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mises
Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired
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 Posted: Thu Sep 18, 2008 8:29 pm Post subject: |
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| Anyways. To answer the question in the OP. No. It fucking has not. Thread done. Don't believe everything you read in the newspapers. |
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mises
Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired
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| Posted: Fri Jan 16, 2009 6:25 am Post subject: |
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| mindmetoo wrote: |
| mises wrote: |
If by "this" you mean "sub prime" you're right. We don't talk about "sub prime" now, because those of us who follow these issues now call it a credit crises or credit crunch.
But if you want to be on the record that we won't be talking about the credit crunch in 6 months, I'll go on the record and bet that I'll be bumping this thread in 6 months to demonstrate that now (then) we are still about 6 months away from the end of the crises and several years before a return to healthy economic growth, with independent data from McKinsey. And I define "talking about this" as the crises not having ended at all. |
That's fine. 6 months from now (February 1) we (front page media) won't be talking about the credit crisis. |
...
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123208924493289701.html
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Bank of America Swings to a Loss
Bank of America Corp. swung to a fourth-quarter loss as provisions for credit-losses nearly tripled, while the company showed why it needed further help from the government to support its acquisition of Merrill Lynch, whose preliminary loss was $15.31 billion. |
..
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123208911137089357.html
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Citigroup Posts Loss, Splits Up Company
Citigroup Inc. reported an $8.29 billion net loss for the fourth quarter, putting the year's red ink at $18.72 billion, as the company said it will reorganize into two business lines focused on banking and other financial services. |
We're getting close to that 6 month deadline.
Also, from earlier in the thread.. I said the GDP growth numbers were garbage and the economy was in decline. I was right. NBER has since gone back and revised them into negative territory. |
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mises
Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired
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Thunndarr
Joined: 30 Sep 2003
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| Posted: Fri Jan 16, 2009 7:07 am Post subject: |
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Great bump Mises. I just read this thread from the beginning. Very bad ass.
"I'm going to bump this thread in 6 months just to show you what an ignorant douche you really are." (Paraphrased) Brilliant. |
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mises
Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired
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| Posted: Fri Jan 16, 2009 7:20 am Post subject: |
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| In truth, I know why MM2 responded the way he did. This site is overflowing with end-timers, conspiracy theorists and the like. Generally, the mainstream is such because it marginalizes the wacko's. My opinions were (slightly) out of the mainstream (at least the big newspapers), and MM2 worked with the assumption that ergo I must cut from the same cloth as those with whom he typically battles. For example, I'm critical of the Fed, but don't see it as a Jewish conspiracy. Just bad policy. But those who are critical of the fed on Dave's tend towards the Jew-conspiracy type. |
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kotakji
Joined: 23 Oct 2006
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| Posted: Fri Jan 16, 2009 11:56 am Post subject: |
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I must admit Mises that your assessment of the current situation seems a lot more honest then some of the people decrying the end of days on these boards. Its one thing to stick ones head in the sand and say nothing is wrong, its another to say that XYZ sign signals the collapse of modern society and that were all going to be wearing feed bags for cloths in a year. Lets be honest, a recession or even a depression is not the end of the world and in fact can be quite a healthy thing in the long run. In fact, bad economic times yield great opportunities for those people who can calmly and rationally analyze the situation and make intelligent decisions.
PS Out of curiosity did you get your screen name from Ludwig Von Mises? I ran across his name a few months back when I was looking into gold standard proponents and was just curious. |
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Pluto
Joined: 19 Dec 2006
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| Posted: Fri Jan 16, 2009 12:08 pm Post subject: |
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| The housing crisis hasn't past yet. There is far too much paper (SIVs, CDO and other mortgage backed securities) out there related to the real-estate market which we can't get a definite value because of meddling by the government and the federal reserve. The fed also seems happy to take all of the 'bad' assets and dump them on the taxpayer's balance sheet all while printing money ad infinitum. The money supply has doubled since last September. All the while there seems to be a new bubble forming. Where will of this take us? Who knows? |
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mindmetoo
Joined: 02 Feb 2004
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| Posted: Fri Jan 16, 2009 2:21 pm Post subject: |
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Tiger Beer wrote:
I was under the impression it was still just getting started. I think we have a LONG WAYS to go before it straightens itself out.
I wrote at the end of August:
I predict in 6 months we won't be talking about this. I'm on the record.
I was going to revisit this thread at the end of January. I'm glad someone bumped it to save me the trouble. It's the new year, six months have passed (roughly) and I'm wrong. I was wrong. I was very wrong. I admit I'm wrong. By a long shot.
I guess I could argue sub prime isn't in the headlines anymore. As it's been replaced by far worse  |
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caniff
Joined: 03 Feb 2004
Location: All over the map
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| Posted: Fri Jan 16, 2009 2:57 pm Post subject: |
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MM2 was man enough to admit his boo-boo, but it still sucks that he was wrong. I and billions of others wish he had been correct.
I've read reports that even up until 2011 there'll still be crap mortgage loans being flushed out of the system. Yay. |
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mises
Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired
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| Posted: Fri Jan 16, 2009 3:29 pm Post subject: |
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| Cheers MM2. Sorry for the cussing... |
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mindmetoo
Joined: 02 Feb 2004
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| Posted: Fri Jan 16, 2009 5:22 pm Post subject: |
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| mises wrote: |
| Cheers MM2. Sorry for the cussing... |
No probs. Thank you for being gracious in victory. I did read what you wrote up there about given all conspiracy nuts and deniers that it is easy to confuse someone who is against the fed on rational grounds as a conspiracy nut.
As I've noted in a couple threads (eg Trevor's revisionist thread), I don't debate to prove myself right or be right. I debate to have my ideas challenged and prompted to figure out how we know what we know. My ideas about the resilience of the banking and investment system were wrong. |
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mises
Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired
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| Posted: Fri Jan 16, 2009 6:10 pm Post subject: |
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| kotakji wrote: |
| PS Out of curiosity did you get your screen name from Ludwig Von Mises? I ran across his name a few months back when I was looking into gold standard proponents and was just curious. |
Yeah, LVMises. I'm all about the Austrian "school" (I hate that term) of economics. It is my opinion that the Austrians have the best tool-kit for explaining why we're here. We'll see if their criticisms of the proposed Keynesian solutions are appropriate over the next couple years.
The two most useful sites on the Austrians are:
mises.org
fee.org
But I think they have the absolutely worst public relations. In Asia the Austrian school is becoming very common and almost prestigious. I met many sophisticated and wealthy Chinese who referred to themselves as "Austrians". These were leaders. But mises.org is a hot bed of reactionary right-wing hardcore libertarians. Anarchists, really. And that is unfortunate. I've attended a few gatherings of Austrians and been really embarrassed at the crowd. Lots of bow ties and (I assume) virginal dorks. |
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caniff
Joined: 03 Feb 2004
Location: All over the map
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| Posted: Fri Jan 16, 2009 6:18 pm Post subject: |
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| mises wrote: |
| a hot bed of reactionary right-wing hardcore libertarian..virginal dorks. |
That paints quite the picture. |
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kotakji
Joined: 23 Oct 2006
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| Posted: Fri Jan 16, 2009 6:23 pm Post subject: |
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| mises wrote: |
But I think they have the absolutely worst public relations. In Asia the Austrian school is becoming very common and almost prestigious. I met many sophisticated and wealthy Chinese who referred to themselves as "Austrians". These were leaders. But mises.org is a hot bed of reactionary right-wing hardcore libertarians. Anarchists, really. And that is unfortunate. I've attended a few gatherings of Austrians and been really embarrassed at the crowd. Lots of bow ties and (I assume) virginal dorks. |
Do you have any suggested reading? As I said I did an admittedly unscientific few hours reading up about the Austrians and aside from the looneys you mentioned, most of the stuff I read seemed so far aloft in theory that I was having trouble seeing politically feasible solutions. |
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mises
Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired
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| Posted: Fri Jan 16, 2009 6:27 pm Post subject: |
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Yeah... I'll warn you, Mises is possibly the most boring writer ever. I'm just heading out now but will compile a list on Sunday night or Monday..
For now, this econlib podcast on the Austrians is fair and accessible for someone new to the ideas.
http://www.econtalk.org/archives/2009/01/boettke_on_the.html |
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