Korean Job Discussion Forums

[Xerxes]

Fox, North Korea is not going to invade South Korea anytime soon, and the "saber rattling" they've been doing is testing nuclear weapons and shooting rockets into the Pacific Ocean. Provocative actions, but not actions, precursors, to its invasion of the South or shooting Japan or the US with rockets. Not so far, anyway. Invading North Korea now, Fox, would be justified as much as the 2nd Bush 2nd invasion of Iraq was justified, but not from reason of real concern that the North would cross over its boarders with its military or shoot an errant missile in anyone's direction.

That is why I say invasion is not an option, just like invasion of Iraq should not have been an option the second time, but the first time it did itself invade Kuwait initially to instigate the whole thing. 1st Bush right, 2nd Bush wrong, unless you're an oilman, then the whole conversation changes to one of economy and an abstract and overly encompassing notion of "national interests."

They aren't going to shoot or invade anybody, so why even discuss invasion, is my point, to make it the most clear and apparent. They are skirting anything short of inviting invasion so that they can get compensation. Their country's export of choice is, it seems, rockets and nuclear technology.

[Fox]

[Fox]

[NAVFC]

[Xerxes]

I agree that invasion may come in various ways, NAVFC, whether with a surgical strike instigating the need for invasion or with a unilateral invasion outright. I was here in Korea in 1994 when Clinton had almost taken the US into invasion mode into Korea, and he was well justified to think so, but the mood of the country then was total panic among many of the people here. The panic, I think, came from North Korea having a new saber to rattle with its suspected nuclear power and the South and the US having a surprise at that newness.

But we�ve seen this before, for over ten years in fact, so Fox, it isn�t incontrovertible proof, but if the North wanted to make a military excursion to the South, it would have done so already. Their militaristic attempt to �unite the motherland� in 1950 ended disastrously, and their belief that it would go any better the second time around is not reasonable, even to them. Despite that the North wants to seem very irrational and belligerent, it is very different with them than with other belligerent regimes of rogue states: they are very rational, in a twisted way.

Because of that, I think that defanging North Korea of its nuclear capabilities should work better with it than with any other country in history. My point is that, if we can�t negotiate North Korea out of its nuclear weapons, than who can we? If we can�t denuclearize any state of its nuclear weapons, should we go to DEFCON 1 right away after a rogue state�s nuclear testing?

Can diplomacy actually work? And if so, in what specific way can it?

I propose researching and starting with what makes North Korea really steamed: freezing all its assets in foreign banks (Macao's Banco Delta), threatening to and boarding its ships suspected of carrying its favorite export of trade (vis a vis the PSI treaty), or informing the mass North Korean citizenry of how much better it really is outside of their terrible state (private Sork church people sending balloons filled with Sork propaganda). The answer isn�t in DOING those things, of course, but it does hint at what it is the most fearful of, and that knowledge gives us a clue of what really could unravel their posturing and bombast, or even what could dissolve the regime without the severe blowback expected of a sudden implosion of the country--or of an invasion of it.

[Fox]

[mises]

Did you enlist yet?

[mises]

[Yesterday]

The next one is supposed to be the "possible missle strike on Hawaii or Guam" on July 04th (in 2 weeks time)

its all over the major world news - but not on Daves? why?

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/06/18/north-korea-may-fire-a-mi_n_217293.html

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2009/06/20/military-officials-hawaii-anti-missile-safeguard/

http://news.aol.com/article/n-korea-missile-hawaii/527048

[NAVFC]

"Only China can deal with the DPRK and guide it to a gradual opening. The United States must remove herself from the situation. Clinton was right in avoiding that situation. DPRK having nukes is a lesser evil than Seoul being partially destroyed and the US being involved in a ground war in the north. "

GOnna have to disagree Mises.. a cash strapped nation willing to do anything for cash in possession of nukes and the technology to delvier them is a much more severe threat then you realize, especially in the long term.

Again, Clinton knew this which is why the war plans were drawn up. The only reason we didnt go to war with North Korea then is because a deal was made, so your saying that clinton stayed out of the situation is incorrect- clinton and the US were very much involved. Hwever Clinton didnt know that the North would reneg on the deal.

[mises]

We have to evils. War with the DPRK or the status quo. Pick your poison. I live in North America, so war will only really impact my taxes (and maybe my neighbors kids, if it gets out of hand).

China is best suited to deal with the DPRK IMO. China is a powerful country now. We don't need to police NE Asia any longer.

[Fox]

[Steelrails]

delete edit

[Steelrails]

I'm going to repost one I did on this forum from another similar topic.

Let's look at things from the North Korean perspective:

I am facing an army (The South) that is better trained, better equipped, better fed, has better logistics, more high technology and powerful allies OBLIGATED (by treaty) to go to its defense. The population of South Korea outnumbers me by 2-1, has a superior industrial base, and holds currency reserves that I could only dream about. My main adversary- South Korea, sent 350,000 soliders to the Vietnam War, where they achieved the same kill ratio as the vaunted American Army, in addition to being more capable at 'policing'. Their senior officers are veterans of that conflict. They have also deployed to Gulf War 2 and Afghanistan (whose rugged terrain would prepare them for this kind of conflcit) In contrast my army has sat around since the Korean War (except for the occasional foray of 20 nutjobs)

The last nation to try a war with a situation similar to mine was Iraq and look where that got them. Remember the big bad Iraqi Army in 1990? With its million man army, stockpiles of chem weapons, and battle-hardened soldiers?- How did that one go?

I have to defend long stretches of coastline against amphibious assault. In all likelihood within the first 36 hours of war 90% of my armor, artillery, air force and navy will be wiped out. The discipline of my troops is uncertain. Our supplies low.

My few deterrents consist of bombarding the capital city with conventional artillery or using Nuclear/Biological/Chemical weapons, the use of which will result in North Koreas annihilation. The artillery bombardment I know is just a facade because most of my artillery will be destroyed/unreliable/not able to deploy/ineffective/unable to sustain the necessary rate of fire. My nuclear weapons may or may not work. All the scientists tell me they will, but I have seen the tests myself and know that they are very unreliable.

In addition, as leader of North Korea, I would have to worry that any attempt to start a war on this scale would result in a coup attempt by some faction within my government. Not only would I have to guard that long coast, I would also have to guard the interior against an uprising, as well as the Chinese (my unreliable 'allies') border against an exterior sponsored coup.

Or we can believe the Fear Factory and look at the situation like this-

Kim Jong Il has 1 million fanatical stormtroopers that dont need food or supplies or command and control. They will live of the land. They are the next Mongol horde. The rest of the world will sit in stunned shock as nuclear warheads and chemical weapons rain down on Seoul. His nukes aren't the duds they seem, but in fact he has 1000 ready to rain down on Washington. All of sudden North Korea's missile guidence systems turn out to be automatic bullseye computers. Of course, the invasion movements of the North Koreans are cloaked from U.S. satellited thnx to Pyongyang Manufacturing Bureau's alien-based technology. Oh and North Korea finds a leprechaun and has 100 million barrels of petrol gifted to it.

Of course they will have the backing of China, who believes that this is the perfect time to start a nuclear war. That whole making money hand over fist and transition into Totalitarian Global Capitalism was just a facade. Meanwhile the concept of the Mutual Defense Treaty completely disintigrates in the world. The entire International treaty and agreement system that has bound NATO/The UN will crumble. In fact the whole Westphalian system is jeopardized.

The South Korean army will crumble/defect. North Koreas 1960s era MIG 21s will swat down the modern F-15s/16s that South Korea has like flies. North Koreas fast attack craft will crush the U.S. and S.K.'s guided missile destroyers and cruisers like 50 pirahnas attacking a shark. Unguided and minimally effective artillery (what artillery has almost always been) is only for the west- the fanatical NK Cyborgs can aim with perfect percision.
Most units (battalion size and below) can go at most 40 miles/day unopposed (usually 15), but the entire NK army will blitzkrieg at 100 miles/day through all opposition to strike everywhere simultaneously.

The Foreign teachers of Korea who survive the initial wave will be turned over by the South Koreans to be placed in reeducation camps, betrayed by the South Korean populace that is secretly in league with the North Koreans- for there are millions of them. Yes, those same people who spend their money on Louis Vutton handbags, were in fact NK agents just trying to keep up appearances. They crave a lifestyle of rice paddy farming and straw hats. The nouveau riche that we see everywhere all of a sudden gleefully hand it over to Dear Leader.

The cryogenically frozen Lenin, Stalin, Mao and Kim Il Sung wake up and assume control of the New Communist Army. Castro's disease is a fake and in fact there are 500 cloaked nukes on Cuba, ready to wipe out America at Kim Jong Il's command.

PLEASE people, get a clue before you spread more panic and fear. No need for fear/warmongering.

ARTILLERY - If you want to know the limits of artillery effectivness look at the statistics from the 2006 Lebanese-Israeli war. Israel fired 100,000 artillery shells. Hezbollah fired 5,000 rockets. Total casualties- 3,000. The distances are similar witht he NK, the DMZ and Seoul. Economic damage was heavy, but not catastrophic. No worse than a moderate earthquake.

North Korea is estimated to be able to fire 250,000 rounds at Seoul. This assumes that everything goes ideally. Most people who aren't warmongering scoff at that number.

As for blowing up reactor will result in spreading 'massive fallout'- uh no dude. Most reactors will 'scram' in the event of a malfunction. Even Chernobyl, while nasty, was not unbearable for a nation. It was milder than the pesticide explosion at Bohpal. Fallout effects would likely be comparable to a Los Alamos testing.

The war by all accounts looks like it would fail militarily and diplomatically for the NorKs.

Yes they can play other games, but not a war game.

Fox and others- control your emotions. We don't need to sow panic at a time like this. We don't need paranoia. Do a sober analysis of the situation and you'll see that NOTHING IS GOING TO HAPPEN.

I await the fearmongers strategic, tactical, and diplomatic analysis of North Korea's elite legions and its leader. I'm sure we'll here something about 'fanatcial and bloodthirsty' or 'sorely underestimate'. Right. Okay.

[mises]