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mises
Joined: 05 Nov 2007 Location: retired
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Posted: Wed Feb 04, 2009 3:31 pm Post subject: |
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Kuros wrote: |
Bear Sterns was leveraged 33-to-1 against liquid assets when it collapsed. |
Have I mentioned that Bank of America is leveraged 132-1? Citi 88-1? I might have, once or twice.
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...the total leverage ratios (on- and off-book assets and exposure divided by tangible equity) for the two biggest US banks were 88:1 for Citibank and 134:1 for Bank of America. |
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/85432b32-cd32-11dd-9905-000077b07658.html?nclick_check=1
My mistake. 134-1.
And why are economists dealing with what is fundamentally an accounting issue? |
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mises
Joined: 05 Nov 2007 Location: retired
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Posted: Thu Feb 05, 2009 7:16 am Post subject: |
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The reasons why his initial moves have been so bad are seeping out:
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Feb. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Paul Volcker has grown increasingly frustrated over delays in setting up the economic advisory group President Barack Obama picked the former Federal Reserve chairman to lead, people familiar with the matter said.
Volcker, 81, blames Obama�s National Economic Council Director Lawrence Summers for slowing down the effort to organize the panel of outside advisers, the people said. Summers isn�t regularly inviting Volcker to White House meetings and hasn�t shown interest in collaborating on policy or sharing potential solutions to the economic crisis, they said.
While Summers, a former Treasury secretary, oversees the official White House economic policy apparatus, Obama tapped Volcker for a new Economic Recovery Advisory Board charged with injecting fresh, outside ideas into policy debates.
�When you have two strong, highly accomplished, driven people, it�s not unusual that there is going to be a battle over turf,� said James Cox, a professor at Duke University Law School in Durham, North Carolina. �I would hope that Obama doesn�t lose Volcker�s counsel. They need someone to help them think outside the box.�
The contretemps shows the difficulties Volcker, perhaps the world�s most respected economist, may encounter as an outside adviser charged with providing policy alternatives to the president, said William Silber, a finance professor at New York University�s business school.
Outsider�s Disadvantage
Volcker �is not in the White House and he doesn�t have a bureaucracy to command,� Silber said. �It puts him at a disadvantage.�
After testifying at a congressional hearing yesterday, Volcker declined to respond to questions. His office said he doesn�t grant interviews.
Obama named Volcker on Nov. 26 to head the new panel, saying he wanted an outside voice to keep administration policy planning from becoming �too insular.�
Tensions between the two could hamper Obama�s efforts to get consensus on how to combat the financial crisis at home and reshape the international banking system. While Summers has a West Wing office, Volcker�s group is supposed to scrutinize economic and regulatory policies and their impact on average Americans.
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http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aaLzJZKNcc6Y&
I looked at Summer's wikipedia page and found this:
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During the California energy crisis of 2000, then-Treasury Secretary Summers teamed with Alan Greenspan and Enron executive Kenneth Lay to lecture California Governor Gray Davis on the causes of the crisis, explaining that the problem was excessive government regulation.[4] Under the advice of Kenneth Lay, Summers urged Davis to relax California's environmental standards in order to reassure the markets. [5] It was later conclusively revealed that Enron traders were the cause of the California electricity crisis |
Greenspan AND Ken Lay??
Summers is one of the men most responsible for this crises:
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In 1998, an obscure federal agency, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, raised the prospect of regulating the burgeoning market in complex financial instruments, which then had a notional value of $28.7 trillion. Today the notional value is $531.2 trillion, according to the International Swaps and Derivatives Association.
The nation�s leading financial officials � Levitt, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, Secretary of the Treasury Robert Rubin, and his deputy Lawrence Summers � pummeled the proposal, saying it was dangerous to even discuss the idea. Led by Rubin, Levitt and Greenspan, the Clinton White House instead proposed a modest set of reforms. Months later, Clinton Administration officials walked away from their own recommendations, concluding the market could be best managed by the financial industry. |
http://www.propublica.org/feature/former-clinton-official-says-democrats-obama-advisers-share-blame-for-marke |
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mises
Joined: 05 Nov 2007 Location: retired
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ontheway
Joined: 24 Aug 2005 Location: Somewhere under the rainbow...
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mises
Joined: 05 Nov 2007 Location: retired
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Posted: Sat Feb 07, 2009 8:19 am Post subject: |
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http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e9381c06-f325-11dd-abe6-0000779fd2ac.html
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The China syndrome: it's our fault they don't trust us
Did Washington think it could allow US investment banks to carpet bomb Asia with financial mini-bombs and escape the fallout?
In Hong Kong alone, $2bn of Lehman's principal-destroying mini-bonds were sold. Most US investment banks joined in the insanity. Investors - including officers at nosebleed-high levels in Japan, Macao, Hong Kong, Singapore, and mainland China - have been burned as their triple-A investments were wiped out.
US investment banks were not the victims of bear raids; they were fundamentally unsound. Investment banks and hedge funds turned financial risk into financial crack with leverage. The risky overrated debt had no upside and lots of downside. Leverage in the form of massive borrowing and credit derivatives made the fall swift, painful and often fatal for equity investors in investment banks and hedge funds.
Financiers and structured finance professionals were aware of the negative potential of risky loans. Yet they took it even further. The risky tranches - those that any investment banker worth their salt knew were write-offs - were used to create other packages that their buddies "managed" in one fund, while shorting in their hedge funds.
There were no black swans or swans of any colour involved. Like Black Bart, the 19th-century Californian stage coach robber, Wall Street bankers made off with the loot without firing a shot. They were enabled by Washington overseers and financial regulators who - when not beneficiaries of the good times - behaved like ostriches.
Meanwhile, news of the fact that no one in the US has been brought to justice has not escaped notice. It is possible that Chinese banks are being less co-operative with the US because Wall Street scammed them.
There is hope, but the only way out of this is a return to sound financial principles, which will include cleaning up our mess.
At the Davos conference, Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan chief executive, sounded like Warren Buffett or Charlie Munger (or Janet Tavakoli) when he remarked: "Some really stupid things were done by American banks and American investment banks. To policymakers, I say: Where were they?" |
This is one of the most honest explanations of our crises I've seen to date. |
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Joo Rip Gwa Rhhee

Joined: 25 May 2003
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Posted: Wed Feb 11, 2009 7:12 am Post subject: |
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Embrace hyperinflation. It will be easier to accept that way. |
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ontheway
Joined: 24 Aug 2005 Location: Somewhere under the rainbow...
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Posted: Wed Feb 11, 2009 7:19 am Post subject: |
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Joo Rip Gwa Rhhee wrote: |
Embrace hyperinflation. It will be easier to accept that way. |
This, of course, is the equivalent of the old expression: "Just lay back and enjoy it.
But, that about sums it up. The Bush/Obama Ponzi plan is just a way to allow the Federal Reserve to go on financially raping the American people. |
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Joo Rip Gwa Rhhee

Joined: 25 May 2003
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Posted: Wed Feb 11, 2009 9:28 am Post subject: |
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The US ought to buy up trillions of dollars in oil at this price then hyperinflate the economy which will drive oil back up and then sell the oil to China.
Just a suggestion. |
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RJjr

Joined: 17 Aug 2006 Location: Turning on a Lamp
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Posted: Wed Feb 11, 2009 9:33 am Post subject: |
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We've got to accept that it's going to happen. It's important for people to have a food plan that doesn't involve reliance on a supply chain or counting on Obama coming to the rescue. |
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Ya-ta Boy
Joined: 16 Jan 2003 Location: Established in 1994
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Posted: Wed Feb 11, 2009 2:04 pm Post subject: |
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Joo Rip Gwa Rhhee wrote: |
The US ought to buy up trillions of dollars in oil at this price then hyperinflate the economy which will drive oil back up and then sell the oil to China.
Just a suggestion. |
I like this idea. I like it a lot. It's creative thinking like this that made America great. |
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blade
Joined: 30 Jun 2007
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Posted: Wed Feb 11, 2009 5:20 pm Post subject: |
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Ya-ta Boy wrote: |
Joo Rip Gwa Rhhee wrote: |
The US ought to buy up trillions of dollars in oil at this price then hyperinflate the economy which will drive oil back up and then sell the oil to China.
Just a suggestion. |
I like this idea. I like it a lot. It's creative thinking like this that made America nearly bankrupt. |
Fixed it for you. |
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bucheon bum
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
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Posted: Wed Feb 11, 2009 6:16 pm Post subject: |
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blade wrote: |
Ya-ta Boy wrote: |
Joo Rip Gwa Rhhee wrote: |
The US ought to buy up trillions of dollars in oil at this price then hyperinflate the economy which will drive oil back up and then sell the oil to China.
Just a suggestion. |
I like this idea. I like it a lot. It's creative thinking like this that made America nearly bankrupt. |
Fixed it for you. |
guess you missed his sarcasm. |
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Jeff's Cigarettes

Joined: 27 Mar 2007
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Posted: Thu Feb 12, 2009 2:05 am Post subject: |
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mises wrote: |
http://www.salon.com/politics/war_room/2009/02/06/obama_speech/index.html
A video of Obama talking up his plan is at the bottom of the above post.
Good god, he is good on the stump. |
No kidding. I notice he doesn�t appear and speak before groups of people who are actually going to pay for his �Swindle Us� package. I also see where the tax credits for people who might actually spend money on homes and new car purchases have been dropped from The Plan From The Man What Am. |
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mises
Joined: 05 Nov 2007 Location: retired
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blade
Joined: 30 Jun 2007
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Posted: Thu Feb 12, 2009 10:54 pm Post subject: |
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Failure to Rise
By PAUL KRUGMAN
Published: February 12, 2009
By any normal political standards, this week�s Congressional agreement on an economic stimulus package was a great victory for President Obama. He got more or less what he asked for: almost $800 billion to rescue the economy, with most of the money allocated to spending rather than tax cuts. Break out the Champagne!
Or maybe not. These aren�t normal times, so normal political standards don�t apply: Mr. Obama�s victory feels more than a bit like defeat. The stimulus bill looks helpful but inadequate, especially when combined with a disappointing plan for rescuing the banks. And the politics of the stimulus fight have made nonsense of Mr. Obama�s postpartisan dreams.
Let�s start with the politics.
One might have expected Republicans to act at least slightly chastened in these early days of the Obama administration, given both their drubbing in the last two elections and the economic debacle of the past eight years.
But it�s now clear that the party�s commitment to deep voodoo � enforced, in part, by pressure groups that stand ready to run primary challengers against heretics � is as strong as ever. In both the House and the Senate, the vast majority of Republicans rallied behind the idea that the appropriate response to the abject failure of the Bush administration�s tax cuts is more Bush-style tax cuts.
And the rhetorical response of conservatives to the stimulus plan � which will, it�s worth bearing in mind, cost substantially less than either the Bush administration�s $2 trillion in tax cuts or the $1 trillion and counting spent in Iraq � has bordered on the deranged.
It�s �generational theft,� said Senator John McCain, just a few days after voting for tax cuts that would, over the next decade, have cost about four times as much.
It�s �destroying my daughters� future. It is like sitting there watching my house ransacked by a gang of thugs,� said Arnold Kling of the Cato Institute.
And the ugliness of the political debate matters because it raises doubts about the Obama administration�s ability to come back for more if, as seems likely, the stimulus bill proves inadequate.
For while Mr. Obama got more or less what he asked for, he almost certainly didn�t ask for enough. We�re probably facing the worst slump since the Great Depression. The Congressional Budget Office, not usually given to hyperbole, predicts that over the next three years there will be a $2.9 trillion gap between what the economy could produce and what it will actually produce. And $800 billion, while it sounds like a lot of money, isn�t nearly enough to bridge that chasm.
Officially, the administration insists that the plan is adequate to the economy�s need. But few economists agree. And it�s widely believed that political considerations led to a plan that was weaker and contains more tax cuts than it should have � that Mr. Obama compromised in advance in the hope of gaining broad bipartisan support. We�ve just seen how well that worked.
Now, the chances that the fiscal stimulus will prove adequate would be higher if it were accompanied by an effective financial rescue, one that would unfreeze the credit markets and get money moving again. But the long-awaited announcement of the Obama administration�s plans on that front, which also came this week, landed with a dull thud.
The plan sketched out by Tim Geithner, the Treasury secretary, wasn�t bad, exactly. What it was, instead, was vague. It left everyone trying to figure out where the administration was really going. Will those public-private partnerships end up being a covert way to bail out bankers at taxpayers� expense? Or will the required �stress test� act as a back-door route to temporary bank nationalization (the solution favored by a growing number of economists, myself included)? Nobody knows.
Over all, the effect was to kick the can down the road. And that�s not good enough. So far the Obama administration�s response to the economic crisis is all too reminiscent of Japan in the 1990s: a fiscal expansion large enough to avert the worst, but not enough to kick-start recovery; support for the banking system, but a reluctance to force banks to face up to their losses. It�s early days yet, but we�re falling behind the curve.
And I don�t know about you, but I�ve got a sick feeling in the pit of my stomach � a feeling that America just isn�t rising to the greatest economic challenge in 70 years. The best may not lack all conviction, but they seem alarmingly willing to settle for half-measures. And the worst are, as ever, full of passionate intensity, oblivious to the grotesque failure of their doctrine in practice.
There�s still time to turn this around. But Mr. Obama has to be stronger looking forward. Otherwise, the verdict on this crisis might be that no, we can�t. |
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