Korean Job Discussion Forums

[Janny]

Recently, there's been some talk of North Korea "upping the ante". Anyone who's been here for a while knows that it always leads nowhere. And we all know that the US military is here to keep things under control. But....I still have some questions.

Is it possible for North Korea to bomb Seoul? Do our forces have pre-emptive capabilities to completely disable (before KJI presses the button) or at least "block" a missile that is already en route?

I may sound naive, but honestly I would love to know. I'm sure everyone living in South Korea would. Are we protected???

And if the worst happens (a bomb drops on Seoul)...what's the best course of action?

So far...I have an image of me hijacking a bicycle and riding to the Canadian Embassy with a backpack full of emergency supplies (which I DO have ready...call me paranoid, fine with me). Or paying somebody in American dollars to drive me there. Or hiding out in some building's basement with said backpack, fighting off crazed, ill-prepared wanderers.

Sounds crazy, but please can we have a serious discussion about this? And spare us the "you're just fucked" statements. Understood...but let's imagine you SURVIVE.

[Xuanzang]

Forget the embassies. Get the f out of Seoul and head as south as possible. Nuke - well I hope we become irradiated people with superpowers because radiation poisoning would suck.

[Straphanger]

[inkoreaforgood]

[sarbonn]

Nuclear attack is not the real fear. Artillery is where you should be most concerned. If NK attacks, that's how they're going to do it, and they'll probably do it with chemical weapons as well, so you're not going to have to worry about radiation but you're going to seriously die within minutes of hostilities.

Seoul has been targeted since the 1950s, and the only thing stopping them is the understanding that the US and SK have been targeting them as well.

Artillery will be the first and second responders in this type of a conflict. There pretty much won't be anything left after that.

[Xuanzang]

There`s Patriot missile batteries but we all know how well they worked in Gulf War 1

[Ya-ta Boy]

For the last 50 years the Norks have demonstrated that no matter how perturbed they get at the South, they cannot attack the South without automatically triggering the South--US alliance. That would be suicidal. The Nork leadership is many things, but it is not suicidal.

The media reports they are preparing a missile test sometime in the next month or so. This could be a problem. If it is tested and lands in international waters, no real problem other than demonstrating their abilitiy to shoot missiles. If however the missile lands in South Korean territorial waters it could be taken as an attack. It would be up to the Lee Myung Bak government to decide how to respond. So far, they haven't said a thing about the missile or the threats, which is disturbing a lot of conservatives, many of whom consider the present Minister of Defense to be responsible for the silence--and he was a big player in the request of the previous administration to end the Combined Forces Command (scheduled to end in 2012).

Another possibility is an armed (limited) clash either in the West Sea or inside the DMZ. An artillery barrage across the DMZ is impossible for the reasons mentioned in the previous paragraph. The North is after negotiations that lead to money for them--not full-scale war.

The time to worry begins in 2012 when the CFC is disbanded.

[Jandar]

Best advice:


1. Immediately turn away from the flash

2. Spread your feet apart as far as you can comfortably

3. With your right hand grasp the back of your right knee firmly

4. With your left hand grasp the back of your left knee firmly

5. With both arms pulled on your knees while straining with your legs to resist.

6. Allow your back to bend and stretch with this effort

7. At this point you should be the best position to kiss your ass goodbye.

[shifty]

Hey Janny, what emergency supplies have you readied, pray tell?? Eg, baked beans, opener etc.

[brento1138]

I met a guy who worked for the Korean department of defense. I talked to him a lot about this. He said that in 1986, South Korean intelligence was positive that their military was finally superior to the antiquated North Korean military. If there really was a war, the Norks would be beaten. Imagine highly trained U.S. marines vs. the old World War II infantry. No contest. Think of their massive manpower vs. a single US fighter jet. No contest.

That said, military technology from the 50s can still be deadly and devastating. Like others have said, the main threat isn't the nuclear bomb. It's the artillery and chemical warheads they have had aimed at Seoul for decades. They're dug in, and wouldn't easily be stopped. The Norks can do MAJOR damage, so bad, that they could kill everyone in Seoul in about 15 - 30 minutes. And in Seoul, there is nowhere to hide. It would be the end. Say your prayers.

Although my friend from the defense dept. is 99.9999999% sure that the LEADERS of North Korea will NEVER attack, as they are not dumb, there is a small possibility a renegade general will launch his own strike, hoping that his attack will spur a retaliation that will lead to the end of the ruling party there. But most generals are happy enough with their exuberant "gifts" from Kim Jong to not go "renegade."

So, we probably won't see anything go down. Just a lot of chest-beating. When NK is weak (as they are now) the chest-beating will get louder and louder.

And one more thing to remember. And remember it well. ALL of their international politics has NOTHING to do with international politics but EVERYTHING to do with domestic politics. So when you see them saying "We wish to turn Seoul into a raging sea of fire" they are merely putting fear into their own people to keep them in line.

[Fredbob]

Nukes and WMDs aside, it is generally believed that NK has about 11,000 active pieces of artillery aimed at Seoul, if they are at all accurate, they've had more than 10 years to prepare their target packages. I'm not a munitions expert or anything, but I'm pretty sure if NK took the 1st shot, almost every bridge would be gone in about 10 minutes or so. Say goodbye to the subway, bridges, tunnels, highways, powerstations etc..

"Seoul proper comprises 605.39 km� of area, roughly bisected into northern and southern halves by the Han River." (Thanks Wikipedia ) If you estimated that each blast could take out .5km�, that would seem to suggest that they could do the equivalent of carpet bomb the city with one round. Maybe one of our military experts could do a better job with that calculation.

I'm pretty sure that's why you'll get a laugh and a KYAGB comment from most, if you could actually survive the first 15 minutes (it's hard to imagine that you would have better than a 1 in 3 chance of living)how could you really expect to get anywhere, without even considering chemical or nuclear weapons! You might as well just say F-it and think about other things.

When I first got here, I worked in the dead center of Seoul, pretty close to the Blue House, it used to bug me that my students, in their 20s were pretty blase about the whole thing. After a while I realized, why worry about something you have no control about, or try to plan for a situation which is, for most of us, completely unimaginable?

[semi-fly]

At this point in time I don't even think China would be all that thrilled if North Korea decided to play Irradiate the South. If such a thing did occur your best bet is to make sure you're not in Seoul, Pusan or Incheon your best bet would be to in the countryside far from those cities.

Out of curiosity what was it like when the north detonated their underground bomb a few years back?

[buck236]

Here is the battle plan in the event of high intensity conflict (read all out war including large unit action). First of all, anything crossing over the DMZ would be immediately turned into ground beef between all the mines and the fact that both sides have every square inch of the DMZ pre sighted and targeted. It is most likely that the North will be the first to cross the DMZ as they have the manpower to do so. Defensive positions will be taken up all along the DMZ and at other highly defensible locations (to be determined by the terrain as there are no strategic cities north of Seoul). If the attack by the North is repelled then a counter attack by a joint SK/US force will commence, this counterattack will most likely end the hostilities but if it fails then the SK/US force will return to defensive positions. If the North manages to overrun these positions then it is expected that Seoul will fall within a matter of hours (it isn't an easily defendable position). All bridges leading across the Han River will be destroyed to slow any Northern advance. Counterattacks and defending/delaying actions will be taken. If the advance cannot be stopped then the fall back point is Pusan. Truth be told, if the shit hits the fan Pusan is the safest place to be as Seoul will be torn a new one no matter what (Seoul is a soft target with tremendous potential for casualties). I have discussed this with Army officers that have served here in Korea and this is what they told me so I am not just theorizing.

[Jeff's Cigarettes]

If the North wants to attack, I say go for it.

[blissfullyignorant]

I don't know about the Canadian Embassy, but the US Embassy's website has an evacuation plan in case things go down.