Korean Job Discussion Forums

brento1138 · Joined: 17 Nov 2004

Panda's post was pretty much on the ball...

It's all about domestic politics, folks.

moosehead · Joined: 05 May 2007

since when has china ever gave a flying ***** what any other govt thought of them?

just ask the weigurs (sp?) down in gitmo

china makes nice only when it serves china's purpose, and most recently, that's been to obtain much-needed energy resources for its energy-starved population.

don't think for a minute china's not looking at this entire situation as a possible enlargement of its own domestic territory - there are already an estimated 100 chinese a day entering K and K businesses are expanding in China -

nathanrutledge · Joined: 01 May 2008 Location: Marakesh

Panda - I don't see the Chinese or the Russians getting into a shooting war with the U.S., which is what an attack on the South would create. There may only be 28,000 troops in country, but the U.S. and R.O.K. just recently signed a new agreement on defense and in the event of a war, the entire might of the U.S. military would be brought in. Unlike 1950, there is no threat of an overthrow of the Chinese government. There is no incentive for the Chinese to get involved militarily. The only outcome is a long, drawn out conventional fight, destroyed economic ties, being an international outcast.

The Russians aren't even an issue. This isn't their backyard like the Caucuses. They may be trying to reassert their power, but again, a direct military conflict with the U.S. on an issue such as North Korea is not going to help their cause.

As far as Hu Jintao sending Chinese troops to the Sudan, Moosehead hit it right on the head. China makes nice to serve its own purposes. China is making quite a bit of headway in Africa, especially in securing energy. Chinese troops in Sudan on a peace keeping mission are, at the very core, simply Chinese troops in Africa. Compare that to American troops in Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, Kuwait, South America,etc over the decades. They are securing their place at the table.

But as I said, I don't see the Chinese getting involved to a large extent with NK. It's not in their interest to try and conquer the North. It's not land that they claim like Tibet or Taiwan. It offers them nothing of value. If they were to take it over, it would ruin all of Beijings work at being recognized as a legitimate world player.

I'd have to say all the doomsday prophecies are just designed to sell more papers. The North collapses on its own, it will end up reuniting with the South at some point. A war happens, the winner will absorb the other. Chinese intervention will be minimal, Russian intervention will be non existent.

eIn07912 · Joined: 06 Dec 2008 Location: seoul

i cant blog, im just too damn lazy. i tried once, got a good two or three posts out of me before i forgot my login.

i have to disagree with u nathanrutledge.

It's THAT China stands to gain nothing that is the very reason why they would be more likely to step in. It's the issue of being considered uncaring about the rest of the world that they want to break. You really should have a look at China and the New International Order... in it Wang points out China's "one country, two governments" policy it has with Hong Kong and Taiwan as a significant and radical comprimise that has earned them a decent amount of favor already and as threats against Taiwan become fewer and farer between, it is only improving their image as a moderate and tolerate mega-state. Ushering in N. Korea from the dark ages and into the rest of the world under the tutelage of the "wiser older brother" is something they are becoming more comfortable with.

I will concur with you that they and the Russians have no desire to get in a shooting match with ROK and US forces. Both know the US spends about 50% of the worlds military budget and, despite the poor showing we're in with Iraq and Afghanistan, know that if the US ever found someone they considered a real threat like the sleeping dragon of the east or the hungry polar bear of the north, we'd pull out all the stops and cash in on that cold war savings account.

Lets remember also, its not that China gains nothing from all this. They desire stability. Nuclear weapons, however small and outdated they are, floating around this part of the world or in the hands of brain washed military from the north, is not something that builds confidence in the rest of the world. For the most part, the UN has defered to the "regional power" policy, in that if there is a serious issue in an area of the world, the regional governing state is the first line of defense. If China were to drop the ball on their first major issue, they would lose all the confidence from the viewing world and be trusted less and less. Losing trade partners, being considered less instead of more when it comes to global issues, and pushed further away from their ultimate goal of truly being the "middle kingdom" or "center of the world" as we would say.

I'm sure we'd all love to see American forces pull out of the south, Chinese influence to draw back from the north, and the peninsula to heal on its own and have the rest of the world let the tiger lick its wounds. But that is simply an idea that, while very pleasant, is impossible at this point. West Germany had an economy that was 18x that of its Eastern brother, and the difference can still be seen today once your out of Berlin. South Koreas economy, while strong when the worlds is strong, would almost crumble should they be burned with millions of starving people flooding their boarders and siphoning off their resources. It's just not in the cards right now. Another 50 years? Who knows. Maybe. But now? No.

Medic · Joined: 11 Mar 2003

The ratio of women to men in North Korea is greater than 1 unlike here in the ROK. Quite an incentive for the ROK to want to unite.

bassexpander · Joined: 13 Sep 2007 Location: Someplace you'd rather be.

I'm hearing a lot about China stepping in, but little about how South Korea would feel about that.

Ask any South Korean what they think of China swallowing up North Korea.

The Grumpy Senator · Joined: 13 Jan 2008 Location: Up and down the 6 line

All this talk about China "opening" and the positive image they put out for the Olympics took a bit of a hit this week with the Tiananmen crackdown. That is not going to put them in favorable light in Washington or the rest of the democratic world.

While they seem to have taken a stronger stance towards North Korea on the surface this time; it remains to be seen what they will actually do long term. China will sway North Korea in whatever direction they feel will benefit them the most.

michaelambling · Joined: 31 Dec 2008 Location: Paradise

crsandus · Joined: 05 Oct 2004

Let's get to the real important question here. Which company will be the first one to sponsor a baseball team in Pyeongyang? (After the NK Regime fall) Obviously a name like "Pyeongyang Panthers" or "Pyeongyang Plutonium Bombers" would be catchy, but which of the major Korean corporations would move in first? Is there a major Korean corporation without a baseball team yet?