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Captain Corea
Joined: 28 Feb 2005
Location: Seoul
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 Posted: Wed May 27, 2009 11:27 pm Post subject: |
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| b-class rambler wrote: |
| bassexpander wrote: |
NK admitted, in October 2002, that it was going for WMDs through uranium enrichment after US uncovered evidence of the fact. |
That's what Bush's envoy, James Kelly, claimed. But the North Koreans were always adamant that they had made no such admission at all and that he had misinterpreted what was said. They insisted they had said that they retain the sovereign right to a uranium enrichment program, not that they actually had one. |
They have it now, no? Didn't seem to take 'em long either. |
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wesharris
Joined: 10 Oct 2008
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| Posted: Thu May 28, 2009 12:43 am Post subject: |
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You are assuming logic and reason concerning this subject.
Don't.
The Leadership up north IS ILLOGICAL.
They have no reason to be anything but .
_+_+
Wes |
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hagwonnewbie
Joined: 09 Feb 2007
Location: Asia
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| Posted: Thu May 28, 2009 1:18 am Post subject: |
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It's a real threat.
The recent rhetoric only serves to increase the threat by forcing the various parties into positions they can't back out of, lest they lose face. You can bet the North won't back down. Theys cray-ji.
You can live in denial like most Koreans or acknowledge the risk that the North might attack any day. If it happens, you can be sure all the technology and western firepower in the world won't prevent citizens in Seoul from being killed.
What remains to be seen is how much the Koreans will up the ante by commiting. |
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KoreaninKorea
Joined: 10 Oct 2008
Location: Incheon
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| Posted: Thu May 28, 2009 1:34 am Post subject: |
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| 9. The United States has not followed through on their agrements with North Korea. Back when Clinton was President we talked to them and we had an agreement with them that we would send them some reactors ( I forget the exact term and type ) in response to their promise not to pursue nuclear activity. Then Bush came into office and this agreement was never followed through by his administration so the North Koreans are thinking the Americans are liars and can't be trusted to keep their word. |
Not true at all. The deal was that NK do not persue nukes and the USA would build this for them. NK persued nukes and we didn't build it. It's a simple as that. The US is as stupid as SK and it sunshine policy. We give and get something in return. No just give. |
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b-class rambler
Joined: 25 Mar 2009
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| Posted: Thu May 28, 2009 3:13 am Post subject: |
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| Captain Corea wrote: |
| b-class rambler wrote: |
| bassexpander wrote: |
NK admitted, in October 2002, that it was going for WMDs through uranium enrichment after US uncovered evidence of the fact. |
That's what Bush's envoy, James Kelly, claimed. But the North Koreans were always adamant that they had made no such admission at all and that he had misinterpreted what was said. They insisted they had said that they retain the sovereign right to a uranium enrichment program, not that they actually had one. |
They have it now, no? Didn't seem to take 'em long either. |
I didn't say they had or hadn't at that time, nor that their claim or his was the true one. I don't know. And you don't either. My point was just that their admission of guilt at that time has often been claimed as an undisputed fact. It isn't. They have never admitted that that's what they said to Kelly.
Do I find what NK claims to be believable? Frequently not at all. But I don't honestly have a whole lot less scepticism for much of what James Kelly, John Bolton etal want people to believe either. |
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nuthatch
Joined: 21 Feb 2008
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| Posted: Thu May 28, 2009 6:08 am Post subject: |
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I agree with wesharris and hagwonnewbie.
As posted on the other thread - one might want to think of one's ticket outta there:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/29/world/asia/29korea.html?ref=asia
South Korea and U.S. Raise Alert Level
By CHOE SANG-HUN
Published: May 27, 2009
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| �It�s a matter of time when a fuse for war is triggered,� the North Korean government�s official newspaper, Minju Joseon, said in a commentary carried by the state-run news agency KCNA. |
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| ...Seoul, with a population of 10.4 million and just 35 miles from the border.... |
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| North Korea intensified its threats against South Korea and the United States on Wednesday with warnings of a �powerful military strike� if any North Korean ships were stopped or searched as part of an American-led operation to intercept vessels suspected of carrying unconventional weapons. |
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/28/opinion/28thur1.html
Editorial
North Korea Tests
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| Erratic, frightening and hugely self-destructive. Those are the words we would use to describe North Korea�s behavior. First it defied the United Nations Security Council�s cease-and-desist orders and tested both a nuclear device and half a dozen missiles. Now it is threatening to launch military strikes against South Korea and may have resumed production of nuclear fuel. |
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Sapa
Joined: 05 Nov 2007
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| Posted: Thu May 28, 2009 6:17 am Post subject: |
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| Yes but will the US or SK stop any ships to search them? Has it been done in the past? |
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oskinny1
Joined: 10 Nov 2006
Location: Right behind you!
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| Posted: Thu May 28, 2009 8:34 am Post subject: |
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| RufusW wrote: |
| oskinny1 wrote: |
| I remember watching a documentary about Robert McNamara and he was talking with Castro long after the Cuban Missile Crisis was over. Castro said he wanted and tried to fire the missiles knowing full well that Cuba would have been wiped off the map. |
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...during that conference, I asked President Castro three questions:
1. Were you aware the nuclear war- heads were in Cuba?
2. If so, would you have recommended their use?
3. If the nuclear weapons had been used, what would have been the outcome for Cuba?
He replied:
Now, we started from the assumption that if there was an invasion of Cuba, nuclear war would erupt. We were certain of that ... we would be forced to pay the price, that we would disappear.... Would I have been ready to use nuclear weapons? Yes, I would have agreed to the use of nuclear weapons.� |
http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2002_11/cubanmissile
So he would have used them if attacked, much like NK would. But using nukes as a first strike is essentially suicide. If there's a chain of command with at least a few rational people in it you can presume they're not going to send them off and start their assured destruction.
Funny film about unintended nuclear war - Dr.Strangelove (of course!)
A rather disturbing drama - Fail Safe (2000). |
Thanks for that, was a bit off in my recollection. |
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PK
Joined: 25 Nov 2008
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| Posted: Thu May 28, 2009 9:39 am Post subject: |
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I'm more afraid of the US and SK forces making the first move, backing NK into a corner, and initiating a sequence of events that seriously jeopardizes the safety of everyone in Seoul. Some kind of Collin Powell WMD speech / Vietnam Gulf of Tonkin event is very probable.
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The Lemon
Joined: 11 Jan 2003
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| Posted: Thu May 28, 2009 10:05 am Post subject: |
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It's annoying when people use the "experience" card over others, and I really don't want to be that guy. But.
People who have been in SK for several years are well-used to NK's hysterics. In 1994 they threatened to turn Seoul into a "Ring of Fire". In 2003 they told US negotiators, "we have nukes, AND WORSE!!" Worse than nukes?
This is what they do. Go to www.kcna.co.jp and click on any random day in their 11 year archive and you'll find "war is about to break out" hype. These statements make an impression on people who aren't very aware of international affairs (ie your family) but they really are empty threats, which is why South Koreans long ago learned to ignore them.
If your family wants to worry, let them worry about:
1. Korean traffic, including while riding on buses and in taxis
2. Car-pedestrian accidents
3. you eating undercooked chicken/pork at restaurants where they like to leave the tongs they use to serve the food to you in the raw-meat pan
4. Suicide, alcohol, nutso ex-bf/gfs and drugs
.. all of which have done in several more English teachers than the North Koreans, historically.
Nothing's going to happen.
And if I'm wrong, you'll be dead and you won't be able to say "I told you so". I can't lose, here. 
And besides, it won't be nukes that the NK will use to off you. It will be the 200,000 heavy artillery shells per hour that they can rain down onto Seoul from 50k away. Or the chemical and biological weapons. The nukes are the last things to worry about. |
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nuthatch
Joined: 21 Feb 2008
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| Posted: Thu May 28, 2009 10:39 am Post subject: |
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whether they are nukes or basic shelling,
you should worry and not be in denial of the possibility
as was stated earlier,
it is not the normal tantrum for attention
there is a lot of
| Quote: |
| "Erratic, frightening and hugely self-destructive...." |
behavior
(see New York Times articles above) |
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b-class rambler
Joined: 25 Mar 2009
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| Posted: Thu May 28, 2009 2:24 pm Post subject: |
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| The Lemon wrote: |
It's annoying when people use the "experience" card over others, and I really don't want to be that guy. But.
People who have been in SK for several years are well-used to NK's hysterics. In 1994 they threatened to turn Seoul into a "Ring of Fire". In 2003 they told US negotiators, "we have nukes, AND WORSE!!" Worse than nukes?
This is what they do. Go to www.kcna.co.jp and click on any random day in their 11 year archive and you'll find "war is about to break out" hype. These statements make an impression on people who aren't very aware of international affairs (ie your family) but they really are empty threats, which is why South Koreans long ago learned to ignore them.
If your family wants to worry, let them worry about:
1. Korean traffic, including while riding on buses and in taxis
2. Car-pedestrian accidents
3. you eating undercooked chicken/pork at restaurants where they like to leave the tongs they use to serve the food to you in the raw-meat pan
4. Suicide, alcohol, nutso ex-bf/gfs and drugs
.. all of which have done in several more English teachers than the North Koreans, historically.
Nothing's going to happen.
And if I'm wrong, you'll be dead and you won't be able to say "I told you so". I can't lose, here.
And besides, it won't be nukes that the NK will use to off you. It will be the 200,000 heavy artillery shells per hour that they can rain down onto Seoul from 50k away. Or the chemical and biological weapons. The nukes are the last things to worry about. |
Quoted for emphasis - agree with all of that.
Except I assume the lemon is no longer living in Korea, because that link isn't going to work for anyone who is. However, try this one and the point he was making should be crystal clear
http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/northkorea/2009/05/28/46/0401000000AEN20090528004200315F.HTML |
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Dimitris Stylianos
Mod Team
Joined: 05 Jul 2008
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