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Julius
Joined: 27 Jul 2006
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 Posted: Tue Jun 02, 2009 1:58 am Post subject: |
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| Xerxes wrote: |
Evacuating Seoul is more difficult with an even bigger population density |
Agreed- in 1950 Seoul was far smaller and with fewer people, and probably more importantly- nobody drove cars. There were not millions of vehicles clogging the city arteries. Since then, Seoul has had at least 100 new privately-owned cars added to its roads, every day, for the past 2 decades and I think the rate has actually increased.
In any case, North Korea has the missile capability to strike any part of South korea, as well as most of japan. So you would actually be no safer on jeju than in Seoul anyway.
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| two hot journalists getting abducted near the border there: they have since disappeared. |
Actually they are to be put on trial on Thursday in Pyongyang- on spying charges. I wish them well but I don't hold out much hope given the nuclear standoff that they are caught up in the middle of.
American journalists set to go on trial
http://edition.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/asiapcf/06/02/north.korea.detained.journalists/ |
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chris_J2
Joined: 17 Apr 2006
Location: From Brisbane, Au.
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| Posted: Wed Jun 10, 2009 7:10 am Post subject: |
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http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/8093494.stm
36 minutes ago:
N Korea draft resolution 'agreed'
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Key Security Council members have agreed on the wording of a draft UN resolution to expand sanctions against North Korea, diplomatic sources say.
The move is a response to Pyongyang's recent nuclear and missile testing.
The agreement was reportedly reached by the five permanent council members, along with Japan and South Korea.
The full 15-nation council will discuss the draft later in the day with a vote expected on Friday, unnamed diplomats were reported as saying.
Adoption of the draft resolution is virtually assured once the seven countries have endorsed it, diplomats told AFP news agency.
The US and Japan have been pushing for strong sanctions to punish North Korea for its nuclear test in May, but China and Russia have been wary about provoking Pyongyang's ire.
But two diplomats told Reuters that they believed China had agreed with the US-drafted text within the last 24 hours, but that Russia - which holds veto power - had new concerns.
In recent weeks, North Korea has fired a long-range and several short-range missiles, and tested a nuclear device in defiance of the UN Security Council.
The US has said it has ruled out military action against the North in favour of international diplomatic efforts.
North Korea said on Tuesday that it would use nuclear weapons in a "merciless offensive" if provoked. |
Expect a missile launch from DPRK on Friday.
http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSSP42233120090610?sp=true
And contrary to other posters concerns about real Chinese resolve on sanctions, it was Russia that held up the draft. |
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mises
Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired
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Julius
Joined: 27 Jul 2006
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| Posted: Sat Jun 13, 2009 7:36 am Post subject: |
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It may finally be coming down to crunch time. Hopefully China will follow through by strangling NK with sanctions. I think the N. koreans are that obstinate and stupid that they will actually start threatening to bomb their neighbours if they don't send food aid. We have a full-blown lunatic threatening passers-by with his needle here, folks. |
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Steelrails
Joined: 12 Mar 2009
Location: Earth, Solar System
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| Posted: Sun Jun 14, 2009 7:53 am Post subject: |
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Personally I think the N. Korean artillery threat is overblown. Carnot in his 'Defence of Strong Places' asserts that bombardments are undertaken when all military ingenuity has vanished. Or something along those lines...
Granted, 250,000 arty shells would not be a good time. Especially if they had chem agents. But then again, NK would in all likelihood not use chem warfare. Chem weapons use is a VERY serious matter in terms of the diplomatic response it would raise.
The point is Artillery has failed to produce a decisive result in modern war. It is a deterrent in that it would cause a humanitarian and economic catastrophe- but probably at the same level as say, the Big Tsunami a few years ago. Indonesia is still recovering, but life is going on there as well.
Also, if war does break out, we should all hope that NK tries to target everything in SK. That means their bombardment won't be as effective (In theory) because it will be spread out over such a wide area.
Really I think the NK 'deterrent' is more in the area of foreign policy. War is too much of a ruckus for everyone involved- so its a game of how close to the brink they can go. |
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Rteacher
Joined: 23 May 2005
Location: Western MA, USA
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chris_J2
Joined: 17 Apr 2006
Location: From Brisbane, Au.
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| Posted: Mon Jun 15, 2009 2:07 am Post subject: |
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I also read another news article that China is walking a tightrope on 3 fronts:
"The North Korean government�s decision to conduct nuclear and missile tests has presented China with a diplomatic tightrope walk.
Huang Jing, an expert on North Asian strategic issues at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy (Singapore), told The Hindu that China faced at least three conflicting interests in handling the crisis:
1. maintaining its historically close strategic relationship with North Korea;
2. the need to placate the concerns of the United States, Japan and South Korea � three countries most concerned by the developments in the peninsula;
3. and the need to respond to a strong domestic backlash against the tests. North Korea carried out its second nuclear test only 85 km from its border with China."
Source: http://www.hindu.com/2009/06/12/stories/2009061255081300.htm |
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RufusW
Joined: 14 Jun 2008
Location: Busan
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| Posted: Mon Jun 15, 2009 4:25 am Post subject: |
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| I was thinking.... when it comes down to it, the US will just bomb NKs nuclear sites. Presumably this would be allowed by the UN. Then we sit tight and hope NK don't retaliate by conventionally attacking Seoul, which they surely wouldn't because they'd be wiped off the face of the earth. So maybe I'm thinking NK will never get to the point of having usable nuclear warheads because the US will have to attack and NK wouldn't want to follow through with war. |
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Xerxes
Joined: 10 Jan 2006
Location: Down a certain (rabbit) hole, apparently
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| Posted: Thu Jun 18, 2009 8:53 am Post subject: |
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Invasion is not an option.
Even if it were, talking about it is not an intelligent discussion. I live in Seoul, my wife's family live in Seoul, I have many friends in Seoul.
I'm more interested in what people think could be done to defang this country and its leadership. If regime collapse could be facilitated, I would favor it possibly, but let's take that off the books too.
The more tricky and interesting question is how to neutralize North Korea or an Iran. Nuclear upstarts are going to pop up around the world, but not one has been defanged with any success. Is nuclear non-profilieration even possible? |
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bacasper
Joined: 26 Mar 2007
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| Posted: Thu Jun 18, 2009 9:27 am Post subject: |
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DPRK threatens to launch pre-emptive strike against U.S.
Posted: 2009/06/16
From: MNN
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| Under the present situation where the Korean People`s Army (KPA) is technically at war with the U.S. imperialists, and as the Armistice Agreement has lost its legal binding force, the KPA will promptly exercise the right to a pre-emptive strike to beat back the enemies` slightest provocation,` said Pak Jae Gyong, vice-minister of the DPRK People`s Armed Forces. |
PYONGYANG, June 15 (Xinhua) -- The Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) has warned it would launch a pre-emptive attack against the United States.
Pak Jae Gyong, vice-minister of the DPRK People's Armed Forces, made the remark at a mass rally that attracted some 10,000 people to denounce a newly endorsed U.N. Security Council Resolution, the official KCNA news agency said Monday.
"Under the present situation where the Korean People's Army (KPA) is technically at war with the U.S. imperialists, and as the Armistice Agreement has lost its legal binding force, the KPA will promptly exercise the right to a pre-emptive strike to beat back the enemies' slightest provocation," Pak said.
He threatened to deliver blows to the "vital parts of the U.S." and "wipe out all its imperialist aggressor troops no matter where they are in the world."
Meanwhile, Kim Ki Nam, secretary of the Central Committee of the Workers' Party of Korea, told the rally that the U.N. resolution was "another grave provocation."
"This is, in essence, a wicked pressure offensive launched by the U.S. imperialists to disarm the DPRK, strangle its economy and undermine its ideology and system," Kim said.
The DPRK will respond to any attempt to blockade it with "resolute and deadly blows," he said.
The U.N. Security Council on Friday unanimously approved wider sanctions against the DPRK over its May 25 nuclear test.
The resolution bans all weapons exports from the DPRK and most arms imports into the country. It authorizes U.N. member states to inspect the DPRK's sea, air and land cargoes, requiring them to seize and destroy any goods transported in violation of the sanctions. |
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DrugstoreCowgirl
Joined: 08 May 2009
Location: Daegu-where the streets have no name
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| Posted: Thu Jun 18, 2009 2:06 pm Post subject: |
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| They would be really stupid to mess with the US. It should be interesting to see what happens on July 4th... |
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Julius
Joined: 27 Jul 2006
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| Posted: Thu Jun 18, 2009 4:48 pm Post subject: |
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| RufusW wrote: |
| I was thinking.... when it comes down to it, the US will just bomb NKs nuclear sites.. |
Fine go ahead, but don't hit one of the reactors- or Seoul and half of Japan will be covered in clouds of radioactive fallout within days. |
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Rteacher
Joined: 23 May 2005
Location: Western MA, USA
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Fox
Joined: 04 Mar 2009
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| Posted: Thu Jun 18, 2009 6:55 pm Post subject: |
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| Xerxes wrote: |
Invasion is not an option.
Even if it were, talking about it is not an intelligent discussion. I live in Seoul, my wife's family live in Seoul, I have many friends in Seoul. |
"It might affect me directly, so it's not an intelligent discussion." Persuasive. |
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bacasper
Joined: 26 Mar 2007
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| Posted: Fri Jun 19, 2009 9:02 am Post subject: |
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| Fox wrote: |
| Xerxes wrote: |
Invasion is not an option.
Even if it were, talking about it is not an intelligent discussion. I live in Seoul, my wife's family live in Seoul, I have many friends in Seoul. |
"It might affect me directly, so it's not an intelligent discussion." Persuasive. |
"I don't know anyone there, so it's cool to vaporize them." Compassionate. |
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