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NAVFC
Joined: 10 May 2006
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Ya-ta Boy
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994
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 Posted: Sun Feb 01, 2009 2:39 pm Post subject: |
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| While I don't think a war is at all likely, I can see them provoking a big incident in the Yellow Sea like in '02 or sending down armed infiltrators like before 2000. Those, or something equally upsetting and headline-grabbing, are quite possible. The one that strikes me as particularly 'useful' is snagging a handful of S. Korean troops inside the DMZ and holding them hostage. |
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NAVFC
Joined: 10 May 2006
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| Posted: Sun Feb 01, 2009 7:20 pm Post subject: |
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| Ya-ta Boy wrote: |
| While I don't think a war is at all likely, I can see them provoking a big incident in the Yellow Sea like in '02 or sending down armed infiltrators like before 2000. Those, or something equally upsetting and headline-grabbing, are quite possible. The one that strikes me as particularly 'useful' is snagging a handful of S. Korean troops inside the DMZ and holding them hostage. |
If that happens though I can't imagine the new South Korean President, who isn't a PyongYang puppet like Roh, taking that sitting down. |
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Captain Corea
Joined: 28 Feb 2005
Location: Seoul
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| Posted: Sun Feb 01, 2009 9:07 pm Post subject: |
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| NAVFC wrote: |
| Ya-ta Boy wrote: |
| While I don't think a war is at all likely, I can see them provoking a big incident in the Yellow Sea like in '02 or sending down armed infiltrators like before 2000. Those, or something equally upsetting and headline-grabbing, are quite possible. The one that strikes me as particularly 'useful' is snagging a handful of S. Korean troops inside the DMZ and holding them hostage. |
If that happens though I can't imagine the new South Korean President, who isn't a PyongYang puppet like Roh, taking that sitting down. |
What's he going to do?
He doesn't have popular support - and if he responded aggressively, he'd lose the 20% he does have.
The best he could muster is to win the engagement and make the DPRK think twice about another one.
The worst, is to get drawn into a prolonged tug-of-war. |
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NAVFC
Joined: 10 May 2006
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| Posted: Sun Feb 01, 2009 10:13 pm Post subject: |
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| Captain Corea wrote: |
| NAVFC wrote: |
| Ya-ta Boy wrote: |
| While I don't think a war is at all likely, I can see them provoking a big incident in the Yellow Sea like in '02 or sending down armed infiltrators like before 2000. Those, or something equally upsetting and headline-grabbing, are quite possible. The one that strikes me as particularly 'useful' is snagging a handful of S. Korean troops inside the DMZ and holding them hostage. |
If that happens though I can't imagine the new South Korean President, who isn't a PyongYang puppet like Roh, taking that sitting down. |
What's he going to do?
He doesn't have popular support - and if he responded aggressively, he'd lose the 20% he does have.
The best he could muster is to win the engagement and make the DPRK think twice about another one.
The worst, is to get drawn into a prolonged tug-of-war. |
So? If the DPRK attacked He would be able to easily rally support. Attacks on a nation tend to rally its people behind its leader, so if the NorKos attack south he could easily rally the people behind him to retaliate.
Look at 9-11. Before 9-11 Bush had low support, people found him to be dumb. The US was attacked..an WALLAH! Bush is like a god and if you dont support him your labelled a traitor at that point. |
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Captain Corea
Joined: 28 Feb 2005
Location: Seoul
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| Posted: Sun Feb 01, 2009 10:34 pm Post subject: |
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I'm guessing you didn't live here in 2002. |
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Ya-ta Boy
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994
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| Posted: Mon Feb 02, 2009 2:27 am Post subject: |
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| So? If the DPRK attacked He would be able to easily rally support. |
I'm mostly with CC on this. However, I'll bet 2MB would actually go to the funeral of the dead sailors (or whoever) unlike the previous incumbent. The Lefties here (PD Diary types) would blame Lee for the incident and very likely make it stick with the noisy segment of the population.
Take it sitting down? Ummm, do you call paying ransom to terrorists 'sitting down'. Then yes, he'd take it sitting down.
Clinton is due here in a week or so. That time-frame would be the likely deadline for something provocative to happen. |
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Ya-ta Boy
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994
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| Posted: Mon Feb 02, 2009 2:30 am Post subject: |
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| By the way, other targets of opportunity include snatching a couple of fishing boats and shooting down a plane. Another missle across Japan's bow is also possible, as is another fizzled nuke test--and maybe this one won't fizzle. |
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Ya-ta Boy
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994
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| Posted: Mon Feb 02, 2009 7:27 pm Post subject: |
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SEOUL (Reuters) � North Korea appears to be preparing to test-launch its longest range ballistic missile, media reports said on Tuesday, stoking tensions just days after the reclusive state warned that the Korean peninsula was on the brink of war...
South Korea's Yonhap news agency and Japan's Sankei Shimbun cited unnamed government sources as saying the North had been moving equipment used in the launch of its Taepodong-2 missile, which the test-fired in July 2006 only to see it fizzle and destruct a few seconds after leaving the launch pad.
A train carrying a large object had left a factory and was headed to the site of a newly constructed launch pad on the North's west coast, Yonhap quoted an unnamed South Korean government source as saying.
"The object is suspected as being a Taepodong-2," he said.
It will take North Korea at least a month or two to actually launch a Taepodong-2, the Sankei cited an unnamed Japanese government source as saying.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090203/ts_nm/us_korea_north |
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