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xCustomx
Joined: 06 Jan 2006
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 Posted: Mon Mar 09, 2009 3:51 pm Post subject: |
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�Exports Collapse�
The won will lead a decline in Asian currencies this year as a global recession batters the region�s exports, according to Westpac Banking Corp. The currency will weaken 9.4 percent to 1,710 per dollar by the end of 2009, Westpac forecast.
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Investors are shunning emerging markets amid concern that the global recession will hurt these countries more than bigger economies. A combined $643 million evaporated in the South Korea, Taiwan and Thailand stock markets on March 2 alone, the most in three months, according to Calyon. The MSCI World Index fell 24 percent this year, compared with 14 percent for the MSCI World Index of developed nations.
�The same-old demand won�t come for the next five, 10 years,� said Scott Ainsbury, a money manager at FX Concepts, the world�s largest currency fund at $12 billion. �People may underestimate how far these currencies can fall.� Ainsbury said he�s selling the Taiwan and Singapore dollars and the won.
So far in 2009, the won is the only Asian currency among the 10 worst performers in emerging markets, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
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http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a92NeP7O8ogk
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a5UpN0pvzlEA
I had planned to wait things out until the end of summer, or the end of this year, but if the won is approaching 1700, I'm getting the hell out of here. |
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mistermasan
Joined: 20 Sep 2007
Location: 10+ yrs on Dave's ESL cafe
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| Posted: Mon Mar 09, 2009 4:16 pm Post subject: |
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| anybody who has stuck it out thus far deserves a medal. it is gonna get worse. |
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roadwork
Joined: 24 Nov 2008
Location: Goin' up the country
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| Posted: Mon Mar 09, 2009 4:24 pm Post subject: |
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| I'll be kind of curious to see what will happen if and when the exchange rate gets better, and all of us long timers start emptying out our savings and shipping the money home. Probably nothing. |
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refikaM
Joined: 06 May 2006
Location: Gangwondo
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| Posted: Mon Mar 09, 2009 5:31 pm Post subject: won |
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| On the other thread "The tanking Korean won" another forecaster said the won will improve by summer! Now I ain't no economist, nor do I pretend to even understand much of it.. But who do you believe.. really.. Or should we believe anything? Sit back for the ride I guess... Or bail! But no matter where we are... It's gonna be some kinda ride!! |
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call_the_shots
Joined: 10 Oct 2008
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| Posted: Mon Mar 09, 2009 9:36 pm Post subject: |
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It's 1499 now. I never thought I'd be happy to see a number like that.
http://www.hankyung.com/
Last edited by call_the_shots on Mon Mar 09, 2009 9:38 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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JFuller317
Joined: 10 Oct 2008
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| Posted: Mon Mar 09, 2009 9:37 pm Post subject: |
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| Well, the won is up a lot over the last two days. 1508 right now on xe.com. I don't know if I should hold out for anything better or just wire it all home right now. With my luck it'll be back up to 1575 by tomorrow. |
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roadwork
Joined: 24 Nov 2008
Location: Goin' up the country
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| Posted: Mon Mar 09, 2009 9:53 pm Post subject: |
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| I don't go by any of the conversion sites. I use my bank's home page since that's what I'll get for remittance. I've got 1524 right now. I'm sure it will be back up to 1580 by 4:00 |
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poet13
Joined: 22 Jan 2006
Location: Just over there....throwing lemons.
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| Posted: Mon Mar 09, 2009 10:28 pm Post subject: |
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| I wonder how much it cost to push the won that strong. Agreed that it wont last. I think if it goes down to 1450 though, it would be a good time to sell my won and wait for it to go back up to buy won again. Woo hoo! |
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JFuller317
Joined: 10 Oct 2008
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| Posted: Mon Mar 09, 2009 10:41 pm Post subject: |
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You think this was caused by government intervention and not a natural correction? That doesn't bode well for the future if that's the case.
I agree that at 1450, I'm sending everything home. |
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roadwork
Joined: 24 Nov 2008
Location: Goin' up the country
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| Posted: Mon Mar 09, 2009 10:53 pm Post subject: |
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| JFuller317 wrote: |
You think this was caused by government intervention and not a natural correction? That doesn't bode well for the future if that's the case.
I agree that at 1450, I'm sending everything home. |
I thought about 1450 as well, but I think I'll gamble for it to hit 1350. Always the optimist, right? |
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poet13
Joined: 22 Jan 2006
Location: Just over there....throwing lemons.
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| Posted: Mon Mar 09, 2009 10:56 pm Post subject: |
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I know the "strength" last week was caused by the government flinging a couple of billion dollars into the market. I just assumed that this surprising strength was from the same source. I'll look at the US markets though and see what they did yesterday, but unless there was some wonderful news that somehow didn't make every front page in the world, I will continue to assume the bump is artificial.
It would be nice to skim a few million off the top and buy again when it goes way up.... |
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call_the_shots
Joined: 10 Oct 2008
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| Posted: Mon Mar 09, 2009 11:07 pm Post subject: |
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Intervention seems to be at least one of the factors according to Bloomberg.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=aBQX.fMBIl.k
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South Korea�s won rose for a third day versus the dollar, extending its rebound from an 11-year low, as overseas investors bought more local shares than they sold.
The advance, the biggest in almost two months, was also supported by speculation policy makers sold dollars to bolster the currency, Asia�s worst performer this year. The Kospi stock index gained 1.9 percent, climbing in tandem with equity benchmarks across most of the region�s emerging markets.
�There are offshore players who are selling dollars for the won after an excessive overshoot in the exchange rate in recent weeks,� said Roh Sang Chil, a currency dealer with Kookmin Bank in Seoul. �Rising stocks are lending support to the currency market. From April, we�ll see the overall situation improving.�
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JFuller317
Joined: 10 Oct 2008
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| Posted: Mon Mar 09, 2009 11:15 pm Post subject: |
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| So are we going to see <1400 or >1700 in the next few months? I don't know what to believe! |
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poet13
Joined: 22 Jan 2006
Location: Just over there....throwing lemons.
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| Posted: Mon Mar 09, 2009 11:26 pm Post subject: |
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| It wouldn't surprise me if we saw both....more than once...lol. |
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Robot_Teacher
Joined: 18 Feb 2009
Location: Robotting Around the World
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| Posted: Mon Mar 09, 2009 11:31 pm Post subject: |
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| Let's hope 2010 doesn't mean a nasty 2010 Won rate. |
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