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Pluto
Joined: 19 Dec 2006
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 Posted: Sat Jun 06, 2009 9:47 am Post subject: |
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| bucheon bum wrote: |
| Pluto wrote: |
| bucheon bum wrote: |
| so the past decade has been like the 50s, 60s, and 70s? |
This past decade was built on a real estate bubble. Kuros is right, I don't see any new innovations that will be able to permanently shift the economic paradigm in the near future. Sure things will improve, Moore's Law is still in full effect. Computers and mobile devices are becoming cheaper and better, but I see nothing that will change the way we live our lives. |
What big innovations were made in the decades I mentioned that significantly boosted productivity? Perhaps the 80s and 90s were the exception and not the rule? That's my point.
And in regards to seeing nothing that will change the way we live our lives, well, time will tell.  |
It's hard to know where these thing will come from. Most innovation is small and incremental. I see nothing on the scale of electricity or the Internet in the foreseeable future though. But yeah, I could be wrong. |
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Privateer
Joined: 31 Aug 2005
Location: Easy Street.
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| Posted: Sat Jun 06, 2009 2:48 pm Post subject: |
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| Flying cars. I expected flying cars by now. With anti-gravity! |
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Rusty Shackleford
Joined: 08 May 2008
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| Posted: Sat Jun 06, 2009 5:30 pm Post subject: |
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| Paradoxically, there is scant evidence to suggest that computers even contributed to productivity growth over the last three decades. |
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Kuros
Joined: 27 Apr 2004
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| Posted: Sat Jun 06, 2009 6:56 pm Post subject: |
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| bucheon bum wrote: |
| Kuros wrote: |
| pkang0202 wrote: |
| The US isn't losing anything in innovation. Consumer electronics mean nothing. Chinese companies are making great PMP players that put anything the US has to offer to shame, that doesn't mean the US is losing "innovation". |
No, you don't understand the argument.
The argument is that we haven't had any great productivity boosters in the 00s, whereas the 80s had the personal computer and the 90s had the internet. Sorry, Apple, the IPod is great but it cannot transform our economic paradigm.
And this is not an Asia v. US argument. The US created the personal computer and the internet. Asia hasn't given us anything like that. Neither Asia nor Europe are any more innovative than the US, but the US has joined them in the ranks of no new ideas. |
so the past decade has been like the 50s, 60s, and 70s? |
Insofar as innovation goes, roughly yes.
But remember that the 50s, 60s, and 70s had a lot of other favorables. Demographics were better, oil was cheaper (until the 70s, which was a bad decade), and the US government was considerably more free from debt.
| Pluto wrote: |
It's hard to know where these thing will come from. Most innovation is small and incremental. I see nothing on the scale of electricity or the Internet in the foreseeable future though. But yeah, I could be wrong. |
There's no way of knowing. But I personally am optimistic that something will hit in energy or green tech. There certainly is a gaping, desperate demand for something.
| Rusty Shackleford wrote: |
Paradoxically, there is scant evidence to suggest that computers even contributed to productivity growth over the last three decades. |
I'm sorry, I didn't catch that. Could you punch up that thought again on a typewriter, make a carbon copy, and have your secretary post it first class to my address first thing tomorrow morning? |
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Rusty Shackleford
Joined: 08 May 2008
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| Posted: Sat Jun 06, 2009 7:24 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: |
Rusty Shackleford wrote:
Paradoxically, there is scant evidence to suggest that computers even contributed to productivity growth over the last three decades.
I'm sorry, I didn't catch that. Could you punch up that thought again on a typewriter, make a carbon copy, and have your secretary post it first class to my address first thing tomorrow morning? |
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Productivity_paradox
http://archive.salon.com/21st/feature/1998/04/24feature.html
http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/2000/200006/200006pap.pdf
The idea that computers havn't caused the massive gains in productivity that is often attributed to them, is fairly well known. It is obvious that they have made our lives better in many ways, but the EMPIRICAL evidence simply isn't as cut and dried as the anecdotal evidence in your mind appears to be. |
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visitorq
Joined: 11 Jan 2008
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| Posted: Sat Jun 06, 2009 11:23 pm Post subject: |
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| Kuros wrote: |
| pkang0202 wrote: |
| The US isn't losing anything in innovation. Consumer electronics mean nothing. Chinese companies are making great PMP players that put anything the US has to offer to shame, that doesn't mean the US is losing "innovation". |
No, you don't understand the argument.
The argument is that we haven't had any great productivity boosters in the 00s, whereas the 80s had the personal computer and the 90s had the internet. Sorry, Apple, the IPod is great but it cannot transform our economic paradigm.
And this is not an Asia v. US argument. The US created the personal computer and the internet. Asia hasn't given us anything like that. Neither Asia nor Europe are any more innovative than the US, but the US has joined them in the ranks of no new ideas. |
Isn't "real" productivity just tied in with peak oil? I don't see how technology can ever permanently solve that problem, unless we can invent a way to get free, sustainable energy forever. Otherwise, most growth has just been asset-bubble based...
In terms of inventing new ideas, we do. We also make a lot of good products, we just can't get the Chinese et al to buy them (hence massive trade deficits). The American consumer is therefore expected to consume enough to keep American companies alive, as well as the rest of the world. The problem is not so much American productivity per se, as trade imbalances... |
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