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[Ya-ta Boy]

Another good article by Reza Aslan and Trita Parsi:

The End of the Beginning

Iran's popular uprising, which began after the June 12 election, may be heading for a premature ending. In many ways, the Ahmadinejad government has succeeded in transforming what was a mass movement into dispersed pockets of unrest. Whatever is now left of this mass movement is now leaderless, unorganized -- and under the risk of being hijacked by groups outside Iran in pursuit of their own political agendas...


If the exiled opposition groups and their neo-conservative backers in the United States prevail in aiding the Ahmadinejad government, what started out as the largest Iranian mass movement since 1979 may end up as little more than the student demonstrations of 1999. Which is to say, an instance of hopes raised, then dashed.
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2009/06/26/the_end_of_the_beginning

[Ya-ta Boy]

Battle for Iran shifts from the streets to the heart of power

Rafsanjani's manoeuvres against Khamenei come as tensions between the speaker of the parliament, Ali Larijani, and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad also appeared to be coming to a head...


In the past few days, Larijani - who was fired by Ahmadinejad as chief negotiator on nuclear issues with the west - has announced his intention of setting up a parliamentary committee to examine the recent post-election violence in an "even-handed way". In response, Ahmadinejad supporters within the parliament have discussed the possibility of impeaching Larijani.

In a move with even greater potential significance, according to several reports Rafsanjani has been lobbying fellow members of the powerful 86-strong Assembly of Experts, which he chairs, to replace Khamenei as the supreme leader with a small committee of senior ayatollahs, of which Khamenei would be a member. If Rafsanjani were successful, the constitutional change would mean a profound shift in the balance of power within Iran's theocratic regime.

"Although Hashemi Rafsanjani is not a popular politician in Iran any more, he is the only hope that Iranians have ... for the annulment of the election," said an Iranian political analyst who asked not be named. "He is the only one who people think is able to stand against the supreme leader."

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/jun/28/iran-mahmoud-ahmadinejad

I'm not convinced this thing is over. Demonstrations continue, although in other forms and political maneuvering is continuing. It looks like any little spark could set it all off again, although it's a lot harder to convince people to take to the streets and die for reform rather than for revolution.

[Ya-ta Boy]

Things seem to still be bubbling in Iran. Here is a report from the NYTimes which Nico Pitney says is important.

Leading Clerics Defy Ayatollah on Disputed Iran Election

The most important group of religious leaders in Iran called the disputed presidential election and the new government illegitimate on Saturday, an act of defiance against the country�s supreme leader and the most public sign of a major split in the country�s clerical establishment.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/05/world/middleeast/05iran.html

Nico also has this posted (3:05AM): "Speaking at a meeting of medical school deans, Ahmadinejad said Iran "will soon pursue a new round of diplomatic activity" amid a new position of strength for the Iranian government, the Iranian Student News Agency quotes him as saying.

"I will go to the United Nations and will invite Obama to negotiations," Ahmadinejad said, adding that such talks would be "in front of the international media, not a sit-down behind closed doors in order to talk about matters."

If he really said that about 'a new position of strength', he's pretty much admitting that the government is weaker than before, which of course it is. Whistling past the graveyard.

If anyone is interested, Afshin Molavi's book 'The Soul of Iran' is terrific. I had looked at it before on Amazon, but when Fareed Zakaria said it was the best thing available on Iran, I ordered it. It's partly a travel book since Molavi organized it around pilgrimages he took to various shrines around the country, but it is mainly conversations with the people. The discontent runs deep and wide if the author is reporting fairly.

[Ya-ta Boy]

Here's something from Andrew Sullivan that may be important:

"Some reports are coming in of a softening in tone in a speech from the Supreme Leader. The full speech is not yet translated but here's the money quote filtering out:

"It is natural that when some people's favorite candidate fails to receive enough votes they become emotional and express anger, that does NOT make them anarchists. All the candidates are within the family of the regime and this has nothing to do with the foreigners."

Waiting for confirmation, but it sounds like a retreat to me."

http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/

It sounds like one to me, too. It's the first conciliatory thing I've seen from the government.

[Ya-ta Boy]

Here is a memorable story from the Jerusalem Post:

"Just yesterday, I saw four plainclothes [members of the security forces] harassing two young men. The two young men had their hands tied behind their backs and were crying. I went to up the security forces and told then to let the boys ago, even though my two daughters were trying to hold me back. The security men grabbed us by the arms and started calling for reinforcements.

"I screamed at them: 'How dare you grab my two daughters, who have never been touched by any man, and how dare you touch me? I have never been touched by any man except my husband.' They let go of our arms and I told them again: Let the boys go."

She said the security men were preparing to drag the two young men away, nonetheless, so "I took out a picture of the Imam from my purse and the Koran. At that point five more of the riot police came... I said to them, 'Do you think this is what the Imam wanted?' I waved the Koran and told them to be afraid of God's wrath in the next life, because Khamenei's jurisdiction ends there."

The woman said that the officer apparently in charge said the pair were being arrested because they had been influenced by outside forces to destroy the regime.

"So I said to him: Then I am out to destroy the regime, the mullahs at the mosque I attend are out to destroy the regime, the ayatollahs in Qom are out to destroy the regime. And if this regime is a military dictatorship, then it should be destroyed."

She said she asked the security personnel if they had read Khomeini's texts. "They of course said no." She said she promised them that if they could find teachings of his which justified what they were doing, she would "personally help beat our fellow countrymen with batons."

At this point, the officer in charge told the others to let the two young men go, she said. "Then he pulled me aside and said, very emotionally, that he has three hungry children and a wife living in a small poor town outside Teheran. He said his salary had been tripled since the protests erupted and that he feels numb to everything around him.

"Before he left, he asked me to pray for him to make better choices in the future."

http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?pagename=JPost/JPArticle/ShowFull&cid=1246443758013

[Ya-ta Boy]

There were demonstrations and tear gas on the streets of Tehran again Thursday, the 10th anniversary of a student uprising in '99. The headline is misleading because the reports talk of thousands, the videos show more than 'hundreds' at many demonstrations all over the city.

Hundreds protest in Iran, defying crackdown vow

"Police, protect us," some of the demonstrators chanted, asking the forces not to move against them.

The protesters appeared to reach several thousand, but their full numbers were difficult to determine, since marches took place in several parts of the city at once and mingled with passers-by. There was no immediate word on arrests or injuries.

It did not compare to the hundreds of thousands who joined the marches that erupted after the June 12 presidential election, protesting what the opposition said were fraudulent results. But it was a show of determination despite a crackdown that has cowed protesters, who have not held a significant rally for the past 11 days.

Onlookers and pedestrians often gave their support. In side streets near the university, police were chasing young activists, and when they caught one, passers-by chanted "let him go, let him go," until the policemen released him. Elsewhere, residents let fleeing demonstrators slip into their homes to elude police, witnesses said.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/huff-wires/20090709/ml-iran-election/

I've seen several stories in the last couple of days about police releasing people in similar situations.

[Ya-ta Boy]

Here's a good opinion piece from Doug Bandow that argues against the neocon plan to bomb Iran. It doesn't really fit this thread but doesn't fit anywhere else.

Iran's Failed Revolution
By Doug Bandow

This history continues to afflict America's relationship with Iranians. Persistent threats of military strikes and cheery jingles about bombing campaigns-which undoubtedly would have killed some of the demonstrators whose cause the U.S. government now champions-also taint Washington's call for democracy. So, too, the preelection admission of such neoconservatives as Max Boot and Daniel Pipes that they would prefer the reelection of Iranian President Ahmadinejad. Not all Iranians are likely to see Washington as a disinterested advocate of the best interests of the Iranian people.

Americans should still encourage a freer society in Iran. Liberty is a principle that transcends country and culture. Former-Prime Minister Mir Hossein Moussavi uneasily wears the opposition mantle, but the recent election obviously was unfair: even the Guardian Council made the astonishing admission that more than 100 percent of the eligible voters cast ballots in fifty cities. The burden of proof was on Ahmadinejad to demonstrate that he would have won even without fraud, but the regime offered threats instead of evidence.

More important, the overall system is rigged, with tight control over who can even run for office. The most important policies are set outside of government. Many of the thugs deployed to protect the regime represent a parallel Islamic ruling structure-beyond even the theoretical control of the state. The regime has compounded its abuses by rounding up human-rights activists, journalists and other critics. Washington has nothing at stake in the particular form of political system in Tehran. But Americans should take the side of individual liberty and representative government.

http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2009/07/09/irans_failed_revolution_96902.html

[Ya-ta Boy]

Friday Surprise in Iran?

Ali-Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, the second most powerful man in Iran (after the Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei) and one of the principal figures behind the anti-Ahmadinejad movement that has rocked the country over the last month, will deliver the Friday Sermon in Tehran this week, the first time he has been offered the prestigious pulpit in years.

Even more surprising, sources in Iran have confirmed that both the main reformist challenger Mir-Hossein Mousavi and former president Mohammad Khatami will also attend the sermon. In fact, Mousavi�s website is encouraging all of his supporters�that is, the hundreds of thousands of protesters who flooded the streets of Iran in the wake of the disputed presidential elections�to come along, too. Both Reuters and the Los Angeles Times report the rumors of Mousavi and Khatami attending.

The presence in one place of the three main leaders of the protest movement (something that has not happened since the presidential elections) has fueled speculation about what exactly Rafsanjani plans on saying. Could a compromise between the two camps be in the works? Or will this be the start of a new wave of challenges to the regime?

http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2009-07-16/friday-surprise-in-iran/?cid=hp:mainpromo2

Hmmm...three leaders together, an invitation for mass crowds, a controversial speaker. It could be interesting.

[Ya-ta Boy]

While checking for what Rafsanjani said I ran into these POEMS FOR THE ROOFTOPS OF IRAN. There are 4 of them, recorded last month. Very well worth your time.

Those of June 20 and 21 are the most haunting. http://www.youtube.com/view_play_list?p=F76F3C07BB38A9AF&annotation_id=annotation_379514&feature=iv


This piece from Laura Secor is also good:

"The less we hear from Iran, the easier it is to presume that the regime�s strong-arm tactics have succeeded in putting down the protest movement. But the silence we hear is only our own. The protest movement that exploded into Iran�s streets in June was not a momentary flash of anger. It would not have been so heart-stopping if it were. Rather, for the segment of the populace engaged in the protests, it was the culmination of decades of frustrated hopes and indignities. Among the protesters were those who had placed their trust in the reform movement, which had promised evolutionary change through legal means; these people were already bitterly disappointed by the end of the Khatami years, in 2005, and had, with some difficulty, mustered the will and the optimism to participate in the electoral process once again. What propelled them to the streets was the long, slow burn of accumulated grievance, and there is little reason to believe that their fury has so swiftly expended itself. "

http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/newsdesk/2009/07/laura-secor-behind-irans-silence.html

[Ya-ta Boy]

Rafsanjani's speech is producing different interpretations of what he said. Time says he was conciliatory, calling for unity. Reza Aslan says the speech was pointedly critical of the government.

Iran's Rafsanjani, in Speech, Shies Away from Confrontation
"In the end, though, the speech was more conciliatory than confrontational. Rafsanjani made several nods to opposition sentiment, acknowledging that the events of recent weeks constituted a "crisis" for the Islamic Republic. He also used strong terms to deplore the violence that broke out. But he praised the government's preparations for the election and said it occurred in an atmosphere of "healthy competition" and "unprecedented freedom."

Crucially, he appeared to call for the opposition to back down in exchange for concessions from the government - the release of opposition prisoners and a relaxation of controls over the media. "My sisters and brothers, we have to find a way of maintaining unity," he said. "For the protection of the state and our values, we have to seek to maintain our unity for future generations." This would be possible if the will of the people is respected, he said, but he made no mention of allegations of electoral fraud. Indeed, his call for unity in the face of outside threats even played into the government's narrative that the postelection unrest was not an expression of popular will but the result of foreign agitation. "

http://news.yahoo.com/s/time/20090717/wl_time/08599191124400;_ylt=Ahedktyetwm4X7hQdBcZfPGs0NUE;_ylu=X3oDMTJuYzhraTU5BGFzc2V0Ay90aW1lLzIwMDkwNzE3L3dsX3RpbWUvMDg1OTkxOTExMjQ0MDAEcG9zAzEEc2VjA3luX2hlYWRsaW5lX2xpc3QEc2xrA2lyYW5zcmFmc2Fuag--

Former Iranian President Blasts Government
In the end, Ali-Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani did not disappoint. For a man who has made a career out of mediating from the middle and playing both sides, Rafsanjani delivered an unusually pointed criticism of the Iranian regime�s handling of the election crisis. He explicitly condemned the Guardian Council�s haphazard investigation into claims of election fraud and demanded the immediate release of all the protesters who had been arrested and detained by the Revolutionary Guard. �We do not need people in prison for [demonstrating],� Rafsanjani said. �Let�s allow them to return to their families.�

Perhaps the most intriguing part of the sermon came when Rafsanjani hinted that progress has been made in his attempts to come up with some kind of compromise with the regime over the election crisis, though he remained elusive about what that could possibly entail. �I have some suggestions,� he said, in an oblique reference to his work behind the scenes with Iran�s powerbrokers. �I have spoken to some members of the Expediency Council and the Assembly of Experts about them too.�

It was this comment that sparked the most interesting of the chants and slogans that repeatedly interrupted Rafsanjani�s sermon: �People didn�t get killed to make concessions!� the overwhelmingly pro-Mousavi crowd shouted, an indication that the opposition may no longer be in the mood for a political compromise.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2009-07-17/former-iranian-president-blasts-government/?cid=hp:beastoriginalsL1

Neither side can be very happy with the results of the speech. Nothing was resolved. The stalemate continues.

[bucheon bum]

Iran Tries to Suppress Rape Allegations