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Carl_00
Joined: 18 May 2009
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 Posted: Mon Jul 13, 2009 5:13 am Post subject: The Won in free fall. |
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Why?
Over the last couple of weeks my 1,9milW has gone from being around �1025 to �899. I'm in no rush to transfer money home but still...this sucks. |
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sharkey
Joined: 12 Oct 2008
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| Posted: Mon Jul 13, 2009 6:12 am Post subject: |
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Thats what you get for using the pound!  |
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Carl_00
Joined: 18 May 2009
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| Posted: Mon Jul 13, 2009 4:58 pm Post subject: |
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And it continues to drop.  I'm just going to try and forget about it for awhile.... |
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kiknkorea
Joined: 16 May 2008
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| Posted: Mon Jul 13, 2009 5:30 pm Post subject: |
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What great timing, with vacation coming up. 
Exploring Korea has never been more practical! |
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calicoe
Joined: 23 Dec 2008
Location: South Korea
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| Posted: Mon Jul 13, 2009 6:34 pm Post subject: |
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| Tell me about it. I just exchanged won for euros on Friday; it wasn't pretty. But, I'm tired of limiting my vacations to Asian countries ... and I will stay with a friend for most of the time, which will help a lot. |
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Goku
Joined: 10 Dec 2008
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| Posted: Mon Jul 13, 2009 6:49 pm Post subject: |
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I'm curious,
do you guys think that the falling won has anything to do with the wave of teachers going back home for the summer or returning to their home countries?
Personally I don't there is enough money there to affect the prices but someone posed this and I thought it was interesting |
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oskinny1
Joined: 10 Nov 2006
Location: Right behind you!
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| Posted: Mon Jul 13, 2009 7:02 pm Post subject: |
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| Goku wrote: |
I'm curious,
do you guys think that the falling won has anything to do with the wave of teachers going back home for the summer or returning to their home countries?
Personally I don't there is enough money there to affect the prices but someone posed this and I thought it was interesting |
Let's make up a number... 10,000 teachers are leaving the country. They each have W10,000,000 that they send home. That is W100,000,000,000. If that is enough to make the won drop we are all in big trouble. |
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typo
Joined: 16 Jun 2009
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| Posted: Mon Jul 13, 2009 11:07 pm Post subject: |
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| Goku wrote: |
I'm curious,
do you guys think that the falling won has anything to do with the wave of teachers going back home for the summer or returning to their home countries?
Personally I don't there is enough money there to affect the prices but someone posed this and I thought it was interesting |
This has got to be one of the most ridiculous money-related questions on this site. Please tell me you weren't seriously proposing this question. |
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Goku
Joined: 10 Dec 2008
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| Posted: Mon Jul 13, 2009 11:15 pm Post subject: |
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| typo wrote: |
| Goku wrote: |
I'm curious,
do you guys think that the falling won has anything to do with the wave of teachers going back home for the summer or returning to their home countries?
Personally I don't there is enough money there to affect the prices but someone posed this and I thought it was interesting |
This has got to be one of the most ridiculous money-related questions on this site. Please tell me you weren't seriously proposing this question. |
If you read my post, I just said I don't think there is enough money to affect prices.
But if you're going the condesding superiority route of pretending to understand currency exchange, I can play.
"Yes, yes I am" |
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Rusty Shackleford
Joined: 08 May 2008
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| Posted: Mon Jul 13, 2009 11:30 pm Post subject: |
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| Goku wrote: |
I'm curious,
do you guys think that the falling won has anything to do with the wave of teachers going back home for the summer or returning to their home countries?
Personally I don't there is enough money there to affect the prices but someone posed this and I thought it was interesting |
No.
It's not even interesting. The ESL industry doesn't even represent an arse hair on the posterior of Lotte. Let alone any sort of significance to the entire Korean economy. |
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shifter2009
Joined: 03 Sep 2006
Location: wisconsin
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| Posted: Mon Jul 13, 2009 11:44 pm Post subject: |
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| Rusty Shackleford wrote: |
| Goku wrote: |
I'm curious,
do you guys think that the falling won has anything to do with the wave of teachers going back home for the summer or returning to their home countries?
Personally I don't there is enough money there to affect the prices but someone posed this and I thought it was interesting |
No.
It's not even interesting. The ESL industry doesn't even represent an arse hair on the posterior of Lotte. Let alone any sort of significance to the entire Korean economy. |
Well it is something like a 12 billion dollar industry, lets give it some credit |
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Ya-ta Boy
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994
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| Posted: Tue Jul 14, 2009 1:35 am Post subject: |
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The Won rose W12 in value against the US$.
An article I saw yesterday, when the Won took the big hit, said there was a general Asian-wide skepticism about the international economic recovery. |
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typo
Joined: 16 Jun 2009
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| Posted: Tue Jul 14, 2009 4:13 pm Post subject: |
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| shifter2009 wrote: |
| Rusty Shackleford wrote: |
| Goku wrote: |
I'm curious,
do you guys think that the falling won has anything to do with the wave of teachers going back home for the summer or returning to their home countries?
Personally I don't there is enough money there to affect the prices but someone posed this and I thought it was interesting |
No.
It's not even interesting. The ESL industry doesn't even represent an arse hair on the posterior of Lotte. Let alone any sort of significance to the entire Korean economy. |
Well it is something like a 12 billion dollar industry, lets give it some credit |
Sure, but how much of that goes into ESL salaries/benefits, rather than hogwan owners, taxes, texts/materials by Korean publishers? Then, of the money that goes to foreigners (a much, much smaller number) how much goes into costs that will be recycled back into the Korean economy (housing, food, entertainment). At the end of the day, even if all FTs saved half their income, the proportion of won that leaves the country is a tiny fraction compared to that 12 billion industry.
Goku's question is retarded, and I don't believe it's condescending to point out the absurdity of his question. But yes, let's play the condescending game: I'm no currency expert. The best I can do is rely on a small number of functioning neurons.
Btw, 12 billion USD? interesting. I guess i'm not that surprised---since you know that, do you also know korea's GNP? I'm lazy  |
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mises
Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired
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| Posted: Tue Jul 14, 2009 4:18 pm Post subject: |
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| 12 billion? No way Jose. That would mean it accounts for fully 1% of ROK GDP. |
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Goku
Joined: 10 Dec 2008
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| Posted: Tue Jul 14, 2009 5:23 pm Post subject: |
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Before I get into it, let me pre-empt as saying again, I don't believe that expats are affecting the price. But ANOTHER poster posed the question, and therefore I don't think the question was totally absurd as he had some critical points. I will speak from a devil's advocate point of view.
You're taking percentages of the entire GDP or industry (whatever the number is) rather the finer and more critical issue,
The price of Won is affected by other countries demand for Korean products, and the amount of Won they have in their own country.
When you say that it's part of a "12 billion dollar industry" yes that money get's recycled back into Korean economy but that's an irrelevant factor. It doesn't matter how big the actual industry is or of what percentage it is of that. None of that is traded or has any bearing to what affects the Korean won price. The daily trade volume is the what should be benchmarked
The price of currency, just like any good, is determined by supply and demand. If Korea keeps shoving Korean won hand over fist to America, and America doesn't want Korean goods, then the value of won goes down and down. Questionably, is the amount of returning expats enough to alter the won price?
We're ALL fudging numbers. We have no idea what the volume of trade daily is (aprox. 2.4 billion daily). But keep in mind a lot of expats will trade at almost ANY price. Sellers take advantage of this and raiseup prices. It's just not the amount is actually traded, but the willingness to pay high prices. Coupled with the fact that the demand for Korean products is lower, it's an exponential increase. Then there's "Investor fear" factor which is the snowball that affects all markets. If investors notice drastic increases in prices (let's say triggered by expats selling Korean won dollars) this could lead to a surge of larger currency sell offs by JP, Deustch bank, Citi group, etc.
In this recession, we could assume America has less demand for Korean products (pretty natural assumption, since Korea mostly exports luxuries not recession proof goods, LG, Samsung, and Hyundai are Korea's major exports) .
Right now, Expats going back to the home country cannot fight the exchange rate and have an increased "willingness" to pay higher prices. They will exchange for almost any rate. Taking into account as well of the heavy renewal rate of EPIK, SMOE, and GEPIK, it wouldn't be suprising that a lot of people are returning home for the summer. And a lot of them actually had to book their flights around the this time, this time when the won is dropping.
Of course I disagree with the said question, but it has merit like Shifter 2009 said.
Question again, is the EXPAT community exchanging currency a substaintal number? I don't think so, but how can I be sure if we don't know the numbers. The hypothesis is still valid until we have those figures.
So........ not ridiculous question. |
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