Korean Job Discussion Forums

[Ya-ta Boy]

Robert Baer, on Hardball, makes the interesting assertion that Khamenei isn't really an ayatollah, that he bought the 'license' and has always been a military man. He goes on to say that the real struggle is between Khamenei and Rafsanjani. Moreover, Rafsanjani is in Qom meeting with clerics and possibly plotting the removal of Khamenei. The rest of the segment is rather worthless but you can see it here--go to 5:43.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3036697#31393599

Anyway, Reza Aslan has just made the startling claim that Rafsanjani has called an emergency meeting of the Assembly of Experts--who can depose Khamenei. "Now, Anderson, I have to tell you, there's only one reason for the Assembly of Experts to meet at this point, and that is to actually talk about what to do about Khamenei. So, this is what I'm saying, is that we're talking about the very legitimacy, the very foundation of the Islamic Republic is up in the air right now. It's hard to say what this is going to go."

video clip at http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/06/13/iran-demonstrations-viole_n_215189.html (2:01 AM ET)

About soldiers: Robert Fisk is reporting this about soldiers keeping two crowds apart:

"It was interesting that the special forces - who normally take the side of Ahmadinejad's Basij militia - were there with clubs and sticks in their camouflage trousers and their purity white shirts and on this occasion the Iranian military kept them away from Mousavi's men and women.

In fact at one point, Mousavi's supporters were shouting 'thank you, thank you' to the soldiers.

One woman went up to the special forces men, who normally are very brutal with Mr Mousavi's supporters, and said 'can you protect us from the Basij?' He said 'with God's help'.

It was quite extraordinary because it looked as if the military authorities in Tehran have either taken a decision not to go on supporting the very brutal militia - which is always associated with the presidency here - or individual soldiers have made up their own mind that they're tired of being associated with the kind of brutality that left seven dead yesterday - buried, by the way secretly by the police - and indeed the seven or eight students who were killed on the university campus 24 hours earlier.

Quite a lot of policeman are beginning to smile towards the demonstrators of Mr Mousavi, who are insisting there must be a new election because Mr Ahmadinejad wasn't really elected. Quite an extraordinary scene."

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/06/17/2600571.htm

Clearly the most important development is the meeting in Qom. Up to now, this thing has appeared to be a choice between Tweedle-Dee and Tweedle-Dum leaving Khamenei to maintain the same nuclear policy. With a new Supreme Leader, there might be the possibility of a new policy.

[bacasper]

[Ya-ta Boy]

[Ya-ta Boy]

An interview with Reza Aslan starts at 7:10 in this clip:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26315908/#31416478


For people who haven't been following this all week, the best, clearest explanation of what is happening that I've come across so far is here:

"What is happening in these days is a reflection of two such long-running tensions. One is the differences within the ruling elite that have mushroomed into what appears to be a full-scale confrontation over the recent election results.

The other underlying tension, which is unfolding daily in huge protests across the country, comes from the deep dissatisfaction of much of the population with social and political restrictions imposed on them by the state, coupled with failing economic policies.

Let us not confuse these two trends. One is a political catfight within the regime, and the other is an outburst of popular demands for greater civil liberties and basic freedoms, and for effective economic policies. The former is serving as a vehicle for the latter."

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/hadi-ghaemi/fears-of-a-tehran-tiananm_b_217107.html

[NAVFC]

This isnt going to effect the Ayatollah. Why? He derives his authority from religious appel, given that Iran is a Islamic country. As such the ayatollah will go Tenemen square on this if he has to.

Ill tell you all whats going to happen.

Protests will go on for a day or two, before the iranian authroties bring it under control, then the Mousavi supporters will throw in the towel, and all will go on.

This is going to be like the US circa 2000 when some suspected that Gore was robbed the election - some days of protest, then people will grudginly except the outcome.

[Julius]

[Ya-ta Boy]

[NAVFC]

[Kuros]

[bucheon bum]

[NAVFC]

Well folks looks like the end game is here. To those of you who thought Khameini might be removed:
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,527282,00.html

Looks like its all over.


Looks as though he has united all of the iranian govt, including the basj, behind him against Mousavi.


and Buncoen bum, when I said religious appela I wasnt referring to his expertise or lack theirof.

I meant his authority as a religious figurehead. In Iran, going against the Ayatollah is considered going against Islam. That keeps alot of people in line.

[NAVFC]

and in the jpost..
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1245184863842&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull



WHo here wants to bet that Mr Mousavi will not choose exile, but instead will cave, thus ending the Iran election crisis?

[Ya-ta Boy]

[Ya-ta Boy]

Supreme leader: Iran vote was "definitive victory"

TEHRAN, Iran � Iran's supreme leader said Friday that there was "definitive victory" and no rigging in disputed presidential elections, offering no concession to protesters demanding the vote be canceled and held again.

In his first public address since demonstrators flooded the streets, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said protests should cease and the opposition must pursue its complaints within the confines of the cleric-led ruling system.

He said protesters would be "held responsible for chaos if they didn't end" days of massive demonstrations...

Khamenei said official results showing a landslide for hard-line President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad were beyond question.

"There is 11 million votes difference, Khamenei said. "How one can rig 11 million votes?"

He blamed Great Britain and Iran's external enemies for trying to foment unrest but said Iran would not see a second revolution like those that transformed the countries of the former Soviet Union.

He remained staunch in his defense of Ahmadinejad, saying his views were closer to the president's than to those of Hashemi Rafsanjani, a powerful patron of opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi.

He reiterated that he had ordered the country's highest electoral authority to pursue election complaints.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090619/ap_on_re_mi_ea/ml_iran_election

These sound like the words of a desperate man. First he proclaimed victory within hours of the polls closing, then reversed himself and said an investigation could take place; now he's saying the investigation can take place but there's no reason for it. A lot like your dad saying, "Because I said so."

It's about 3PM in Tehran and no reports of major violence so far today--but still lots of time, although it is Friday. There's another protest rally called for Saturday. That might be the deciding day. If Mousavi can get a major turnout then Khemani will either have to crush it and lose all moral authority or lose all governing authority by not crushing it and crumble.

It feels like July 13, 1789.

[bacasper]

This may be of interest.

Iran Election and the Twitter Revolution

Posted: 2009/06/18
From: Mathaba


This article of collected references shows that far from being a "revolution" fanned by Twitter and Facebook, these (un)social media networks delude only themselves, some of their followers, the western media networks (as we shall demonstrate) and even, it seems, western intelligence agencies.

The opposition to democracy in Iran, we will show, has long been established and comes from the west, while neither Twitter nor Facebook pose any real threat.

The greater danger comes from gullible western "MSM" news networks giving in to the temptation of false information from unlimited fake accounts set up by intelligence agencies and activists and their uncritical subservience to those who finance them for "New World Order" objectives.

Don't be a useful idiot

Let us break a few assumptions that western TV couch and internet potatoes have about Iran. For those who realize that taking a position and voicing it toward others over the Internet is a responsibility which requires some informed opinion, you'll find the links and references in this document of great assistance.

For those analysts and researchers with time and resources to do it, please use the information from the below links to compile articles that we can publish, to put into perspective the US-Israeli sponsored (and failed) coup attempt in Iran. One researcher has already done so and meets those standards of journalism which the MSM have long ago abandoned. Read it and share it!


Twitter myths

First, we'd like to dispel a myth about Twitter's popularity. The vast majority of Twitter accounts are dormant, most people tweet once at most and then never again. Only 10% of twitter users make up for 90% of all messages ("tweets"). So, get real and accept the evidence: Twitter is not so big.

Second, most Twitterers follower numbers mean nothing. Most accounts we've looked at have the vast majority of followers using automated bots: a great many users now sign up to free "get followers fast" services (which also, by the way, often steal their usernames and passwords). These followers are therefore not real, since almost none of them who are following over 100 users will be able to read your tweets unless they have a full time team whose job it is to do just that. Only companies using Twitter for customer service will employ people to do this. So, most of those accounts with large follower numbers are just concentrating on building follower numbers to feel important, or to look like they have influence, but in reality have little or no audience actually reading their tweets.

We conducted a simple and manual experiment at Mathaba using an additional account created for the purpose of the experiment, and we got past 500 followers in just under 2 hours of fairly relaxed following of just under 1,000 other users with one person working at a leisurely pace. The vast majority of these were automatic "follow-backs" which follow back anyone that follows them - automated software. If we can do that in under 2 hours manually, think what an automated software program can do - it can generate huge amounts of followers each day.


Those followers that are real, after discounting the great number of deluded "get rich quick Internet Marketing Experts and Entrepreneurs" and "F#@k Britney Vids" and other pornography or commercial spamming accounts, are indeed not many at all.

Third, Iranians do not tweet in English, but in Farsi, and you have absolutely no way to know that a certain Twitterer is genuine or fake, nor male or female, nor where they are located. Only a tiny minority of Iranians have even heard of Twitter or FaceBook.

Fourth, there is plenty of software around that simply puts out lots of messages at timed intervals under multiple accounts. Most use it for totally ineffective "marketing" and call themselves "entrepreneurs" and believe they're making "free money" - yes we did say delusional westerners. A few behind Iran's "Twitter Revolution" use it to mislead the ignorant soccer mum westerner and more importantly, to mislead the great western 3-letter MSM news networks.

Fifth, if there is any real Green Revolution, it is the one started more than 20 years ago for genuine democracy, human rights and freedoms, and which Mathaba continues until this day. You can find out more about its principles here and here and you can support it here. (Millions of Twitter users have already colored their avatars green tint or night vision in solidarity with the genuine Green Revolution


The Truth is Out There

article continues and many links at link