argue for this, and especially those who hope for it, expect to happen then? What exactly? |
I doubt it will be soon.
China will start building up economic and political relations across the globe with the strategic aim of extending its influence on the policies of other countries re. territorial rights. Expect to see a Chinese military presence build up in locations around the world with the assent of the governments in power.
I'd expect China to start indirectly/directly funding military campaigns across the globe indirectly beneficial to their economic and territorial plans.
However, there's no telling where the local population in China will be ideologically in ten years. With the great discrepancies between the wealthy and poor is another revolution on the cards? Before China looks abroad, it might have to ensure political stability within. |
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chris_J2
Joined: 17 Apr 2006
Location: From Brisbane, Au.
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| Posted: Fri Jan 16, 2009 5:27 pm Post subject: China |
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| Beijing will soon displace America in world affairs |
Is that necessarily a bad thing? China is now starting to face the same kinds of problems, as the US. There have already been several attempts at terrorist attacks on the 2008 Beijing Olympics, eg, & many Americans are sick of the US playing 'world policeman', with little or no appreciation for the time, money & effort expended, & the constant, unappreciative sniping, & both verbal & physical attacks on the US.
To any country seriously wanting to usurp the US, they should also look at the baggage that comes with the #1 position. 'Tall Poppy syndrome' is alive and well, unfortunately.
I can't see China overtaking the US, anytime soon. Just that at current growth rates, it might happen in 28 years time.
To be a true #1 world power, China would also need to take the lead in innovative technology, eg, (currently held by the US), & not just economic might. |
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caniff
Joined: 03 Feb 2004
Location: All over the map
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| Posted: Fri Jan 16, 2009 5:49 pm Post subject: |
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^ Good post. Others would be well-served by being careful what they wish for.
I think Americans as a people (not the elites, of course) are fatigued by the responsibilities attendant with its world position in recent history.
Many factors have led to this point, but it seems the US needs a breather to sort itself out. I'm pulling for Obama to run an admin that can start us on a more sustainable path. |
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mises
Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired
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| Posted: Fri Jan 16, 2009 5:56 pm Post subject: |
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http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d99369b8-e178-11dd-afa0-0000779fd2ac,dwp_uuid=9c33700c-4c86-11da-89df-0000779e2340.html
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The Group of Two that could change the world
By Zbigniew Brzezinski
Published: January 13 2009 19:44 | Last updated: January 13 2009 19:44
When President Jimmy Carter sent me to China in 1978 to initiate the secret negotiations that resulted in the normalisation of US-China relations, only 1,200 foreigners lived in Beijing; just the other day 1,100 American officials moved into the new US embassy � and it is estimated that 150,000 foreigners now live in the city. Our world is different, better and safer because of that normalisation.
It precipitated almost from the start security co-operation that has been of genuine benefit both to the US and China. The effect was to change the cold war�s global chessboard � to the disadvantage of the Soviet Union. Indirectly, the normalisation facilitated Chairman Deng Xiaoping�s decision to undertake a comprehensive economic reform. China�s growth would have been much harder without the expansion in US-Chinese trade and financial relations that followed normalisation.
What is the current geostrategic status of the US-China relationship?
An article in Liaowang magazine (July 14 2008) describes the relationship as one of �complex interdependence�, in which both sides evaluate each other in pragmatic and moderate terms and in which �the two sides can compete and consult within the existing international rules�. To be sure, a globally ascending China is a revisionist power in that it desires important changes in the international system but it seeks them in a patient, prudent and peaceful fashion. Americans who deal with foreign affairs especially appreciate the fact that Chinese strategic thinking has moved away from notions of a global class conflict and violent revolution, emphasising instead China�s �peaceful rising� in global influence while seeking a �harmonious world�.
Such common perspectives also make it easier for both sides to cope with residual or potential disagreements and to co-operate on such challenges as those posed by North Korea�s nuclear programme. If we at all times keep in mind the centrality of our interdependence, we will be able to cope with other contentious issues.
What should now be our shared grand goal? Our relationship cannot be static; it will either expand or narrow. The world will benefit, and so will our countries, if it expands. As a practical matter, we need to widen and deepen our geostrategic co-operation, beyond the immediate need for close collaboration in coping with the economic crisis.
China is needed as a direct participant in the dialogue with Iran, for China will also be affected if the effort to negotiate ends in failure. US-China consultations regarding India and Pakistan can perhaps lead to more effective even if informal mediation, for a conflict between the two would be a regional calamity. China should become actively involved in helping to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which increasingly poses the risk of a radicalised and unstable Middle East.
We need to develop a shared view on how to cope with the global risks posed by climate change. We should explore the possibility of creating a larger standby UN peacekeeping force for deployment in failed states. We should discuss how an international initiative towards a global adoption of the zero-nuclear weapons option might be helpful in stemming wider nuclear weapons proliferation. We certainly need to collaborate closely in expanding the current Group of Eight leading industrial nations to a G14 or G16, in order to widen the global circle of decision-makers and to develop a more inclusive response to the economic crisis.
But to promote all that we need an informal G2. The relationship between the US and China has to be a comprehensive partnership, paralleling our relations with Europe and Japan. Our top leaders should therefore meet informally on a regular schedule for personal in-depth discussions not just about our bilateral relations but about the world in general.
All this points in a politically as well as philosophically ambitious direction. The Chinese emphasis on �harmony� can serve as a useful point of departure for the US-Chinese summits. In an era in which the risks of a massively destructive �clash of civilisations� are rising, the deliberate promotion of a genuine conciliation of civilisations is urgently needed. It is a task that President-elect Barack Obama � who is a conciliator at heart � should find congenial, and which President Hu Jintao � who devised the concept of �a harmonious world� � should welcome. It is a mission worthy of the two countries with the most extraordinary potential for shaping our collective future.
The writer was President Carter�s national security adviser. This article is based on a speech in Beijing this week |
A reasonably good article, though breathtakingly naive in those places I bolded. |
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Platinumrose
Joined: 08 Jan 2009
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| Posted: Fri Jan 16, 2009 6:47 pm Post subject: |
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What is China's dreamvision of itself as a world power, not to mention its dreamvision of the world it would like to create?
Britain and America dreamed of constitutional, liberal democracies and/or free trade, in a capitalist world. Of what does Beijing dream...? |
As the centre of the universe. I`m currently in China and it doesn`t have idealistic goals like democracy, transparency, civil liberties the way we have back in the UK.
I`m curious to see where the world`s largest democracy, India`s position will be in the world. She will most certainly be the most populous nation on earth. |
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caniff
Joined: 03 Feb 2004
Location: All over the map
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| Posted: Fri Jan 16, 2009 6:50 pm Post subject: |
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| For some reason I'm more comfortable with Indian ascendancy. Call me crazy. |
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