| View previous topic :: View next topic |
| Author |
Message |
bucheon bum
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
|
 Posted: Fri Feb 06, 2009 12:58 am Post subject: Japan's Big-Works Spending Lesson for US |
 |
|
Ny times article
| Quote: |
| Now, as the Obama administration embarks on a similar path, proposing to spend more than $820 billion to stimulate the sagging American economy, many economists are taking a fresh look at Japan�s troubled experience. While Japan is not exactly comparable to the United States � especially as a late developer with a history of heavy state investment in infrastructure � economists say it can still offer important lessons about the pitfalls, and chances for success, of a stimulus package in an advanced economy. |
more fuel for both sides of the stimulus plan. |
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
Joo Rip Gwa Rhhee
Joined: 25 May 2003
|
| Posted: Fri Feb 06, 2009 6:58 am Post subject: |
|
|
Alternative energy will give the US as much a boost as the internet did.
It would stimulate the economy, rejuvenate the US system and make the US more secure .
Three for one.
Spend 5 TRILLION to make it happen. Better to be a slave to debt than the enemy. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Neil
Joined: 02 Jan 2004
Location: Tokyo
|
| Posted: Fri Feb 06, 2009 7:03 am Post subject: |
|
|
| Joo Rip Gwa Rhhee wrote: |
Alternative energy will give the US as much a boost as the internet did.
It would stimulate the economy, rejuvenate the US system and make the US more secure .
Three for one.
Spend 5 TRILLION to make it happen. Better to be a slave to debt than the enemy. |
I totally agree, but the thing is people have been saying the same stuff as you for the last 20 years and nothing has happened. Why is that? I have no idea, are they holding back ideas? aren't the funds available yet? I think for most folks with alternative energy you are preaching to the converted but I don't understand the snail like progress, are there any science minded chaps on here who could elaborate? |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
mises
Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired
|
| Posted: Fri Feb 06, 2009 8:02 am Post subject: |
|
|
| Neil wrote: |
| Joo Rip Gwa Rhhee wrote: |
Alternative energy will give the US as much a boost as the internet did.
It would stimulate the economy, rejuvenate the US system and make the US more secure .
Three for one.
Spend 5 TRILLION to make it happen. Better to be a slave to debt than the enemy. |
I totally agree, but the thing is people have been saying the same stuff as you for the last 20 years and nothing has happened. Why is that? I have no idea, are they holding back ideas? |
It is because of the "commodity depression" in the 80's and 90's. Prices were so low that looking for other sources made no sense.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Commodities_Depression |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
visitorq
Joined: 11 Jan 2008
|
| Posted: Sat Feb 07, 2009 12:29 am Post subject: |
|
|
The burst of the Japanese bubble was the biggest financial collapse in history by quite a large margin. Public spending is the only thing that kept the country afloat. The bad debts were simply ignored (and undisclosed by banks) and life basically continued on as before, minus any growth (stayed at zero for a decade+).
The current financial crisis around the world and in the US is similar, except that American banks must disclose their (huge) losses by law. If anything this means public spending is even more crucial for the US now than it was for Japan in the early 90's, because these disclosed losses cannot be simply ignored. I agree with the article that the ~$trillion or so on the table now won't be enough. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
ontheway
Joined: 24 Aug 2005
Location: Somewhere under the rainbow...
|
| Posted: Sat Feb 07, 2009 7:27 am Post subject: |
|
|
From the article:
| Quote: |
| In the end, say economists, it was not public works but an expensive cleanup of the debt-ridden banking system, combined with growing exports to China and the United States, that brought a close to Japan�s Lost Decade. This has led many to conclude that spending did little more than sink Japan deeply into debt, leaving an enormous tax burden for future generations. |
Japanese economists think the government spending was a waste:
| Quote: |
| Among ordinary Japanese, the spending is widely disparaged for having turned the nation into a public-works-based welfare state and making regional economies dependent on Tokyo for jobs. Much of the blame has fallen on the Liberal Democratic Party, which has long used government spending to grease rural vote-buying machines that help keep the party in power. |
| Quote: |
| Dr. Ihori of the University of Tokyo did a survey of public works in the 1990s, concluding that the spending created almost no additional economic growth. Instead of spreading beneficial ripple effects across the economy, he found that the spending actually led to declines in business investment by driving out private investors. He also said job creation was too narrowly focused in the construction industry in rural areas to give much benefit to the overall economy. |
Finally it is important to note that when the Ponzi economists (all keynsian and other socialists are brain dead advocates of governmental ponzi schemes that always fail) spend a trillion or so and then seem to measure a trillion plus a little bit in economic activity, they think this is a gain.
But, the boneheads fail to include the debt and the cost of carrying that debt which will be more than double the trillion plus a little bit, AND if they had let the private sector invest the money, the return in economic growth is always several times the trillion.
Thus, we can see that government spending and "pump priming" ALWAYS results in LESS economic growth or an economic decline. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
mises
Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired
|
| Posted: Sat Feb 07, 2009 7:50 am Post subject: |
|
|
| ontheway wrote: |
But, the boneheads fail to include the debt and the cost of carrying that debt which will be more than double the trillion plus a little bit, AND if they had let the private sector invest the money, the return in economic growth is always several times the trillion.
Thus, we can see that government spending and "pump priming" ALWAYS results in LESS economic growth or an economic decline. |
Of course! The trillion spent today is a trillion less that can be spent tomorrow PLUS financing charges. "Economists", especially of the Keynesian variety, have a totally unsophisticated understanding of debt. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
asylum seeker
Joined: 22 Jul 2007
Location: On your computer screen.
|
| Posted: Sun Feb 08, 2009 9:00 am Post subject: |
|
|
| Joo Rip Gwa Rhhee wrote: |
Alternative energy will give the US as much a boost as the internet did.
It would stimulate the economy, rejuvenate the US system and make the US more secure .
Three for one.
Spend 5 TRILLION to make it happen. Better to be a slave to debt than the enemy. |
I agree. China will continue to support US debt for a long time anyway because it needs American consumption for growth. I wish the leaders could see this. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
ontheway
Joined: 24 Aug 2005
Location: Somewhere under the rainbow...
|
| Posted: Sun Feb 08, 2009 10:18 am Post subject: |
|
|
No country. No group of individuals. No one can support the deficits the US and the other nations of the world are running up.
China is in a depression now as well. It is likely to be hidden for a while, but it's a worldwide depression in the making. The Ponzi scheme has run out of victims to sign up on the bottom.
The Ponzi economists (keynesian socialists, fabian socialists, fascists socialists) blew up the bubble, bigger and bigger. It has burst. They have fooled millions of people. And still fools follow them. Brainless, boneheaded boobs!
(It reminds me of the movie, The Poseidon Adventure. Most of the people followed some charismatic, clueless fool ... to their demise. Only a few brave, intelligent adventurers went the other way ... to be rescued in the end.)
The Federal Reserve has run a gigantic, worldwide Ponzi scheme since 1913. They caused the 1st Great Depression, all the recessions in between and now, our 2nd Great Depression.
The Ponzi economists have got hold of the world's governments and will make things worse. Bush/Obama are following the Hoover/FDR script pretty consistently. The government in the US and others around the world are making this depression THAT THEY CAUSED, worse and worse.
Of course, not all of these people are stupid. They know they will wreck the economy and destroy people's lifesavings, wealth, families and lives. But they are in the process of looting the peoples of every nation. They will impoverish the masses, decimate the middle classes, and fill the pockets of their powerful supporters, allies and friends. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
visitorq
Joined: 11 Jan 2008
|
| Posted: Sun Feb 08, 2009 10:46 am Post subject: |
|
|
| ^ yeah using finance as a tool for economic growth is bad. We should all just be subsistence farmers instead. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
ontheway
Joined: 24 Aug 2005
Location: Somewhere under the rainbow...
|
| Posted: Sun Feb 08, 2009 10:52 am Post subject: |
|
|
| visitorq wrote: |
| ^ yeah using finance as a tool for economic growth is bad. We should all just be subsistence farmers instead. |
If you keep following the Ponzi economists, you will get your wish. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
visitorq
Joined: 11 Jan 2008
|
| Posted: Sun Feb 08, 2009 11:03 am Post subject: |
|
|
Maybe, but the good times sure were good.  Anyway, once this so-called Ponzi scheme runs out, we can just start a new one - problem solved. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Jandar
Joined: 11 Jun 2008
|
| Posted: Sun Feb 08, 2009 3:44 pm Post subject: |
|
|
I always listen to economists that claim Hoover ran the economy.
The cost of tinfoil hats is on the rise. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
mises
Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired
|
| Posted: Sun Feb 08, 2009 3:48 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| visitorq wrote: |
| ^ yeah using finance as a tool for economic growth is bad. We should all just be subsistence farmers instead. |
Either subsistence farming or the FIRE economy? |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
visitorq
Joined: 11 Jan 2008
|
| Posted: Tue Feb 10, 2009 3:17 am Post subject: |
|
|
| mises wrote: |
| visitorq wrote: |
| ^ yeah using finance as a tool for economic growth is bad. We should all just be subsistence farmers instead. |
Either subsistence farming or the FIRE economy? |
I wonder, where would the US economy be today without it? I think the issue was there being too much risk and bad judgement (started with the subprime mortgage crisis), not the basic principles of the FIRE economy itself. I also don't see how the Fed ties into it (he was ranting about about Ponzi schemes and I kinda lost track); of course it's painful to have to bail out the irresponsible people who started this mess, but other than bailing the financial industry out I don't really see an alternative. I also think we should bail out manufacturing sector, with conditions attached.
Anyway, you're obviously much versed in economic theory than I am mises, but I can't help but buy into the 'too big to fail' argument. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
|
FAQ
Search
Memberlist
Usergroups
Register
Profile
Log in to check your private messages
Log in
