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Who would take over North Korea after it falls?
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dazzed



Joined: 26 May 2007

PostPosted: Wed Jun 03, 2009 12:20 pm    Post subject: Who would take over North Korea after it falls? Reply with quote

With the current events, it seems like NK is pushing it bit too much where everybody will be against them especially China and Russia. There only allies. If there was a scenerio where NK did go to war, after it loses(guaranteed), who'd get the country?

First of all China wouldn't be keen on having US army close to there borders, even Russia (maybe).

any thoughts?
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Kikomom



Joined: 24 Jun 2008
Location: them thar hills--Penna, USA--Zippy is my kid, the teacher in ROK. You can call me Kiko

PostPosted: Wed Jun 03, 2009 1:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

What China isn't keen on is having hundreds of thousands of NK immigrants invading their border. They like the status quo--keeping them on their side.
Quote:
...if the Chinese press too hard, the official said, �they risk unintentionally causing collapse in North Korea and instability� on their own border.

Yet the NYT's is saying that ...
Quote:
North Korea�s last ally, China, is reportedly deeply uncomfortable with the thought of a third-generation family dynasty, unique among Communist nations.

The latest word there is that number 3 son, Jung-un, is next in line to be "The Cute Leader".
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eIn07912



Joined: 06 Dec 2008
Location: seoul

PostPosted: Wed Jun 03, 2009 4:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

it would be in everybody�s best interest if china stepped in.

instability in northeast asia is bad for asia, bad for the pacific, bad for america. china wouldnt be too happy with the u.s. that close to the border (as they should be, they have historically respected the american sphere influence, and we should do the same.) japan sure as hell aint going in, while they have the manpower, the money, and the skills to stabilize the country, soko, noko, and china aint having any part of it.

while soko would play a supporting role to china, it would be too much of a job for them to take on alone. and while still communist, chinas regime is much more moderate than noko. moving too fast from hardcore stalinist dictatorship to democracy would send a shock wave up north that would be devastating. if we've learned anything from the korean war, iraq, and germany after the iron curtain fell, its that speed is not ur friend when reforming a government. slow baby steps is what would work best.

the chinese know where the nukes r, they know where the prison camps r. they can move in from the northern border and face very little resistance on their way to pyongyang. after a period of stabilizing with more moderate chinese friendly government put in place, they can then focus on gradually opening up, province-by-province, parts of noko to be integrated with soko.

eventually, and the chinese know this, a unified peninsula under a seoul style government is good for them is good for japan, good for the us, and good for trade and peace. the chinese dont want loose nukes floating around north east asia. theyre already none too thrilled with recent actions and arent happy about the new leader either.

now...dont get me wrong. im not a big fan of the chinese. i despise communism in every form. and their record on human rights is something the west should seriously handle. but the world would be a hundred times better off with a mini-china in north korea. especially as noko, slowly, and i mean dead-slow, unifies with soko.
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yingwenlaoshi



Joined: 12 Feb 2007
Location: ... location, location!

PostPosted: Wed Jun 03, 2009 4:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I don't know, but the U.S. should destroy it and find out. Enough of this crap.

Their.
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Panda



Joined: 25 Oct 2008

PostPosted: Wed Jun 03, 2009 5:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well said, eIn07912.

I dont think NK is going to fall overnight, neither do I believe there will be another Korean war in no time.

NK isnt stupid and knows well how much money they have in their pocket, even they launch all the missiles and nukes they have, there is no chance they win in any war, NK wont kick against the pricks.

All they have done recently was aimed to ease their domestic tension and creat a patriotic atmosphere in order to get ready for the succession. This deflection strategy has been applied by many other countries as well.

NK knows well, as long it doesnt make big troubles, under China and Russia's protection umbrella, it could play some games with the west.

If the country fell apart, it would only be the result of revolution from inside the country, but it is very unlikely as well.
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crossmr



Joined: 22 Nov 2008
Location: Hwayangdong, Seoul

PostPosted: Wed Jun 03, 2009 8:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
it would be in everybody�s best interest if china stepped in.


Quote:
now...dont get me wrong. im not a big fan of the chinese. i despise communism in every form. and their record on human rights is something the west should seriously handle. but the world would be a hundred times better off with a mini-china in north korea. especially as noko, slowly, and i mean dead-slow, unifies with soko.

If china took it over you would never see unification with South Korea. Look how they're holding on to tibet, taiwan, etc.
China taking over NK would be stupid. There might at least be travel between the koreas, but you would never ever see unification.
If NK falls, SK has to step in and modernize it.. learn from the mistakes of Germany and straighten things out.
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eIn07912



Joined: 06 Dec 2008
Location: seoul

PostPosted: Wed Jun 03, 2009 8:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

crossmr wrote:
Quote:
it would be in everybody�s best interest if china stepped in.


Quote:
now...dont get me wrong. im not a big fan of the chinese. i despise communism in every form. and their record on human rights is something the west should seriously handle. but the world would be a hundred times better off with a mini-china in north korea. especially as noko, slowly, and i mean dead-slow, unifies with soko.

If china took it over you would never see unification with South Korea. Look how they're holding on to tibet, taiwan, etc.
China taking over NK would be stupid. There might at least be travel between the koreas, but you would never ever see unification.
If NK falls, SK has to step in and modernize it.. learn from the mistakes of Germany and straighten things out.


its too big for soko to handle. there would be all out anarchy. a huge jump from communism to what is called democracy here would be nearly impossible.

taiwan and tibet r considered parts of china according to the chinese, noko is not.

ur an idiot.
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crossmr



Joined: 22 Nov 2008
Location: Hwayangdong, Seoul

PostPosted: Wed Jun 03, 2009 8:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

eIn07912 wrote:


its too big for soko to handle. there would be all out anarchy. a huge jump from communism to what is called democracy here would be nearly impossible.

taiwan and tibet r considered parts of china according to the chinese, noko is not.

ur an idiot.


If North Korea is taken over by the chinese, it will suddenly be part of china. Who knows what crazy fake historical document they might dream up that shows it. As for it being all out anarchy, it doesn't need to be. As for there being a huge jump, there doesn't need to be, hence what I said about learning from the mistakes of Germany. The only idiot here is someone who thinks if china is given territory they're just going to give it up when someone asks nice.
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eIn07912



Joined: 06 Dec 2008
Location: seoul

PostPosted: Wed Jun 03, 2009 9:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

crossmr wrote:
eIn07912 wrote:


its too big for soko to handle. there would be all out anarchy. a huge jump from communism to what is called democracy here would be nearly impossible.

taiwan and tibet r considered parts of china according to the chinese, noko is not.

ur an idiot.


If North Korea is taken over by the chinese, it will suddenly be part of china. Who knows what crazy fake historical document they might dream up that shows it. As for it being all out anarchy, it doesn't need to be. As for there being a huge jump, there doesn't need to be, hence what I said about learning from the mistakes of Germany. The only idiot here is someone who thinks if china is given territory they're just going to give it up when someone asks nice.


me - B.A. poli sci, focus in east asian studies

u - brag about being in -49 degree weather.

i win.
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crossmr



Joined: 22 Nov 2008
Location: Hwayangdong, Seoul

PostPosted: Wed Jun 03, 2009 9:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

eIn07912 wrote:


me - B.A. poli sci, focus in east asian studies

u - brag about being in -49 degree weather.

i win.


I'm sorry did you have something to contribute to the debate? No, then I assume you concede. Anyone can make a claim on the internet. you have a BA? I have a master's degree. Anything else? Apparently you're the loser. So far your big contribution is an unsupported claim, chat speak, and claims of some intellectual superiority. Nothing to really defend your point. I can't imagine how you'd make it through a BA if you can't even keep a debate up past a couple of exchanges. You couldn't even get through the first exchange without making some personal attack.
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RyanInKorea



Joined: 17 Jan 2008

PostPosted: Wed Jun 03, 2009 9:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

As a simple observer, with no real opinion, I go to admit that eIn07912 is much more convincing even without capitals and the stupid soko's and noko's.

Besides, his B.A./degrees joke was classic,
Ryan
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eIn07912



Joined: 06 Dec 2008
Location: seoul

PostPosted: Wed Jun 03, 2009 10:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

crossmr wrote:
eIn07912 wrote:


me - B.A. poli sci, focus in east asian studies

u - brag about being in -49 degree weather.

i win.


I'm sorry did you have something to contribute to the debate? No, then I assume you concede. Anyone can make a claim on the internet. you have a BA? I have a master's degree. Anything else? Apparently you're the loser. So far your big contribution is an unsupported claim, chat speak, and claims of some intellectual superiority. Nothing to really defend your point. I can't imagine how you'd make it through a BA if you can't even keep a debate up past a couple of exchanges. You couldn't even get through the first exchange without making some personal attack.


China's Opening Society - Zheng Yongnian, Joseph Fewsmith
Power and Sustainability of the Chinese State - Keun Lee, Joon-Han Kim, Wing Thye Woo
China and the New International Order - Wang Gungwu, Zheng Yongnian
^ one semesters required reading

My thesis - Future of U.S. Defense Policy For the New East Asia
Thesis advisor - Wen-hua Teng, Ph. D. University of Texas at Austin

..please, know ur limits before u try to play with the big boys.
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crossmr



Joined: 22 Nov 2008
Location: Hwayangdong, Seoul

PostPosted: Wed Jun 03, 2009 10:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

RyanInKorea wrote:
As a simple observer, with no real opinion, I go to admit that eIn07912 is much more convincing even without capitals and the stupid soko's and noko's.

Besides, his B.A./degrees joke was classic,
Ryan


What's convincing? He's offered no reason or evidence as to why China would be so gracious as to spend the money and manpower to invade North Korea and then just give it up. Invade to prevent instability? Yes. Just give it up for no reason after doing all the work? There is no motivation for that. They're a hostile power. Why would they invade the hostile power then just give it up to another country after they put the work into stabilizing it.

South Korea is no real threat to China, the chinese don't have any reason to give a fought for territory to them. His only claim is that its good for them..but why?
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eIn07912



Joined: 06 Dec 2008
Location: seoul

PostPosted: Wed Jun 03, 2009 10:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

crossmr wrote:
eIn07912 wrote:


me - B.A. poli sci, focus in east asian studies

u - brag about being in -49 degree weather.

i win.


I'm sorry did you have something to contribute to the debate? No, then I assume you concede. Anyone can make a claim on the internet. you have a BA? I have a master's degree. Anything else? Apparently you're the loser. So far your big contribution is an unsupported claim, chat speak, and claims of some intellectual superiority. Nothing to really defend your point. I can't imagine how you'd make it through a BA if you can't even keep a debate up past a couple of exchanges. You couldn't even get through the first exchange without making some personal attack.


China's Opening Society - Zheng Yongnian, Joseph Fewsmith
Power and Sustainability of the Chinese State - Keun Lee, Joon-Han Kim, Wing Thye Woo
China and the New International Order - Wang Gungwu, Zheng Yongnian
^ one semesters required reading

My thesis - Future of U.S. Defense Policy For the New East Asia
Thesis advisor - Wen-hua Teng, Ph. D. University of Texas at Austin

Internship at the Center For American Progress - International Alliances & Institutions


..please, know ur limits before u try to play with the big boys.
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saw6436



Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Daejeon, ROK

PostPosted: Wed Jun 03, 2009 10:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Who will take over when NK falls? Me!!!!
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