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Cheonmunka
Joined: 04 Jun 2004
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 Posted: Mon Oct 27, 2008 4:34 am Post subject: |
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| After seeing CSI like, 2500 times, I never, never want to go to Vegas. |
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RJjr
Joined: 17 Aug 2006
Location: Turning on a Lamp
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| Posted: Mon Oct 27, 2008 1:28 pm Post subject: |
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This blogger has a lot of reports on the Vegas economy. His articles about Vegas are in the column on the right toward the bottom.
http://economicrot.blogspot.com/2008/06/las-vegas-downturn-gathering-momentum.html
It sounds like the economy there is bad with gaming revenue down so sharply and 50% of homeowners who bought homes in the last five years upside down on their mortgages. But for Tiger Beer and others traveling there, it would probably be a good time to go. One would think that rooms and services would be the cheapest they've been in a while. |
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mises
Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired
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| Posted: Mon Oct 27, 2008 1:54 pm Post subject: |
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| The recent boom in Vegas was a product of the particular (and peculiar) economic times. Those times are over, and Vegas (the hospitality industry) will contract to pre-boom times. HELOC is dead, cheap credit is dead, building capacity as growth is dead and that's final. |
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Tiger Beer
Joined: 07 Feb 2003
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| Posted: Mon Oct 27, 2008 6:19 pm Post subject: |
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| mises wrote: |
| The recent boom in Vegas was a product of the particular (and peculiar) economic times. Those times are over, and Vegas (the hospitality industry) will contract to pre-boom times. HELOC is dead, cheap credit is dead, building capacity as growth is dead and that's final. |
But it might be an awesome place to put some money down on some property, I"m thinking about one year from now, when things have really bottomed out. |
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mises
Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired
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| Posted: Mon Oct 27, 2008 8:17 pm Post subject: |
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| Tiger Beer wrote: |
| mises wrote: |
| The recent boom in Vegas was a product of the particular (and peculiar) economic times. Those times are over, and Vegas (the hospitality industry) will contract to pre-boom times. HELOC is dead, cheap credit is dead, building capacity as growth is dead and that's final. |
But it might be an awesome place to put some money down on some property, I"m thinking about one year from now, when things have really bottomed out. |
The housing market will not bottom until 2012 or 2011. And then it will stay flat for about a decade, likely. Vegas, with PHX, SoCal and South Florida might not recover even then.
Rent, dude. Rent. A house isn't an investment. It is a place to live. When home prices are flat for at least 12 months, put 30%+ down and get something near a city center/place of employment. A suburb is a very bad investment now. |
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Tiger Beer
Joined: 07 Feb 2003
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| Posted: Sat Nov 22, 2008 1:33 am Post subject: |
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Found this proposed building site for Vegas: http://www.inhabitat.com/wp-content/uploads/citycenter_1.jpg
Something kind of wrong with it...it just looks VERY pedestrian UNfriendly. It would appeal to those that want condo views like that I suppose, and mainly that is its purpose, but this looks like you'd still be driving your car extensively in and out of it. |
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seosan08
Joined: 10 Oct 2008
Location: Korea
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| Posted: Sat Nov 22, 2008 3:53 am Post subject: |
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| Vegas has one of the highest repo and default rates in the USA. It's going to turn back into desert sooner or later. |
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mises
Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired
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| Posted: Wed Apr 08, 2009 6:12 pm Post subject: |
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Disaster. As I said.
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Fewer vacationers flew to Las Vegas in February as gambling receipts tumbled 23 per cent from a year earlier. Shares of MGM Mirage fell $1.08, or 20 per cent, to $4.45 US as the company continues to pursue fresh financing for its $8.6-billion, 37-acre CityCenter project on the Vegas strip. Wynn Resorts sank $4.49, or 14 per cent, to $26.71. Las Vegas Sands, operator of the Venetian casino, dropped 93 cents, or 19 per cent, to $4.03.
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http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Trading+retreats+traders+brace+earnings+season/1474885/story.html
http://news.google.ca/news?um=1&ned=ca&cf=all&ncl=1328760531
And the city center project is the center of the disaster.
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE53800Q20090409
So, as I was arguing in the first page. This is a different downturn. Not cyclical but structural. America is much poorer, much less powerful economically and this change is permanent. The leisure society is dead and gone. Gone, gone, gone. |
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Kuros
Joined: 27 Apr 2004
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| Posted: Wed Apr 08, 2009 6:17 pm Post subject: |
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| mises wrote: |
| America is much poorer, much less powerful economically and this change is permanent. The leisure society is dead and gone. Gone, gone, gone. |
Being in the middle of America is a little different. Its the downfall of NYC, LA, SanFran, Miami, etc. But you get more towards the center of a country and its just an economic downturn. Of course, there was no leisure society here, so in that sense you're right. |
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mises
Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired
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| Posted: Wed Apr 08, 2009 6:20 pm Post subject: |
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| Those areas with a serious housing boom were la la lands from reality. Where you are Kuros has been in a downturn since about 1964. Flat wages, decreasing purchasing power, off shored jobs etc. |
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bucheon bum
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
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| Posted: Wed Apr 08, 2009 8:45 pm Post subject: |
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| Kuros wrote: |
| mises wrote: |
| America is much poorer, much less powerful economically and this change is permanent. The leisure society is dead and gone. Gone, gone, gone. |
Being in the middle of America is a little different. Its the downfall of NYC, LA, SanFran, Miami, etc. But you get more towards the center of a country and its just an economic downturn. Of course, there was no leisure society here, so in that sense you're right. |
the downfall? Really? SF and LA have been hit less than a lot of the country. NYC will recover. Financial centers don't change that quickly. I mean London has been a financial center for a couple centuries. Who will take London and NY's place? There are no other cities even close to them currently.
No idea about Miami.
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| Where you are Kuros has been in a downturn since about 1964. Flat wages, decreasing purchasing power, off shored jobs etc. |
Yup, pretty much. |
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Kuros
Joined: 27 Apr 2004
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| Posted: Thu Apr 09, 2009 7:54 am Post subject: |
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| bucheon bum wrote: |
| Kuros wrote: |
| mises wrote: |
| America is much poorer, much less powerful economically and this change is permanent. The leisure society is dead and gone. Gone, gone, gone. |
Being in the middle of America is a little different. Its the downfall of NYC, LA, SanFran, Miami, etc. But you get more towards the center of a country and its just an economic downturn. Of course, there was no leisure society here, so in that sense you're right. |
the downfall? Really? SF and LA have been hit less than a lot of the country. NYC will recover. Financial centers don't change that quickly. I mean London has been a financial center for a couple centuries. Who will take London and NY's place? There are no other cities even close to them currently. |
SF & LA are in a state thats falling apart fiscally, and housing prices were inflated through the roof. You can't tell me there's not pain in those areas. |
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bucheon bum
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
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| Posted: Thu Apr 09, 2009 8:38 am Post subject: |
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| Kuros wrote: |
| bucheon bum wrote: |
| Kuros wrote: |
| mises wrote: |
| America is much poorer, much less powerful economically and this change is permanent. The leisure society is dead and gone. Gone, gone, gone. |
Being in the middle of America is a little different. Its the downfall of NYC, LA, SanFran, Miami, etc. But you get more towards the center of a country and its just an economic downturn. Of course, there was no leisure society here, so in that sense you're right. |
the downfall? Really? SF and LA have been hit less than a lot of the country. NYC will recover. Financial centers don't change that quickly. I mean London has been a financial center for a couple centuries. Who will take London and NY's place? There are no other cities even close to them currently. |
SF & LA are in a state thats falling apart fiscally, and housing prices were inflated through the roof. You can't tell me there's not pain in those areas. |
In the suburbs, yes. SF real estate prices didn't drop that much. I believe in LA it was a similar story. |
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mises
Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired
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| Posted: Thu Apr 09, 2009 9:35 am Post subject: |
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BB, I don't have time to look up the data, but SF's RE has crashed, though not as massively as LA.
Hate to say it, but California may not be possible to repair. Like France. Too many vested interests and crazy liberals who can't balance a cheque book running the show (Arnie included). And it might be uncomfortable for whites to say, but the more Mexicans in So-Cal, the more So-Cal will resemble Mexico. |
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bucheon bum
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
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| Posted: Thu Apr 09, 2009 10:02 am Post subject: |
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| mises wrote: |
| BB, I don't have time to look up the data, but SF's RE has crashed, though not as massively as LA. |
The SF Bay Area, yes, they crashed. The city itself, however, not so much.
Here is an article
While the SF Bay Area saw housing prices dropped 32.4% in the past year, it includes counties that where big participants in the real estate bubble (same goes with LA).
As the article states:
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| Case-Shiller defines the San Francisco metro area as Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, San Francisco and San Mateo counties. Many observers point out that this lumps together disparate areas, including counties where prices have remained relatively solid (San Francisco, Marin and San Mateo) with Alameda and Contra Costa, which have been racked by foreclosures. |
If you click on the accompanying map, you'll also see that NY real estate prices didn't drop that much compared to the rest of the country. |
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