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rapier
Joined: 16 Feb 2003
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Posted: Fri Jan 30, 2004 2:43 am Post subject: |
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| I have a new slant on this: China will develop rapidly and start destroying their environment, doubling the worlds output of noxious gasses into the atmosphere. As the greenhouse effect runs out of control, whatever language you speak will become irrelevant. The job requirements for astronauts sent to populate and colonise Mars will be "Native English speaker required". |
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mithridates

Joined: 03 Mar 2003 Location: President's office, Korean Space Agency
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Posted: Fri Jan 30, 2004 5:34 am Post subject: |
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Let's look at GDP:
US 10 trillion
China 6 trillion
With a 3.5% growth rate that would be 14.6 in ten years and with a 8% growth rate that gives China 14 in the same period of time.
There's also the fact that China happens to be right next door, and also that Chinese makes up 70% of the vocabulary you see in Korean. If Korea were to reinstate hanja education once again, learning Chinese would become a lot easier, and it already is easier than English. When dealing with China, it might be easier to just cut out the middle man (English) and deal directly.
I think it depends on the country, but it looks like Chinese and English are going to assume equal status in Korea and Japan. I doubt that Chinese will just step in and replace English; it is possible to have a strong emphasis on two foreign languages at the same time, like in many ex-soviet countries. They promote both English and Russian education (Russia being next door) at the same time. Actually, they don't so much promote Russian language education as just keep it at the same level. Everybody already knows Russian... |
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The Man known as The Man

Joined: 29 Mar 2003 Location: 3 cheers for Ted Haggard oh yeah!
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Posted: Sat Jan 31, 2004 11:19 am Post subject: |
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China won't be a major plyer for at least 30+ years with their ridiculous one child policy. apart from the obvious demographic messup, there will be a larger male population to the point of the country being run by social retards.
Just like Canada the past 10 years. |
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mithridates

Joined: 03 Mar 2003 Location: President's office, Korean Space Agency
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Posted: Sun Feb 01, 2004 8:05 am Post subject: |
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That seems like a small bump in their path to being a world power...doesn'
t mere economic strength make one an automatic player regardless of demographics? |
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kiwiboy_nz_99

Joined: 05 Jul 2003 Location: ...Enlightenment...
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Posted: Sun Feb 01, 2004 10:03 am Post subject: |
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| The future's so bright, I got to wear shades ... |
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Skarp
Joined: 22 Aug 2003
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Posted: Sun Feb 01, 2004 4:18 pm Post subject: |
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English has its own momentum, aside from the drive of communicating with native speakers.
Sure - many Koreans want to learn English to escape to the US or Canada. And if these economies crash then they might not want to do this so much - but then again if they crash they will bring down the temple so they will still be riding high long into the middle of this century....
But - I understand more people use English as a second or third language than as a mother tongue anyway. Like the use of French by cultured people long into the 19th and even early 20th Century.....
.....ironically, when Europe was in arms against Napoleon nearly 200 years ago, the various Generals from Britain, Russia, Germany and Austria etc. often communicated in French...
Now as the leaders of various asian countries struggle to end US hegemony, they speak together in (American) English.
And we are the quislings who are helping them do it.
Cool thread
Skarp |
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The Man known as The Man

Joined: 29 Mar 2003 Location: 3 cheers for Ted Haggard oh yeah!
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Posted: Mon Feb 02, 2004 12:42 pm Post subject: |
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| mithridates wrote: |
That seems like a small bump in their path to being a world power...doesn'
t mere economic strength make one an automatic player regardless of demographics? |
No.
Read Boom bust and echo and fololow the trneds.
And, look at the greates coutnry in thw world and there wonderful universal healthcare system-its falling apart because its been gov't run for decades and the demographics don't favour it any more.
And, post World War I France-you cannot escape a demographic abberration ala China like that over the long term |
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