Korean Job Discussion Forums

[fiveeagles]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-It-eC6mISo&NR=1

[fiveeagles]

Mises...what are your thoughts on Peter?

[mises]

He doesn't apply the same critical eye to the world as he does to the United States. This is why he missed the dollar gaining value, Asian equities and demand collapsing and had a misplaced support for the decoupling theory.

Remember, these guys on tv are talking their books and trying to drum up clients. The more people are scared to death about the economy, the more business EuroPac will do. And if you have been doing business with EuroPac, you're prolly close to broke.

I don't think the stimulus will lead to disaster but won't be helpful. The United States will have a lower growth potential in the future due to the debt, but that isn't a disaster, just a shame.

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/01/peter-schiff-was-wrong.html

[mises]

Here is an excellent talk by Schiff. He really does a great job summarizing how we got here.

http://www.lewrockwell.com/podcast/?p=episode&name=2009-03-15_104_why_was_anyone_surprised_by_the_crash.mp3

[Voyeur]

I disagree a bit. Schiff always stresses he is talking long-term. He has often said that in the short-term countries that were structured around exporting to meet the uber demand fuled by the US borrow/consume cycle will hurt bad as they restructure - in some cases hurt as bad as the US in the short/medium term. They will also hurt if the US can't pay someof the money they owe (or effectively default via hyer inflation of the dollar).

But his thesis is that eventually they will be much better off having less debt and retained much more actual production capacity. The US dollar being up is because of massive deleveraging of US-denominated equities and assets and possibly a collective bout of wishful thinking on everyone's part. His belief that eventually the dollar will fall hard remains quite plausible. He has always stressed that he can't time exactly when that will happen.

Though in some cases he may not be quite critical enough of some Western economies like the UK and Australia that might be almost as bad off as the US. But overall his thesis still seems sound to me.

[fiveeagles]

I agree with Mises.

I think he's sold out a bit now. He doesn't have the total pulse. I am going to keep seeking until i find someone that does...hopefully.